Varun Beverages Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 29)

Now up coming next season after diwali is cold season for beverages company,because normaly winter season is no demand for cold drinks.

IF THE PRICE OF VARUN ROUND ABOUT 250 TO 275 WILL BE GOOD

i wish gold is only 1000 per gram but it is not and wife still buying

Septa Ppl like harendra don''t buy even @1000 wishing it will do down furthur :)

Experts giving it valuation n comparing with FMCG companies .....but they forget to mention that there is no brand here with the company
Very capital intensive manufacturing
In FMCG brands have pricing power so they have 2 levers on margin price n volume but here in this company only lever is volume .....price will also be in pressure as Pepsi will focus on cost cuttings.
Just one rumour or news of Pepsi aligning towards another company can make this company share price to tank so its not a defensive play
May be its good for the flipper @525 but its surely not gonna outperform the MKT in medium term if it lists at premium

I AGREE 100% WITH THIS COMMENT 20% I WOULD SAY 25% THUMBS UP

This Company is a price taker at both ends...from vendors and customers...very difficult business! Pricing needs to be seen...

As per my calculation profit of not more than 300 cr this year ( septa calculation 325 cr now) coupled with no track record of past profitable performance .....that''s why retail potion is just 10% of issue size.....enterprise value of around 12000 cr ....financially does it make sense to invest?....I leave this to ur wiadom

kostak 325
premium -40-42

full year profit will be 375 cr

GUPA PLS STOP UR NON SENSE

please compare your estimates with actual results

high price band nothing left for investors

LAST DAY QIB AND ALSO I HAVE TO WATCH NAV AND RONW RATIO THEN DECIDE

ARJUN BHAI GUPA = DORY HE will forget what is right hand has done

Few subsy are in huge losses. EPS max 15.5 Min 14.5

JUST A CAUTION I WILL WAIT FOR RHP TO BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION
EPS 11 is working fro 209 Crs so another 5.5 for second half and at least 2.5 for interest cost saving works to 11+5.5+2.5 = 18.5 EPS at least at 525 Imo price PE works to 27.63 giving a good 10 PE discount GIVEN FMCG PE IS AROUND 35 TO 45 PE IMO so fair value is (525+190) with 25% MIS gives me Fair value of approx 540

given market leader in its product we could see MIS reduce to 15% to 20% SO FAIR VAULE WOULD BE 600 SO IF IT COMES WITH 525 IPO PRICE MAY LIST AT 600 IMO

Septa ji
EPS Expected Rs. 14.5 FY 17 Post Issue
As posted P.B. 525 Asking PE 35.
They might be Window Dressing B/S Pre Ipo.

I have still not got hold of RHP BTW all do window dressing. Also in my calculation i have taken 85 crs of reduction in financial cost with close to 800 Crs coming to the company this will have good 5 to 6 rupee EPS impact. let wait for the final price band

Septa
2 nd quarter sales is 47% of total sales last year so it assumption of 400 core annualizing half year profit of 209cr seems wrong. Sales n profit r way higher in first half than second half....cold drink mkt is very cyclical n skewed towards first half in india

Septa that''s my whole point....u r not already listed ...eivher was @17.5 in 2001.....when u r coming with IPO u can''t just sell hope u have to sell ur track record also

When u talk of Goldman Sachs then u must also tell the story of Lehman.....u can''t alws think of giving ur hat to another persons hoping to get better price .....IPO flipper beware!!!!

Varun Beverages Ltd.
Date 18-20 October
Price band 501-525
Lot Size 25
Size 1312 CR.

thank u Madar for sharing the info

Varun beverage for FY 2016 For the first six months to June, Varun Beverages reported a profit of Rs209 crore on a revenue of Rs2,530 crore. If you amplify this for the full year with money coming in the company which will reduce debts also later six months is weak compare to first 6 months ballpark NP will be close to 400 Crs annualised

We also know post issue the non-promoter holding, including private equity investors and the public, will be 25-26% in the PepsiCo bottler.

Also The CCPSs held by RJ Corp and DHRPL will convert into a maximum of 13,200,845 Equity Shares; the CCDs held by SCPE, AION and ICICI Venture Employees Welfare Trust through IDBI Trusteeship Services Private Limited will convert into a maximum of 26,368,815 Equity Shares, prior to filing of the Red Herring Prospectus with RoC. 771,700 outstanding options granted under ESOS 2013 may be converted into 771,700 Equity Shares prior to filing of the Red Herring Prospectus with RoC.

outstanding Share 135,669,865 Equity Shares per IPO
Fresh Issue 15000000
CCDs13200845+26368815+771700
So total outstanding share post IPO will Be 191011225 Shares with NP of 400 Crs will Give a EPS of 21 Aprrox so at 560 it will give PE of of 26.67 which IMO is fair value also given only 10% is available for RII demand will be high

Let see how many CCDs get converted and what is price band

We also know post issue the non-promoter holding, including private equity investors and the public, will be 25-26% in the PepsiCo bottler. Since PE fund r not selling the and issue size is 1400 Crs post IPO hold 13% to 14% stake in 191 million shares so approx 13% to 12% account for 1400 Crs meaning 100% MC should be approx 10769 Crs to 11667 so price band of 560 -610 as per my calculation so at higher end gives it a PE of 29

Which for a FMCG is fair for a top of the line FMCG product line

SO lets see what is actual NP and the real price band IMO it will be a good IPO

CA SAHIB MEHUL GUPA 😩😩😩😩

if varun price is less than 500 as speculated by many people, then the issue size < 1400 cr

Septa ji is right that complete analysis has to wait till new filing of drhp by varun beverages with SEBI. Based on estimates given at http://wp.me/p7zwuc-fQ equity at max can be 190 crore and PE based on dec31 2015 results > 100 though co. has done well in first half year. Perhaps not cheap

VARUN BEVERAGES

Refer page 104 of the DRHP dated 21 June 2016

As per Restated Consolidated Financial Statements

FY 2013 EPS was (3.10)
FY 2014 EPS was (1.51)
FY 2015 EPS was 6.46

FY 2013 RONW was (6.70)
FY 2014 RONW was (2.66)
FY 2015 RONW was 8.00

NAV as on December 31, 2015 was Rs.81.28


So, If the issue price is Rs.560/-

... What is the valuation matrix ?

Manpasand trading at 60 Multiple....
Varun at 560 will trade at 56 Multiple...

EPS is Rs.10/- on Unconsolidated Basis. They are taking benefit / Advantage of Bull market.

PE > 100 based on 2015 dec results. Improvement in half year 2016

AVOID AVOID

Thanks for your avoid call.
My chances of allotment will increase. :)

Interesting to see Varun Beverages venturing into other countries. Varun Beverages has started the construction of its $30 million Pepsi bottling plant in Harare, Zimbabwe

Promoters are getting greedy by seeing the huge response of investors in IPO now a days ... See Endurance ..I am sure some lessons would be learnt ahead ..

Varun is not a bad company but if the pricing is Rs 560 than it is total greed from Promoters .. Can should price between Rs 425-430. Rs 100 is the risk that they are shifting to investors in this IPO taking the fair value of Rs 450-460... Why they are pricing too high ...

They alloted shared on March 31, 2016 @ 150 to employeess ..they can now issue to us at Rs 300 .. As per me their market capitalisation can be max Rs 4000 crores .. lets see

Upcoming IPO:-

Varun Beverages Ltd
Issue Opens 18th October
Issue Closes 20th October

Upper Band 560
BRLM: Axis Capital
Size 1400 Crore

Grey Premium 38-40

What is the lot size......

if issue size is 1400 crore, issue price could be 560/-. Septa ji has given a accurate but slightly higher estimate of 560-600

Price band expected to be 560-600. Issue might open on 14th or 18th, 18th more likely.