Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO Message Board (Page 14)

41. Khemka | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 9:09:16 AM (1000+ Posts, 400+ Likes)

Market lot is 50 share in sbi moderator should correct it.Imo i applied ,

41.1. Khemka | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 9:18:20 AM (1000+ Posts, 400+ Likes)

Idbi 61 share lot, seems sbi showing wrong lot of 50 share , i already applied

41.2. Khemka | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 9:29:55 AM (1000+ Posts, 400+ Likes)

I cancelled order going to apply from other bank

40. RAJAKUMAR | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:58:19 AM (1400+ Posts, 1200+ Likes)

WE CAN CONSIDER IF FII AND HNI SUBSCRIBES ABOVE 15 TO 20 TIMES. SO WE CAN CONSIDER AFTER 2PM ON THE LAST DAY.

39. RAJAKUMAR | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:56:04 AM (1400+ Posts, 1200+ Likes)

THERE ARE NINE ANCHOR INVESTOR IN THIS ISSUE. 1. GOLDMAN SACHS 2. HDFC 3. FOREFRONT ALTERNATIVE INVT. TRUST 4. ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE 5. SBI 6. MALABAR INDIA FUND 7 ALCHEMY LEADERS OF TOMORROW 8. BNP PARIBAS 9. SOCIETE GEREALE
SOFTWARE COMPANY NOWADAYS NO FANCY IN THE STOCK MARKET. IT MAY BE INCLUDE IN THE LIST OF MAHINDRA LOGISTICS, KHADIM, FUTURE SUPPLY CHAIN.

38. OddEven | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:55:37 AM

Can anyone provide the link for anchor investors ?

37. CA Dhiraj Ramchandnai | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:51:04 AM

IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 500+ Likes)

Many genuine experts are suggesting to avoid Newgen IPO, while few another genuine experts are suggesting GMP of 90 rupee per share. The volatility on this stock is very high.

36. Prasin | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:40:32 AM

Guys,

I think the bid lot is 50 only as showing in SBI.What about other banks ASBA services? is it showing the same bid lot?

35. ~~Kunj~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:21:33 AM

Why sbi show only 50 share lot na application rate 12250

34. ~~AnkurGoel~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 7:58:07 PM

Anchor list out.
Goldman Sachs, hdfc, sbi, aditya birla, bnp Paribas, Societe general are anchors in the ipo.

34.1. v for vendetta | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 9:15:33 PM

Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 400+ Likes)

Tell me an IPO where anchor list have been bad.
Dont go by anchor list and subscription figure.

34.2. ~~AnkurGoel~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 8:05:34 AM

@V for vendetta, did I tell u that anchor list is good? I just pass on the information that list is out and specify the names of anchors.

33. gamble | Link | Bookmark | January 12, 2018 9:58:07 AM (1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)

Uttrayan tgt was only 480,but MahLog trading 540+.....

indeed a crazy bull mkt. Now only left behind is FSC !!

SubsidiarieS :
2*2 logistics, Lords fright
Earlier were loss making but in last 3, 6 mnths made profit !!
________________________________________
Peers : no exact comparable but still nearly peers

............... . M.cap...... PE..... 5 yr CAGR....mcap/sales
TCI.......... 2130cr........30..........0%....1.10
All cargo...4100cr.......20.........6%.....0.75
Vrl........... 3200cr........43.........11%.... 1.8
MLL.........3052cr.........64........18%....1.14

Above taken only consideration of m.cap similarity

Other logistics player trading,
Aegis 64PE , Allcargo 18PE(good pick for med term! )

Avg logistics ind PE : 52.8

So, price band is not much high if see overall picture,

Mahindra other group share,
Mahindra CiE trading much higher PE ratio than its peer,so this one may also !!
_____________________________________
Valuation :

Profit margin : 1.7%(big negative)

5 yr PAT caGr,income CaGr :18%, 15%
3 yr PAT cagR, income CagR: 17%,11%

2016-18 PAT,income CagR(expected) : 23%,25%

@429, 2017 PE 64,

2018 Q1 EPS 2.18, Estimated 7.5-9
Take 8 rs => 2018 PE : 53

Ind PE 53,but taking consideration of good growth,strong group, enrich mkt conditions, much more business opportunity to grow than former logistics company we may give xtra 5 PE to this one,

58*8 = 464(listing tgt)
60*8 = 480( till uttrayan)
________________________________________
Favorable statements:

Overall logistics ind to grow 13% caGr in nxt 3 yr, while 3PL ind to grow 21%cagr,

So good opportunity for mahindra logistics to use this growth and unlock it''''s true value.

If MLL can increase PAT margin just near 3% in coming yrs(After GST seems possible) , then MLL has set price band 30PE of 2019(attractive)!!
_____________________________________
Allotment :

Nearly 1.97L forms reqd for 1x
Due to Nippon, khadim,niA and virtually higher price band expecting only 6-7L or below forms,
Allotment ratio may : 1/3 (Fair possibility/ almost confirmed, linkintime ????)

______________________________________
Concl.......

Subscribe for short mid long term ,possible listing gain 1-1.5 FD!

For listing gain confirmation you may wait till 3rd day 1.30pm(to check subsc fig) or till SPT says avoid!!!

M applying in any cases.

Note : GMP going down steadily with low volume , may only stabilise near 20-25!!

Load more comments (3 replies)

33.1. KISHANN | Link | Bookmark | January 12, 2018 10:01:37 AM

I think FSC has taken your view seriously!!!!

33.2. gamble | Link | Bookmark | January 12, 2018 10:13:48 AM (1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)

FSC only able to reach listing tgt(707).It must be waiting for gate results . Future Group!! We can''t do anything despite wait, things may change unannounced !!

15. gamble Dec 2, 2017 8:56:39 PM IST Reply
Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd IPO

...... Future Supply Chain Solution Ltd.......
________________________________________
1 of the largest 3PL player,
Providing services in
- contract logistics (70%)
- Express logistics (20%)
- Temperature control logistics(4%)
=>14 hubs and 106 branches across India (including franchisees and 12 of which are co-located on the same premises as our hubs), covering 11,235 pin codes across 29 states and 5 union territories.
- approximately 687 containerised vehicles, including 257 GPS-enabled vehicles of which 144 are refrigerated
trucks
_________________________________________
: high speed cross belt sarter(one of its kind in IND ) , became operational in July 2017(Net margin booster!!!)

Avg buy rate of
selling shareholder(Griffin) : 323 rs
Promotor (FEL) : 23.5rs
_________________________________________
Peer : only Mahindra Logistics Ltd (MLL)

.................................. .MLL............ FSC
PAT CAGR..................11%............. .36%
REVENUE CAGR....... 17%...............17%
Margin(''''17)................ 1.72%...........8%**
Margin(''''HY18)............1.76%...........9%**
M.cap/sales...............1.17x............4.5x
M.cap/PAT...................68x.............57x
EV/EBITDA*.................41...............36

CAGR r for past 3 yrs nly.
FSC lagging only on No. 5
*roughly calculated
** highest among all listed player.
_________________________________________
Valuation.

@664,EPS(''''17)=11.4 => PE :58

EPS(''''18) = 15.7rs(Assumed from giving 20% revenue growth with 9% margin)

=> 2018 PE =42

Now mahindra logistics (@442) trading 55 PE and 3140cr m.cap with same EBITDA(HY18) and PAT(''''17),with 1/4th net margin , 17/20th PAT(HY18) so mkt may give the exact same m.cap to FSC also
________________________________________
@3140cr m. Cap FSC price = 784 Rs(on or before 2018 GATE examination result)
Or simply 50 PE = 785 INR

Listing @45 PE = 707rs*
(nifty above 9800 preferable!! )

Same 55 PE as Mahlog => Price : 864rs(1 yr)
_________________________________________
I m bullish on whole logistics sector due to this Key drivers :
1) GST
2) Infra status given to logistics players
_________________________________________
Rii forms reqd 1.55L near so, allotment ratio may 1/4 to 1/5
_________________________________________
Conclusion.
Apply for short-mid-long term, expected listing gain 1 FD!!

Consider all Above ???? As an Imo.

33.3. IPO Riders | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 12:14:38 PM

So, for future supply chain proportionally price e comes to 850, compared to MLL.

RIGHT GAMBLEJI?

33.4. gamble | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 2:06:42 PM (1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)

Everything is right in Mkt and war!!

*Just conditions apply - if growth increases, if govt policies not affects, everyone hold stocks, Promotor don''t play, + 100s of other conditions

BTW yes 850* coming on board but, you may have to have patience just like Nippon, godrej, lombard, capacite etc.

* condition applied. ????

33.5. Aniketiaf | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 6:01:28 AM

IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)

Finally sold Mahendra logistics @ 550.
Now KHADIM is the only ipo allotted Share which is still in loss in my portfolio.
Thanks for your timely valuable guidance on all IPOs.

32. Aniketiaf | Link | Bookmark | January 16, 2018 4:52:34 AM

IPO Guru (1800+ Posts, 10200+ Likes)

Gmp of Apollo Micro crossed 200
Gmp of Newgen Software crossed 50
Gmp of Amber Enterprises crossed 450

31. harit | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 8:42:56 PM

Solid anchor investment fund coming
I still confused to subscribe

30. Arunblr | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 11:26:18 AM

Top Contributor (400 Posts, 100+ Likes)

Subscription figure please

Load more comments (1 replies)

30.2. ~~AnkurGoel~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 5:42:33 PM

Are you checking the subscription dates before asking the subscription. Wake up dude.

30.3. Arunblr | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 5:47:03 PM

Top Contributor (400 Posts, 100+ Likes)

Sorry.... Because of weekend and today pongal holiday. It slipped from my mind.

29. ronakmds | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 10:05:26 AM

What is the total issue size of this IPO.

29.1. amit K singh | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 10:56:52 AM

IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)

400cr

28. ~~Ashok Goyal~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 7:56:02 AM

gmp?
Apply or avoid?

27. ~~Ashok Goyal~~ | Link | Bookmark | January 15, 2018 7:54:46 AM

gmp?
Apply or avoid?

26. raj agrawal | Link | Bookmark | January 14, 2018 10:38:36 AM

Hey
Is retailer guies apply via HINI quota or not

26.1. amit K singh | Link | Bookmark | January 14, 2018 7:42:22 PM

IPO Guru (1000+ Posts, 1600+ Likes)

Yes, but you need to apply for amounts more than 2lakhs

25. gamble | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 8:54:06 PM (1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)

........... Newgen Software Technologies ........
_________________________________________________

- Platform provider to develop powerful software applications (which mainly use in banking,PSUs, insurance, BPO - IT)

- Revenue cAGr 21%
- PAT CagR 9%
- M.cap 1696cr(@245)
- ronw = 19%
_________________________________________

Post issue equity 6,92,35,701.

2017 PAT 52,36,00,000rs
EpS 7.56 => PE : 32.4x.

2018 HY1 PAT 5.84cr(only!!)
EPS 0.99 =>Possible Full yr PAT 47cr(10% margin of 470cr revenue)

Full yr EPS 6.8 => PE : 36x

Margin are steadily on decline mode :
2013......2014.....2015.....2016....2017
18%........16%.......15%........8%......12%

________________________________________

Peers in actual : None
Somewhat peers :

..................P/S......... PE........ PAT Cagr

Newgen...... 4x..........36.........9%
Nucleus.......4x..........25.........8%
Mastek*..... 1.8x.........20........40%

Many other also available but mostly trading below 25PE/3x sales in this bull mkt also!!

* good pick in downsides
________________________________________

...... Evenif ipo came in bull mkt, looking at financials, above 30PE wouldn''t be appropriate for neWgen.

@30PE = 204rs + 10% of mkt = 225 Rs.(imo fair value)

Possible Listing = flat to negative, khadim/Shalby type..

______________________________________

Rii reqd 99k forms , if 6L come(yes possible, rii have good money in hand now a days!)...... Allotment ratio 1/6

_______________________________________
ConcL.

One may Try to avoid even if subscription fig goes high !!

....... Consider above as an imo ????........

Load more comments (3 replies)

25.4. RJ Rocks | Link | Bookmark | January 14, 2018 11:01:10 AM

Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)

Thanks Gamble Sir for your valuable reply and guiding us.

25.5. RaviCH | Link | Bookmark | January 14, 2018 5:06:39 PM

Thank you very much sir for your valuable analysis. We cannot get this type of analysis anywhere for free. Thanks for being with us....

24. ipo share | Link | Bookmark | January 14, 2018 12:14:26 AM

IPO Guru (1500+ Posts, 700+ Likes)

@ gamble
Thank you very much for a deep rooted analysis.
GMP is also telling what you have analysed.
An avoid candidate.

23. RJ Rocks | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 4:58:33 PM

Top Contributor (400+ Posts, 200+ Likes)

Gamble Sir.
We are waiting for your review of NEWGEN software.
Thanks in advance.

23.1. Arup jamshed | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 5:16:53 PM (900+ Posts, 300+ Likes)

Yes gamble sir

22. Market kid | Link | Bookmark | January 12, 2018 9:55:21 PM

About Newgen software techno

Everyone waiting for gamble''s review that''s okay! But see this first

1) A man with superstition (yes proud to be an Indian )

Logo : What the hell circle doing in their logo ? Looks like black hole, energy concentrating on Centre of circle and things just go inside infinitely . Means like they want people''s money from everyone but not want to return back !

2) A man with absolute no knowledge of fundamentals but evaluating company

As many times i said i believe marketcap is the greatest parameters to check stock valuation

Here Market capitalisation : 1700 cr

Now question is how they can ask 4x valuation of sales ??

While other software company trading 2-3x, even giant Elexi trading 4.5x

Even the crap parameter PE also suggesting " maja nahi hai issue mai "
PE 32 .

Graham fair value : ( 7.5*(8 + 2(10)) : 210rs

Load more comments (2 replies)

22.3. gamble | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 2:11:22 PM (1600+ Posts, 3900+ Likes)

@kid you are growing really fast, keep it up!
Graham fair value is absolutely good parameter to check, but @10690 niftY not possible to find good share at fair value,

But Yes, Talwarkar has amazing potential and value to unlock.

22.4. KRB | Link | Bookmark | January 13, 2018 3:50:34 PM

Market kid

Newgen software target can be anything in this bull market. It least matters.

But mentioning Graham formula in this small cap bull market is remarkable.

Its like watching "Shawshank Redemption" after "Ramgarh ke sholay".

Even if one percent in this forum understood what you have written, then they don''t need to worry about future investment and multibaggers.

Rest may look for paid cheater advisory or listen to media made superstars i.e idiots like Porinju Veliyath, Sudarshan Sukhani or SPT..

Market kid....God bless you for this free seva...
(G is capital)