JSW Energy Limited IPO Message Board (Page 3)

305. SUDHIR MAHESHWARI  Dec 31, 2009 15:30
Ravi, Bangalore
304. Ravi, Bangalore  Dec 31, 2009 13:43
SENSEX 17475

Moves can remain subdued until its 'Oct high of 17493 is taken out. Such a subdued scenario is possible, though bias continues to be positive until low of any previous day gets broken.

The treacherous progress has been despite the net FII inflow of nearly Rs.10000 crs. during its formation … marginal returns form such inflows now appear reducing … the 86% up-move from 8047 (6th March’09) to 14931 (19th May’09) saw FII inflows of only Rs.25000 crs. Since 19th May, the FII inflows have shot up by further Rs.62000 crs, in response to which, market moved only 16% … Further FII inflows will risk the reducing marginal returns, and can come in only for safety, and not for returns.

Below 17500, correction expected. However, a sustained trading above 17500 is a positive scenario. This would calculate to 22000 on Sensex by May’2010. Such a positive scenario would create a bubble-like situation in terms of valuation (PE Ratio). Upsides targets could be 17735 / 18100 / 18450 / 18900. This will be presented once 17500 gets decisively taken out. In such a bullish case, Sensex will go into a longer consolidation, lasting a decade or more, (similar to its consolidation seen during ‘1992 to ‘2003).

I also explained my PE Ratio argument previously. I argued, “At its highest level of 15600 on Sensex, PE Ratio had reached 21+, which is near the maximum figure of 22 seen under ‘normal’ circumstances. Only bubbles can push it higher towards 28. Such bubbles happened during ‘2000 and ‘2008, which were 8-year cycle tops. It takes 8 years to build a bubble. Bubbles have never been seen in two consecutive years.” Currently, the PE ratio is at 23.

Watch if the Sensex remains subdued, or goes in for a decisive surge above 17500 to reject bearish options.

2003 and ‘2009 rallies are similar in terms of the time consumed and gains registered, both gaining about 115% in about 8 months.

On its maturity, the ‘2003 rally got retraced by 60% in 60% time, dropping to 4227 before the next move. If the current rally matures at the current levels, it could also show a 60% retracement (11850) by March’2010.

On its maturity, the ‘2003 rally got retraced by 60% in 60% time, dropping to 4227 before the next move. If the current rally matures at the current levels, it could also show a 60% retracement (11850) by March’2010.

Will the history repeat itself ? Whether this happens or not, we need to be cautious on this front.

Sensex maturing near 17500 would support my argument that market usually corrects after doubling. Ratio of 200% can be seen even for all the first rallies coming out of bear phases :

- After a 24-month bear phase during 1986-88, Sensex doubled from 390 to 798 and went into sideways consolidation for about a year before moving further up.

- After a 13-month bear phase during 1992-93, Sensex doubled from 1980 to 4643 and went into sideways consolidation for about four years before IT bubble happened in 2000.

- After a 39-month bear phase during 2000-03, Sensex doubled from 2904 to 6250 and saw a quick 60% retracement before resuming the bull phase.

Remember, 17500 is about twice the value of Oct’08 low of 7697 or ‘Mar low of 8047.
Ravi, Bangalore
303. Ravi, Bangalore  Dec 31, 2009 10:48
304. Rakesh

305. Ravi, Bangalore is not my posting.

I have already posted my opinion.

302. strategy  Dec 31, 2009 10:42
you never know which way market can behave.. advisable strategy on JSW E IPO.

if list below 90 - Buy more
90-95 - Hold
95 - 105 - hold
105- 130 sell

I have applied for IPO and hoping it will list at 110..
patel hemant
301. patel hemant  Dec 30, 2009 16:43
all friend jsw energy bse code 533148 listing on 4 jan 10 list on 115 to 119 sell all share opening bel
300. KAMAL  Dec 30, 2009 11:46
LESTING 105-110
Akshat Shah
299. Akshat Shah  Dec 29, 2009 23:45
Seriously mere ko to premium me hi list ho aisa lagta he yar.it can be 15 to 20% kind of gain.
manoj gohil
298. manoj gohil  Dec 29, 2009 16:49
minimum jsw energy gives 20% return on opening day
297. Satyendra  Dec 29, 2009 14:55
Even Rel Power capacity of 20 MW ONLY Rallied 5% above by today, JSW ENERGY having already 900 MW. IT WILL LIST 125-130.
296. Sanjeev  Dec 29, 2009 13:47
Confirm and Guaranteed listing @ 120/- - 125/-. Buying is advisable at this rate also. It has potential to go up to 150/- 160/- within one month.
bhupesh Chand
295. bhupesh Chand  Dec 29, 2009 09:20
JSW, one of the best power IPO in recenet times , however it could list on some thin discount
Long term investor could buy the stock from market as this stock has certain potential to give atleast 20%-30% in next one month
IPO Mater
294. IPO Mater  Dec 29, 2009 08:21
JSW energy will list at 10% discount. This si confirmed news. sell immediately on listing, otherwise you will loose lot of money.. CAREFUL.
293. TSG  Dec 28, 2009 19:34
@ 286
I too got refund based on @100 calculation, applied at cutoff price under retail category. not sure if going to get additional shares (?)
292. anu  Dec 28, 2009 16:46
will list at 101 to 102 maximum and will definitely go below 91 at the end.So retailers should book profit immediately and enjoy, warna dhoondte reh jaoge.And see that if it gets listed beloow 100, it will immidiaely come at 94/- to 82.
So it will totally be a sentimental game.So keep an eye and do not miss the chane
Rahul Saxena
291. Rahul Saxena  Dec 28, 2009 11:32
Mr Ramesh is abosolutely right, R power do not have single MW capacity and ipo price was Rs 450 even now it is quoting above 150, adani has only 330 mw on stream and quoting 90 t0 100, JSW energy will definetly list above Rs 120. I think it will go upto Rs 300 in 2 to 3 years time when all its plant are commssioned and will be larger than torrent power.
Ramesh Damani
290. Ramesh Damani  Dec 28, 2009 11:21
JSW Energy is very good Power ipo, it is likely list at 120 to 125 with potential Rs 150 within a year
289. Be HAPPY  Dec 28, 2009 09:10
Dear Mohit,
How can you say that its confirm to list @ 120 - 125 ?

288. Mohit  Dec 28, 2009 08:10
It is confirm NEWS that it will list around 120/- - 125/-. It is advisable to purchase at this rate also. Because within one month it may reach up to 160/- - 170/-.
287. IPO KING  Dec 27, 2009 21:27
It will list at 10% discount.
Exit this stock as soon as possible.
286. Bharat  Dec 27, 2009 16:10
I have been alloted 180 shares of jsw energy at 100. Being retail invester should have been at 95. And got refund as per 100. Any advice/suggestion/information

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