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In absence of data like ‘Total number of Retail bids’ , total number of Retail shares tendered’, it is impossible to forecast Possible AR based on calculations.
Yes, anyone can put forward guess work about prospective AR based on recent past experiences of same or other company etc.

However, I have tried to forecast Prospective AR of SIS based on multiple mathematical ratios, past SIS buyback data and few assumptions.

To keep it simple, one has to track Only total number of bids at NSE (BSE is not participating). In 2021 SIS buy back, total number of bids were 16,996 (including all categories)

FORECAST IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE FOR ME, AS WELL. (May be I am missing something in entire calculation and analysis, but have been not able to find out).

Let’s see if it proves to be right?

Total Bids       Retail Oversubscription      Min AR
11,500        1.41       96%
12,000        1.47       79%
12,500        1.53       66%
13,000        1.59       55%
13,500        1.65       47%
14,000        1.71       40%
14,500        1.77       34%
15,000        1.83       29%

Total number of Bids at NSE as on 11.00 am (second last day of offer) is 7,060

I found my mistake in above calculation. I had mixed up data of 2021 & 2022 buy back, hence above calculation is null and void.

After omiting mistakes done in previous calculation, AR still looks good to me for 2023.

Total number of bids (including all categories) on last day for 2023 buy back: 11,918

AR in 2021: 22.25 for small share holders
AR in 2022: 41.67
Forecasted AR for 2023: Minimum 55 %

My Forecasted AR after Calculations : Minimum 55%

Reality: 153 out of 410 : 37.31 %

I am disappointed.

Will have to find out better method of forecasting AR for future buy backs