Aavas Financiers Limited IPO Message Board (Page 9)

There seems to be some game to trap investors by high qib figures on 3rd day. Be cautious !

Tomorrow, you will see the real action from QIB.. FII much interested in this counter, from NSE subscription data, FII has more shares bid for today.

Meeting with Rashesh Shah - Edelweiss Meet - Point 1 - Is the a liquidity Crisis in the Indian bond system?- Aboslutely YES. There is a crisis of confidence among lenders towards NBFC's in the short term capital market and funds are being raised at above 10% levels, the trigger was ofcourse the IIFS default which took place on the 8th of september and Icra downgraded ILFS to 'D Rating' on the 12th. This is normal after a default, it happened in 2008 banking crisis, it happened in 2013 after Amtek Auto Defaulted, its happening now. It never happened during demonetization because banks had to much money to borrow as CASA.

Point 2 - How long will this last and how will be the impact? - Normally these kind of liquidity freeze events last 1-6 months and NBFC's become cautious with thier capital for lending as they need to save their own franchisee rather than grow fast. (safety first). Even Edelweiss would be increasing liquidity from 10% of the book to 15%, Ofcourse growth would be affected for next 6 months till things normalize. Most NBFC's would report muted growth after Q2 Quarter for next 2 quarters

Points 3 - Will the NPA's rise if growth slows down - Aboslutely not, every crisis in the world with financials have happened when they were borrowing to underlying poor asset and the asset defaults which is not the case with these NBFCs, the problem is a short term liquidity problem due to a default, nothing long term.

Point 4 - Will the NIM compress- Not Really because they can pass on the rates to borrows easily except the housing finance market where banks are competition.

Point 5- Will banks stop borrowing to NBFC - For the Short term there would be some trouble but structurally there wont be any impact as RBI supports lending via NBFC. When a Bank lends to a NBFC and an NBFC lends to a SME, there are two capital adequency which are created i.e. 10% at the bank and 15% at the NBFC level. So a 1000 Crore loan directly to an SME by a bank would mean 900 Crores goes to the SME and 10% to the capital adequency where if the bank lends to an NBFC who then lends to an SME then 900 Crores would go the NBFC who would have to maintain 15% capital adequency of roughly 150 crores and 750 would go to the SME.

Also PSU banks don't have the capability to borrow directly to the SME and recover, they rather lend it to the NBFC and earn a cool 4-6% spread and no opex cost.

Point 6 - What will happen to smaller NBFC? - Well there would be a wipe out of capital for smaller NBFC companies for next 1-2 years. Everybody was started a lending business and then smaller guys won't find it easy to get funding from banks.

Conclusion - Overall the times are tough for NBFC for next 3 months, there is absolutely a confidence crisis in the system for the short term but its like a bumper on the Highway. We believe these kind of events test the viability for the business model and the larger NBFC's would come out stronger out of this and the solution is confidence. The corporate bond revival is a must for growth in NBFC's going forward.

AAVAS FINANCIERS LTD Subscription
26-9-2018 @ 06:31:55 PM
QIB => 0.8123
NII => 0.1191
RII => 0.0688
TOTAL => 0.2920

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)      0.8114
Non Institutional Investors(NII)      0.119
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)      0.0684
Employee Reserved      0
Reservation PortionShareholder      0
Total      0.2929

Qib shows confidant

Guys looking current market conditions and Nbfc shares volatility it will be better to stay away from this ipo.

hi folks,

This will be a flop IPO of 2018 like icici sec , indostar and many more..avoid this IPO

Aavas Financiers Limited IPO
Latest Subscription Figures as on Day 2 ( Second Day) @ 3:40 PM
QIB (NSE + BSE) = 0.17X
HNIs (NSE + BSE) = 0.02X
RIIs (NSE + BSE) = 0.05X
TOTAL (NSE + BSE) = 0.08X

AAVAS FINANCIERS LTD Subscription
26-9-2018 @ 03:24:30 PM
QIB => 0.1686
NII => 0.0243
RII => 0.0532
TOTAL => 0.0800

AAVAS FINANCIERS LIMITED IPO
Latest Subscription Figures as on Day 2 ( Second Day) @ 3:10 PM
QIB (NSE + BSE) = 0.17X
HNIs (NSE + BSE) = 0.02X
RIIs (NSE + BSE) = 0.05X
TOTAL (NSE + BSE) = 0.08X

Aavas Fin Ltd IPO day 2 @2 PM
QIB - 0.17X
HNI - 0.02X
RII - 0.04X
TOTAL - 0.07X

flop show

What are the subscription figures??. Till now

2-4 new low Aavas.. Ircon - 15

What to do in dhfl, should we buy more at this level, i am stuck at 400 lvl, pls advise me.

No

Accumulate stocks like DGFL, Yes Bank, Maruti etc. in this fall. All these are fundamentally strong companies and they will be the first to recover is market sentiment improves.

These stocks have potential to double in 2 years time

What is their P/BV. Top class NBFC's like DHFL is available at 1.3 times P/BV.

Its better to buy NBFC stock from secondary market

If it.may fail to get enough subscription
They can trim size of Ipo like ICICI SEC. did,!!!!

Most unlikely.

The issue will sail through.

RII will be under subscribed.

QIBs and NII/HNIs will make up the shortfall in RII categoty.

I also feel that it will be fully subscribed.

This IPO Reminds me Sheela Foam and Bandhan bank... SFL cam with IPO during the time of Demonetization correction , got subscribed only 35% under retail category and got listed at 35% Premium..Bandhan Bank came during the correction of March-2018 , during IPO time premium reduced due to market sentiment but listed at 100 Rs up and after that what happens that you all know.. Gut feeling says same thing gonna happen with this... Lets wait and watch..

Qib bidding early compare to Rii,hni

Aavas Fin Ltd IPO
GMP 15-20 (26/09/2018)

what is last GMP??

GMP 15 - 20