Quick Heal Technologies Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 50)

FAIR VALUE AS PER DCF RS 224 AND CO GIVE IT AS RS 321 SO MAY BE AVOIDABLE

DCF is a good method to value a traditional commodity manufacturing company ... and as such it not the appropriate method to value a technology product Company.

for me if best method is comparable peers at NSE if no comparable with overseas comparable if they r price at that level i see value

QHT GMP 69-71

wow this will give it a PE of 45 if list at this price close to three time valuation of Symentec corporation

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SYMC:US

dear rajeevkumar s.

you have doing lots of homework(reading articles, learning). its good practice.

i want to know, wht are sense about nifty or mkt?

Dear Gravita thanks. Its very difficult to predict the stock markets in current market conditions. There are both good n bad triggers which I can see which may influence the markets like

a) OPEC, Russia, Iran etc may decide to cit production of oil which may be good for world economy.
b) News of Turkey trying to get involved in Syria with physical boots on ground would be bad n would lead to crashes in markets.
c) US fed rate.
d) US industrial, manufacturing n jobs data.
e) China currency economic data.
f) News of North Korean prep stations of another nuclear test etc etc..

However, it can be safely assumed that the markets would remain range bound in near term. The current market condition gives good trading opportunity for short term n a good opportunity to invest in stocks with good fundamentals especially in Nifty 50.

Quick Heal Valuation

IMO fair value for QHL is Rs 224 which gives it a PE of 22 which is comparable with it is peers in world even DCF with 30% of margin of safety this give the same price.

Calculation as follows:

Initial Cash Flow:      $56,29,80,000                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      25%      25%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      11%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      6,23,00,000             Margin of Safety:      30%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      66,99,46,200       19%      $60,51,90,786       
2      77,71,37,592       16%      $63,41,65,593       
3      89,37,08,231       15%      $65,87,98,945       
4      1,00,09,53,218       12%      $66,65,35,518       
5      1,12,10,67,605       12%      $67,43,62,945       
6      1,25,55,95,717       12%      $68,22,82,293       
7      1,40,62,67,203       12%      $69,02,94,642       
8      1,57,50,19,268       12%      $69,84,01,083       
9      1,76,40,21,580       12%      $70,66,02,721       
10      1,97,57,04,169       12%      $71,49,00,676       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $2,07,44,89,378                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $6,73,15,35,202       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $13,16,92,22,975       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $19,90,07,58,177       
                        
Number of Shares:                  6,23,00,000       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $319.43       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $223.60       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   66%      
the Terminal Value:                        

how value of share calculated based on pe ?

To determine the P/E ratio, investors can divide the stock price by EPS. For example, Coca-Cola Co (KO) on June 18, 2014 traded at $41.56 per share with an EPS (TTM) of $1.87, so the P/E ratio would be: Stock price ($41.56) / earnings per share ($1.87) = 22.22.

Mehul sir, qh eps 8.8earn per share.then higher band rs321 .so p/e is 36.47.if eps 12 then p/e will be 26.75.other wise priee when 270 then p/e come down at 30.

Thx Rajeev ..4 n excellent sharing ...

eaglene what should be fair value of quick heal ? How it is calculated by u pls explain

Anchor list came
http://m.economictimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/quick-heal-raises-rs-134-cr-from-anchor-investors/articleshow/50878676.cms#_ga=1.105004739.1317736595.1429189965

Pinky Jain ......missing u n ur valuable guidelines

Okay Rajeev sir, that is a good advice you are saying. But I was unfortunate to finish engineering (I was teaching as well as student) while my students joined IIT and some of my notes are used by Indian students for their MS course in abroad.,I went for some other alternate jobs, but the earnings are not multiplying to meet the financial needs. Bank interests are reducing. so I want to participate in this share activity.

Okay, I think we cannot discuss everything in open forum. Is there any way in this forum to contact members like you thro mail?

Yes Shivajee, all these books will certainly help not only in IPOs but otherwise too.

I dont know exact industrial PE for anti virus or software company segment but it is higher than traditional business like metal, mining, steel, infra etc.

Some of the stocks trade at above 50 pe from long time. It is depend on company and their industry segment where they working. We can not apply same or fixed number of PE valuation for every company for analysis.
BRLM are also calculating PE and other conditions for fund raising.

http://indopulse.com/2016/02/03/quick-heal-ipo-should-you-subscribe/

Recommendation- Apply for med to long term

http://www.blog.sanasecurities.com/quick-heal-ipo-analysis/

Recommendation- Subscribe

http://www.indiansharebroker.com/quick-heal-ipo-is-it-worth-investing/

Recommendations- Neutral

http://www.simpleinterest.in/quick-heal-ipo-review-analysis-recommendation/

Recommendation- Apply for med to long term

http://www.trafficchallan.co.in/quick-heal-ipo-review-recommendations/

Recommendations- Apply for Med to Long term.

http://myinvestmentideas.com/2016/02/quick-heal-ipo-review/

Recommendation- High risk investors can invest for Med to long term.

Dear EE .wht should I do in qh

In chitiorgarh many senior persons came like Shreedhar ,babukalia etc but today eagleye is most reputated and information sharer in group.we all member thanks her kind of support in group.
She is like chanpguru in money control but he disappeared from board from last three ipos and small investor like us suffer due to this kind of disappearance.
Hope to eagleye to stay in this foram last long
Thanks

QHT GMP 70 - 71

GMP, PE, fundamentals, profits, all that are okay for analysts. I just want to know one thing as a petty and poor investor, flipper. Will Quikheal give listing gain (if so how much rupee)? after gain, will it grow and to what to rupee in 1-2 months frame?