Thanks Ravi for your knowledgeable and useful informations. Very often the sentiments are triggered by the FIIs who keep on buying for days together making the market appear bullish which attracts the poor retail investors. Suddenly when the FIIs start selling in truckloads and before the retail investors realize what is happening, it is very often too late. The poor retailers become greedy when they have to sell and become fearful when they have to buy. As a result, they are caught in between.
When PE reaches 22-23, history says correction happen. During bubble time, PE reaches 28 & above (In Jan'08, PE was 28+ at Sensex 21200). Last year, market witnessed bubble. Hence, this time falling at PE 22-23 (Sensex around 17500). Bubble phase happen once in 8 years- 1992 Harshad Mehta scam, 2000 IT bubble, 2008 real-estate bubble / global meltdown). Next bubble expectation in 2016.
Sensex can fall to 14400 or even below 12500. Nifty below 4300. When Nifty reaches 4300, I will review afresh at that point of time.
In an IPO, the issue price is determined through an extensive pre-issue marketing exercise. Plus, prudence demands conservative pricing for a company of unknown stock. By comparison, listed companies have tremendous pricing power in bull markets. The issue price in FPOs is generally a tempting discount to the latest price of the stock in the secondary market. What’s prominently visible to investors is the discount, what is not is how the stock has moved in the run-up to the issue. If there is a spike in prices and it is not backed by earnings growth, post-FPO, the stock can end up an under-performer. It is in the interest of many to ensure there is a spike in prices in the lead up.
Take the PNB FPO made in 2005. The PNB stock shot up from Rs 232 six months before its issue to an all-time high of Rs 511 on the issue date. Then, it listed at discount & FPO investors were at loss for many months.
Thnx Ravi, Bangalore (36) Please clarify one more thing. In FPO, How issue price can be fixed since its shares are already trading on bourses. and if price in market is lower than offer price of FPO, why an investor will apply for FPO?(As in case of REC somebody postd that its issue price band is 215-225 and market price is below 200).
The basic difference between Initial Public Offer (IPO) and Follow on Public Offer (FPO) is as the names suggest IPO is for the companies which have not listed on an exchange and FPO is for the companies which have already listed on exchange but want to raise funds by issuing some more equity shares.
Companies usually go to debt market for raising their short term needs. Either they issue bonds or get loans. But if they have massive expansion plans they may not raise sufficient funds in the debt market and even if they could it costs more. Companies come with follow on offer to restructure the business or to raise funds for new business or to expand the existing business.
Similar to an IPO a price band is fixed (usually with the help of Investment banks) for the issue and interested investors can apply for it. Unlike the corporate actions (such as bonus, rights issue; they are applicable only to the existing stake holders) FPO is open to all investors. The price band for the FPO depends on the market value of the existing company shares and the reason for raising funds.
Issue size is small (Thinksoft 46 crores & Astec IPO 62 crores). Hence, speculators could SUBSCRIBE keeping in mind the stop-loss in the IPO price band of Rs.82-77.
Euro Multivision issue size was also small. However, still it failed. Hence, speculation is best left to investors as investors should themselves take responsibility for their own hard-earned money.
7 out 10 IPOs are failing at browses. Even QIBs are losing opportunity to buy at discount post-listing. High valuation is the reason for most IPOs failure. I believe, merchant bankers can't cheat investors for too long.
REC SHARE HAS APPRECIATED a lot. In last eight month this share has moved from Rs 55 to Rs 225, present value 200. When is its FPO COMING and at what price.
NEW FPO REC--------OPEN....11..NOVEMBER ----------CLOSE....14..NOVEMBER ----------PRICE BAND----215-225.. BE SUBSCRIBE,B'COZ,RETAIL INVESTER KO 5% DISCOUNT MILEGA.
If you look last one year ipos performance about 98% ipos are failed upto 95% discount ,why investors investing in ipos i don,t now ,but it is conform ipos investors are bliend gambler.