Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO Message Board (Page 1)

Are accha kiya apne bata diya.....nahi to na jaane kya ho jaata.....

Short?

Sir, good to see you back, but looking at some of your recent comments, I really doubt it''s the same Septa or someone else. You always used to back your statements with some facts but nowadays I see mostly passing remarks from you.
Do you really think it''s worth 300?

@300 fair value agree but when nifty goes below 8000,

Don''t get me wrong sir,
I don''t understand why u got fair value near 300 and expecting sharp downfall,

If see m.cap/sales

Then only GATI/ALL cargo is cheaper, otherwise other trading
Blue dart >3x,Vrl >2x, TCI =1.1x (vs MLL 1.1x) with same or below growth.

So issue price is not much that high like 130 rs high (30% correction possible )

We can give 50PE easily imo, So max 390-400 possible (@this mkt lvls)

I gave xtra 5 pe because of strong group,
But that factor seems priced in, still

I M HOPING FOR 450+ (FD) in coming days with SL.

Let see!!
Finger not crossed !!

Gamble I never take anything in serious Take my new project use Bot to trade in pair trading where each trade is 40% to 69% return so I Hardly get time with primary market.
As I said earlier market is in bubble phase. Like 2007 when valuation do not make sense.

Value is relative to market sentiment and free float .. and for ML it is also relative to business it gets from outside M&M which is both a positive and negative ... how long will the management hold the script ?

I strongly believe it is 300 stock.

Only reason for short msg its time constraint

Let me try and explain why i think this a 300 kind of stock not 429 type stock

growth is 20% margin is 2% so even if grows by 20% it will take five years at least to double EPS

present PE is 60 so in five years if it grows by 20% PE will be 30 PE...... make EPS of 15


so if discount future growth to present value i get Rs 270 as fair value

GST will benefit but will be negligible so another 10% giving a GST adjusted fair value Rs300

Initial Cash Flow:       Rs 46,00,00,000.00                   
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      15%      10%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      5%            Discount Rate:      10%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      7,11,41,924            Margin of Safety:      25%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      55,20,00,000       20%       Rs 50,18,18,181.82       
2      66,24,00,000       20%       Rs 54,74,38,016.53       
3      78,82,56,000       19%       Rs 59,22,28,399.70       
4      93,80,24,640       19%       Rs 64,06,83,450.58       
5      1,10,68,69,075       18%       Rs 68,72,78,610.63       
6      1,30,61,05,509       18%       Rs 73,72,62,509.58       
7      1,52,81,43,445       17%       Rs 78,41,79,214.74       
8      1,78,79,27,831       17%       Rs 83,40,81,528.40       
9      2,07,39,96,284       16%       Rs 87,95,76,884.50       
10      2,40,58,35,689       16%       Rs 92,75,53,805.47       
                        
                        
Terminal Year       Rs 2,52,61,27,473.73                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                   Rs 7,13,21,00,601.94       
                        
Terminal Value:                   Rs 19,47,86,29,914.84       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                   Rs 26,61,07,30,516.78       
                        
Number of Shares:                  7,11,41,924       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                   Rs 374.05       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                   Rs 280.54       
                        
What Percentage of IV comes from                   73%      
the Terminal Value:                        
                        

Thanks for full analytical answer,

On lighter note margin of safety has almost gone as nifty trading 10k mark,

So 374 type value good,

but if margin improves after gst just a little bit let say 1.9-2%(frm current 1.7%) then full yr income 3300*cr (q1 854cr) PAt 62 - 66 cr then EPS 9rs,

@429 PE 47,@400 PE 44,@300 PE 33(¡!)

@450 PE 50

Plus little more optimistic because if see All logistics then they still struggling to cross 2015 PAT(highest ever for logistics) , but MLL has given good increases in 2017 frm 2015 ,and q12018

Plus margin improves splendidly in logistics firms in Q2,

Like TCI ( 6.2% vs 5.33%(yoy)
Vrl (4.8% vs 3%)

Allcargo margin down so today punished, now hv higher hope on GATI and Offcourse MLL. !!
. So just little improvements on margin front and we good imo


DCF only calculate earnings with expected growth but ignore total sales (other word PE multiple only with growth rate)

gamble i not sure how big is ur investment or how many years in market..... 30 years back one person advice buy an abattoir for price of butcher shop u will never go wrong in bear market

Sir,
My experience in mkt = 1/5th or 1/7th or even below that may b!!

Let me put this discussion to an end

You believe that mkt is very high valuation and i believe still something left.
So no point of see financials, as if mkt see sharp correction even Biggie may crash so not possible MLL can give return.

Agree u never go wrong in bear mkt,
But
''''not everything is buy in bear mkt and not everything is sell on bull mkt''''

Sir
WE ALL KNOW IN MARKET .
Approximately 500 companies traded 2-3times to its fair value.
As per your analysis it is traded 1.5 times (original value 300 but it is traded 430.)
SO THERE IS NO PROBLEM IN THIS STOCK

SIR, WHERE ARE FUNDAMENTALS AND ETHICS IN THE present MARKET?

It is difficult to say how much (if any) steam is left in this market as it has been looking for long, some solid reasons to correct significanrly but that it has not been able to find so far. E.g. last week was bearish and looked like market was preparing to correct but now today GST rates has gone down and market will cheer it on Monday. This cannot continue indefinitely..and till major 10+% percentage types correction happens....all valuations calculation will not hold.
Now the question is what we should be ideally doing till then. Septa has already started focus on capital preservation to reduce risk where as gamble is willing to take more risk and continue to focus on gains for some more time. I believe both are right and difference is more in their risk perception. Each one of us should have our own risk profile and market risk perception based on which we should take stance on specific stocks and IPO offers. Both Septa and gamble have great understanding of the market and that has helped large no of boarders in this forum. Let us continue collaborating in the same spirit and generate wealth for ourselves.