Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 37)

septa sir IF WE COMPARE PARAG WITH HUSTSUN AGRO AND PRABHAT DAIRY ON PTO B.V AND ROCE AND PTO BV AND RONW THEN IS IT CHEAP OR COSTLY ?

Cheap

it is only cheap compare to it peers however fundamental it is still expensive IMO

MONEY BLOCKED IN THYROCARE CAN BE USED TO SUBSCRIBE FOR PARAG MILK

YES

The money blocked in both, Thyocare & Ujjivan will be available for use in Parag

Gravita

I have assumed 25% MOS also based on eagle Eagleye Input on outstanding shares and new issue the total outstanding share increases to 8,48,05,000 Shares Approx so based on assumption.
Initial Cash Flow:      $29,47,00,000                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      25%      25%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      8,48,05,000             Margin of Safety:      25%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      37,42,69,000       27%      $34,02,44,545       
2      46,78,36,250       25%      $38,66,41,529       
3      58,47,95,313       25%      $43,93,65,374       
4      73,09,94,141       25%      $49,92,78,834       
5      91,37,42,676       25%      $56,73,62,311       
6      1,09,64,91,211       20%      $61,89,40,703       
7      1,31,57,89,453       20%      $67,52,08,040       
8      1,57,89,47,344       20%      $73,65,90,589       
9      1,89,47,36,813       20%      $80,35,53,370       
10      2,27,36,84,175       20%      $87,66,03,676       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $2,38,73,68,384                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $5,94,37,88,970       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $18,40,86,77,195       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $24,35,24,66,165       
                        
Number of Shares:                  8,48,05,000       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $287.16       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $215.37       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   76%      
the Terminal Value:                        

http://www.safalniveshak.com/5-questions-on-ipo-answered/

This a very good read to understand how to read and understand red herring prospects

superb septa sir. I was looking for this kind of link from past 1 year.Thanks for sharing link. Can you please send me other links to get how to read fundamentals of company from balance sheet ,results etc & can you tell me some good book name on stock market analysis. Thanks in advance.

Now we know what is price band. Since this anomaly is common to all organised diary players and since we have many listed peers it would be easy to compare and make the right decision .

Just back of envelop calculation @ 227 the issue is available at a PE of 27 which IMO is cheap compare to peers with recent IPO
Prabhat is available at 155 PE
heritage foods at 24 PE
vadilal at 36 PE
kwality at 21PE
hutsun agro at 58 PE

At this price we get a MC of approx 1816 Crs which compare to its peers based on revenue is half so good upside

Not sure about it GMP or will it list on premium however compare with its listed Peers and management planning doubling the revenue IMO it is best bet in the diary sector

So i am going to apply

actual u r right Neo trade PE is around 45 i have already mention in forum abt my mistake

Actual Parag Milk IPO PE is not 27 got my calculation wrong it actual 46 Approx based on TTM EPS

Problem is I may not have funds left to apply for Parag MFL after applying full in Thyrocare & UFL.

Yes, thats my hope too. Will be good if our funds are unblocked by 6th.

Yes, Positively both Thyrocare & Ujjivan will be unblocked on or before 6th May... and so you''ll be able to use it for Parag ...

I understand from some dairy experts that this year...FY16 has been an exceptionally good year for dairy companies as there was surplus milk in the market and hence procurement price for them was cheap...margins shown by most companies this year may not sustain in FY17 and beyond...

So lets keep this in mind whilst making investment decision!

Neo .to me u r dairy expert .ur valueable inputs at the time of prabhat put question marks on many.
Pl share ur analysis.

Neo trade is good contributor however i had earlier also mention he only looks and good stuff and forget the bad stuff which he has already acknowledge abt his error with Prabhat he actual got it all wrong Atul not sure what u read he was very bullish at 147 Prabhat diary when the share was not even worth 100 even when the issue price brought down he was still saying it was best thing in the whole world should apply apply handsome gain apply full lot anyway.... Even NEO trade himself admitted he was wrong which IMO is great tribute to his personality

we are creating a IPO broad plz dont call if not necessary )

HISAR MAIN PARAG MILK FOODS LTD IPO KA KOSTAK PRICE KYA HAI

GMPs:-
TTL 187/-
APPLICATION 1200

UFL 37-39
APPLICATION 1000

PARAG ( started Low Volume)
APPLICATION 475-525
Share No work

Thank you Arjunbhai for update

Arjun ji, what the application cost means.. ttl 1200 and ufl 1000.. please clarify

eagleye price band of parag milk ipo declare ?

what is GMP ....?????

Parag GMP not yet started

Parag Milk Foods Ltd IPO

Analyst Meet is on
27th April 4:00pm
at Hotel Taj Mahal
Mumbai

Is anyone going for it ?

All the best eagleye.
Do share with us the details of the same.

Good Eagleye, we will be waiting for your views..

ISSUE SIZE KYA HAI

Parag Milk Foods Limited IPO Update:

Opens on: Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Close on: Friday, May 6, 2016

Price Band: Rs. 220 to Rs. 227

Bid Lot: 65 Equity shares & in multiples thereafter

Discount: Rs.12 per Equity shares to all eligible Retail Individual Bidders and Eligible Employees

Issue Split:

QIB: 75%
HNI: 15%
Retail: 10%

price band is good

PARAG milk foods
4-6may
Price band 220-227
Bid lot 65 SHARES
Retail discount 12

आज के भाव क्या है।

Parag Milk foods
If we go by the 25/04 article in Financial Express,
Total issue size is of Rs. 750 crores , out of which 300 crores represent fresh issue of share and Rest OFS.
Considering no. of share offered under OFS as 1.985 crores, issue price per share comes to Rs. 227.

Superb deductions !!

A foreign bank had been diligence findings....whatever be the pricing...one cannot even think of investing in such companies where bankers walk out of the deal!!!

Yes, but the fundamental reason for not investing in Infibeam was always its weak operations/markets size/business model couple with pricey offer. BRLMs walking out further catalyzed the decision making.

In case of Parag, I do not see such operations related weaknesses but BRLM walking out remains a concern. Does anybody know the reason for walkout?

Dairy industry is very fragmented but finally has started to see consolidation..smaller players being acquired by bigger ones..this is generally beneficial for large, organized players.

I think we do not yet have full grip on valuation i.e. whether it''s fair or pricey.

@EagleEye, looking forward to ur inputs from tomorrow''s meet.. Visibility on their FY16 earnings will help make a proper peer comparison.

Like I said...I hear that the BRLM walked out because they were not comfortable with diligence findings and the BRLM''s global risk committee wasnt willing to sign off...