Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 38)

i have assumed outstanding shares would be approx 8 crs shares post IPO based on this this my calculation on fair value. I have also kept the discount rate lower bcoz IMO inflation will be low for next decade. So based on these assumption fair value should be Rs 225

with a EPS of 8.4 on fair value PE would be Would approx 27 let see what would be price band

Initial Cash Flow:      $29,47,00,000                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      30%      25%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      8,00,00,000             Margin of Safety:      30%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      38,31,10,000       30%      $34,82,81,818       
2      49,80,43,000       30%      $41,16,05,785       
3      62,25,53,750       25%      $46,77,33,847       
4      77,81,92,188       25%      $53,15,15,735       
5      97,27,40,234       25%      $60,39,95,153       
6      1,16,72,88,281       20%      $65,89,03,804       
7      1,40,07,45,938       20%      $71,88,04,149       
8      1,68,08,95,125       20%      $78,41,49,981       
9      2,01,70,74,150       20%      $85,54,36,343       
10      2,42,04,88,980       20%      $93,32,03,283       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $2,54,15,13,429                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $6,31,36,29,899       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $19,59,72,68,951       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $25,91,08,98,850       
                        
Number of Shares:                  8,00,00,000       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $323.89       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $226.72       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   76%      
the Terminal Value:                        

Septaji, could u simulate one scenario in ur model.......What EPS growth rate is required for a FV of 215/- (including 12/- discount for retailers) to offer 25% MoS?

We''ll then compare that with their historical CAGR for EPS.

Scanner I am not sure however I read somewhere or heard on TV that parag is looking to double it TO in 3 to have that growth it need to grow at 26% at least so 30% is not impossible if vaule add product like ice cream and it also planning of ice cream parlour like other brand this will bring more visibility and growth and better revenue product mix

gravitas I Will do it later when finish this conference

They actual where looking at 350 IPO at 227 it is very attractively priced

Parag Milk’s IPO to open on May 4, to mop-up Rs 750 cr

Parag Milk IPO Dairy firm Parag Milk Foods will hit the capital markets on May 4 to raise an estimated Rs 750 crore through initial public offer (IPO).
Dairy firm Parag Milk Foods will hit the capital markets on May 4 to raise an estimated Rs 750 crore through initial public offer (IPO).

The public issue comprises fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 300 crore and an offer for sale of over 2 crore equity shares.

The proceeds of the issue will be utilised for expansion and modernisation as well as investment in its subsidiary.

The firm had received Sebi’s permission for the public offer in December last year.

According to sources, the company’s initial share-sale programme will open for subscription on May 4 and close on May 6. It is expected to garner an estimated Rs 750 crore from the IPO including fresh issue.

The issue is being managed by Kotak Mahindra Capital, JM Financial Institutional Securities, IDFC Securities and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors.

The equity shares offered through the issue are proposed to be listed on BSE and NSE.

Maharashtra-based Parag, which begun its operations in 1992, is now one of the leading manufacturers and marketers of dairy-based branded foods in the country.

Septa, If i remember correctly they issued shares around that price in 2015. So i expect higher price. Will check Drhp/Rhp tomorrow.

SEPTA SIR WHAT IS FAIR VALUE OF PARAG MILK IPO ?

Rs 225

Dear Eagle eye,
Many many happy returns of the day.

HBD EAGLE EYE!! REALY AVPPRECIATE UR UNBIASED QUOTES,FOR SMALL RETAIL INVESTOR LIKE US,AND UR DOWN TO EARTH ATTITUDE,GOD BLESS U.REALLY MAKE
SMALL KILLING IN NARAYAN IPO,ONLY DUE TO UR COORECT QUOTES.

Hi to all senior boarders, this unni from Tamilnadu, just today i have joined in this forum. hope all senior members guidance make more efficient in my investments and trading.

ilke to know "lot size of parag milk."

sply happy birth day wishes to eagle eye sir..

Regrds
Unni

My tgt rich QH 260+,even nagative mkt,enjoy

Dear Eagle eye,
Many many happy returns of the day. God bless..

Thx Red2Red sir

Septa maharaj do u remember my post 13.5 in equitas i told u that QHT will rise after 22nd april.

How u predicted about QH

U got it,now u r f/25,in this year we hope u post many valuable analysis abt ipo,its also help us to take proper deceision,at last put final foot note apply or avoid

Yes Sir, I intend to continue posting the relevant data and also asking the right kind of questions ... but I do not consider myself as qualified enough to offer my opinion whether to apply or not ... that decision you will have to take your own ... based on the information made available on this forum.

Eagle Eye,
Wishing you a very happy birthday Eagleeye, for your very long and healthy and prosperous life.

I would not just stop with the wishes, but I want you to be healthy both physically and mentally. You have studied, worked hard, obtained intelligence all that''s fine, but you need to be healthy mentally and physically, whatever the wealth that you may have.

For that, as a birthday resolution, take an oath. Dedicate 1 hour daily for a duty that is to yourself. Do lot of physical exercise like cycling or tennis or cardio. For the mind, do pranaym/yoga/or meditation. Don''t miss this routine and this has to be the first routine of your every day. As long as we live, these will keep us energetic and disease-free. Now a days all people are going after money, studies etc. and they do not realize there is something beyond all these, that is inner happiness. Inner happiness is our real wealth no matter we live in slum or in a posche bungalow. Just my sincere inputs and pls forgive me if I had over-spoken. I m so happy that your birthday news is on the board and that I am able to wish you.

Thank you for your kind wordss ... that was quite a big load of wishes _/\_

Only big load will explain what i feel for you _^_.

happy birthday to u eagle eye

Thankyou Sir.

Wish you a very very happy birthday Ealgleye

Many Happy Returns of the Day EagleEye

thank you Samsakji

MMHROD HBD EAGLEYE

Thx Arupji

.. it took me while to crack your abbreviations .. but finally I got it ...

HBD = "Happy Birthday" .. that one was an easy one

but,
MMHROD = "Many Many Happy Returns of the Day" .. is that what it means?

RAJIV JI,PLZ,UR EMAIL,PRIVIOUS LINK NOT CANNECT.

rs8338328@gmail.com

what is roce and ronw for parag milk for year ended 31 march 2016 ?

Parag''s RHP is not yet available ..

However, even the RHP is unlikely to have the March''16 Data ...

HAPPY BIRTHDAY EAGLEYE

Thank you Mehulbhai for your triple wishes

QH UP ON TODAY,HOPE 260+

which city are u from eagle eye?

Mumbai

@Eagleye, I think u r from Rajasthan itself. Probably Jaipur.
It is my assumption.
By the way , happy birthday to you

If 165-170 priceband is very attrective,those should be apply..