Shalby Limited IPO Message Board (Page 13)

Septa and Gamble''s analysis are enough to avoid this IPO.
Thanks experts.

Yes. ..it''s my inference.

If it is your inference and why attribute to Septa?

*SHALBY LIMITED*
2ND DAY SUBS.FIGURE AT 10:25 A.M.
QIB 0.35X**
NII 0.01X
RII 0.25X
EMP 0.20X
TOTAL 0.23X
**Excluding Anchor
Total No.of FORMS : 22075
*Apps Wise : 0.19X*

Its a clear Avoid.

      
Shalby Limited: Information Analysis
Headquartered in Ahmedabad, Shalby Hospitals operates through a network of hospitals in India, as well as outpatient clinics (no overnight stay facility) and Shalby Arthroplasty Centre of Excellence or SACE (third-party shared surgery hospitals) located in India, Africa and the Middle East. The multi-specialty chain has 11 operational hospitals across five states, 47 outpatient clinics and 10 SACE. Hospitals usually provide four types of services: Primary, Secondary, Tertiary and Quaternary. Primary and secondary services are basic healthcare services, whereas Tertiary and Quaternary are advanced services, with the latter being a premium service. Shalby provides Tertiary and Quaternary services, with special focus on orthopaedics. It also provides services related to cardiology, neurology, oncology and renal transplantation.
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As of June 30, 2017, Shalby had a total operational capacity of 841 beds. The company generated revenues of Rs 333 crore in FY17, which does not include the additional revenue contribution from new beds. Two new properties, Shalby Naroda and Shalby Surat, started providing inpatient services July 1 onwards, with combined bed capacity of 510. This will take the total operational capacity to 1,351 beds (an increase of about 60 per cent in the current bed capacity, assuming all the beds become operational). However, Shalby has a total capacity of 2,012 beds, which provides it with an opportunity to further scale its business. It also plans to open new hospitals in Nashik and Vadodara.
Industry outlook
The size of the Indian healthcare delivery market (hospitals) was estimated to be Rs 6.2 lakh crore in 2016. It grew at a 14-15 per cent CAGR during 2011-15, and is further expected to grow at 15-16 per cent during 2015-20 to Rs 11.7 lakh crore by 2020. In 2014, 12 per cent of the total population was above 54 years of age. The figure is expected to go up to 14 per cent by 2020, which will lead to an increase in demand for healthcare services. In 2015, nearly 23 per cent of the population was in the 45 and above age group, which accounted for nearly 95 per cent of joint replacement surgeries.
Industry-wide ethical issues
In recent weeks, we have had intense internal discussions on the ethical standards of the Indian private healthcare sector. None of our readers would be unaware--either through news or through personal experience--of the widespread incidence of malpractices in healthcare whereby hospitals are focussed solely on increasing revenue and profit without any regard for medical ethics. The recent Fortis case is only one of the very, very few that has come to widespread notice.
Here''s a brief excerpt from the red herring prospectus (RHP) of this IPO. Please read it carefully. ''As a significant portion of inpatient income is derived from medical services provided in the initial two to three days of an inpatient visit, we seek to increase our ARPOB (Average Revenue per Occupied Bed) by optimising the length of patient stay, increasing capacity turnover, focusing on complex procedures and achieving higher operating efficiency through the adoption of advanced technology and through the provision of improved medical services.''

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Anyone over here tracking APEX Frozen foods. The stock is hitting upper circuit even in this bear market. Need experts take on this.

It may crash 50% from its peak once its Circuit Breaks

Dear dhan ki bat its your belief. Ask for expert advice not muh uthake boldiya....

On a lighter note

It is interesting to notice that after Insurance and Khadim IPOs, recommendations from most people are giving indication for
APPLOID or
AVOPPLY
In place of
APPLY
AVOID

There is only one king.......The Market

Human Emotions

Shalby & future chain solution both are good ipo but their expected listing date is on or about 15th & 18th Dec ( near or on gujarat Election results Day)... So No trade in kostak... If you hold for short term then go for it otherwise..u can miss both ipo... Play safe Be safe.. - By Rj

Correct

I have decided to skip this IPO issue for the following reasons:

1. Not comfortable with financial reporting for IPO.
2. Valuation sought for last 3/5 years inconsistent performance not justifiable.
3. Market is at the peak with potential consolidation or correction at the short term.
4. Long term Successful Hospital business requires either or both, good human touch or better service quality as compared to peers......evidence of which I found to be missing or un-available.

The following news article is an indication of company ''s quality
https://m.economictimes.com/default_pwa.cms?article=61934634

They can ask for EV/EBITA of 40 + as they have that ability to run super speciality hospitals In 2nd tier cities..
^^ That''s not as difficult as operating a Harley Davidson showroom in a jungle though, if they choose their cities carefully ..cities where people are known to posses innate strength, skill and desire to break each other''s bones over seemingly trivial matters...
Verdict ...''Apploid'' with fullest force...

......... Shalby Multispeciality Hospital. .........

________________________________________________
Good presence in gujarat, total 841 beds, 9 fully operating hospitals,
Good speciality in orthopaedic, replacement joint surgeries.

Future plan - setting up new hospitals at Nashik and Vadodara(till 2019)

In March 2017, they set up three new hospitals, Shalby Jaipur, Shalby Naroda, and Shalby Surat, which had an aggregate bed capacity of 747 beds, which have commenced providing inpatient services from April, 2017, July, 2017 and August, 2017, respectively.

________________________________________
@ upper band m.cap 2670cr

REVENUE caGr(5 yr): 9.5%, (3 yr) : 6%
PAT Cagr(5 yr) : 38% , (3 yr) : 33%
PBT caGr (5 yr) : 30% , (3 yr) : 7%

Revenue, PBT parallel but PAT swinging widely last 3 year, specially 2016 to 17, just before of an ipo
shalby ''s CA must b good at financing and taxation!!!

________________________________________
Peers.

................. PE(17)..... P/S...... REVENUE CAGR

N.H.............73........ .2.9x.......19%
APOLLO......71........ .2.3x.......18%
HCG............111...... ..3.3x.......17%
Fortis..........NA....... .1.6x.......1.5%

Shalby......... 42...... ..7.9x.......9.5%
_________________________________________
Valuation :

Pre offer shares : 88654932
Post offer shares : 108009770
PAT last yr : 625000000 rs

Eps pre offer : 7.1,post offer : 5.7
@248 PE => 42 (2017)

2017 margin 18.7%, 2018Q1 margin 16%

If give 10% growth in revenue i.e 366cr
PAT 58.5cr(16% margin)

EpS : 5.4 => PE :45 (2018)
_________________________________________

just forget peers and think 9% CAGR top line and m.cap = 8x sales, deserves
45 PE valuation???

In my opinion : A big No.
Peers trading 70-100PE but they trading 2-3x of sales only,
I m seeing whole sector as a overvalued.

35 PE good = 5.4*35 =190rs + 10% due to mkt condition
= 220 INR (fair value imo)

Listing may b : Flat to negative (khadim type)

Still Future perspective good, after 2019 it can b good bet due to expansion plans.
______________________________________
Rii forms reqd = 1.19L near,
5 L forms may come i.e 1/4 to 1/5 allotment chances.
______________________________________
ConcL.....

I m applying(with sold kostak only) , otherwise imo it''s clear avoid as of now, wait for better ones !!
U may decide after seeing 2nd day subscription fig or till SPT review.

Baccho ko calculator/mobile se dur rkhe aur maths k 2-3 tuition lagwaye taki esi galtiya na ho !!!


210 what i should hv written instead of 220,

But when stock going down it''s not matter 220/210/200....
5-10% movement doesn''t matter

IT''s not that it will come at 210 and then take sharp U turn. Or
It may not even come 210

But this 190-210 is range which one can prefer to buy for meaningfull return(imo)

Hi Brother

Can i know how did you calculated Pre & Post Offer shares

Thnx septa madam for valuable research

This message has been removed by a moderator.

Latest premium plss??

Every IPO is unique, depending on the area of business
so HNI & QIB can help to see the interest of them in that particular IPO

Issue Subscription Detail / Current Bidding Status ???

*SHALBY LIMITED*
1ST DAY SUBS.FIGURE AT 05:00 P.M.
QIB 0.35X**
NII 0.01X
RII 0.21X
EMP 0.00X
TOTAL 0.20X
**Excluding Anchor
Total No.of FORMS : 17796
*Apps Wise : 0.15X*

QIB and Retail will oversubscribe.
Going for 2 applications, taking calculated risk.

@NIDHIKE THANKS FOR YOUR RESEARCH AND SUPER COMMENT TO AVOID. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS COULD HAVE BEEN SEEN BY ANCHOR INVESTORS? HOW MANY RII WILL UNDERSTAND YOUR COMMENT TO AVOID THIS ISSUE?!!

Thanks!!
Even 1 person see value in my comment then I believe I m doing my bit.

Thanks Nidhike! atleast I am not applying for this IPO after reading your comment.

GMP last heard:

Shalby IPO
8 - 10

gmp for shalby?

I have not yet read the RHP once i do will give my opinion.....however general all medical related IPO have given positive return even if price is high given this industry will grow at 15% plus for next 20 years at least.

Pl.keep in touch sir!! You are really genius..

you means we all should be apply ?

Shallby had suffer huge loss in 2008 as its promotor lost huge amount of money in crude oil gambling. To pay the debt they took money from someone and daily earning of its top floor [ ICU] was paid to that person as monthly installment.
Good thing for this IPO is that promotor is very active in speculating.