294.1. P Patel| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:54:52 PM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
@ramjet,
1) Yes you will get 1 lot if subscribed 250 times 2) Your chance to get 1 lot will be 1.4 out of 2 applications or 14 out of 20 applications if subscriptions will be 300.
294.2. ManishDwiv| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:58:14 PM
Top Contributor (500+ Posts, 200+ Likes)
You will get 0 lots in both the cases as its gonna subscribe more than 300 times
Someone from Graham and Buffett school of investment wants to share few words of caution to tame retail investor''s greed... 1) FY21 P/E ratio of IPO is 130.7 (it means if earning remains constant it would take 130 years for you to get back your investment amount. in other words, in earnings remain at 11.4 you will not get your money back in your life time). 2) Most people argue, it''s high growth business. fair enough. If I budget 20% CAGR growth in EPS still at IPO price P/E ratio after 5 years (FY 2025) is 63.03. If I add gmp of 870 Rs into IPO price then P/E ratio after 5 years is still 99.83 3) If I assume impossible 40% CAGR EPS growth in EPS, still at IPO price P/E ratio after 5 years (FY 2025) is 63.03. If I add gmp of 870 Rs into IPO price then P/E ratio after 5 years is still 53.89 (this is too much for no. 5 player in the industry unless they can come up with some new game changing innovation which competitors can''t reproduce. Akzo Noble - no 4 player in Indian market and global giant is currently trading at P/E ratio of 62.42 on trailing twelve month basis). 4) Even if this fairly tale story continues, I wonder who would buy on listing day from retail investor at such a elevated price? PS: As someone who is rational investor who relay on mathematics rather than emotions, I am not subscribing to this IPO. I am just sharing my quick analysis for benefits of my fellow investors. I am not SEBI registered investment advisor, please consult your brain and don''t relay on me (or anyone else) for making your investment decision.
292.1. Adv Sarin| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 11:37:09 AM
Top Contributor (200+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
What ever you say is correct but in share markets who care for rationales, every one just running to buy or sell Pull or push. Crossing 50K mark that too when economy/GDP is all time low may be since independence or the Birth of India. So people will make profit if not at least Companies bringing IPO at such rates are making a Kill.
My parting advice is wise words of Buffett - "Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy". I feel investors are super greedy due to good run of few IPOs in past 1-2 months (history always repeats itself and you can easily predict market top by IPO mania), so I am avoiding this trap as it''s not supported by numbers and analysis.
IMHO, this IPO is like picking penny in front of road roller (bull dozer). You might make some money if you are lucky but risks is disproportionately high. All the best to those who still decide to take plunge into prohibitively priced IPOs.
What you said is 1000% true. Unfortunately, market has lost its marbles and nowadays the mantra is Growth at any Price. As long as this keeps growing the house of cards will not fall. Best we can do is profit with listing gains and exit the counter.
In my opinion, most IPOs are inherently against retail investors (giving handsome gain to venture capitals and promoters). For good issues you may not get allotment so no real profit (you might get tiny allotment of 1 lot so mostly profit is meagre) and if you get into poor issue then you will incur real loss which would be substantial.
PS: Only silver lining I see that India has tremendous potential for ethical, independent and rational portfolio manager/investment advisor. Brokerages and media always put subscribe rating on almost IPOs without any credible research.
I agree that there is a mania out there and people are ready to buy this at exorbitant prices (GMP) right now. And that when the correction comes it will be a crash like in BK. However, quoting the same person, "it''s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price".
Making a break into an oligopoly industry forces you to be innovative enough - and even 2% market share in 20 years is quite a feat. Right now their mcap is just ~7,000 crore (at 1500 per share), and if they grow 10x their size in the coming 2-3 decades no one will think that 1500/share or even 2000/share was too much of a price to pay.
I think the high PE will get easily offset by some correction (though I wonder if it would correct to its issue price) + increase in earnings. And it''s okay to be a little off for those who are in it for the long haul - the entry price doesn''t really matter if it''s a darn good company, because in that case the peaks of tomorrow will foreshadow any peaks or valleys of today.
[On the side note, don''t know if it''s true or not, but when someone asked Warren "why doesn''t everyone just copy your style of investing and get rich?", he said that "It''s because no one wants to get rich slow"].
292.8. Mr. Singh| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 2:12:35 PM
IPO Mentor (600+ Posts, 400+ Likes)
Your thoughts on overvaluation is right...but calculation is wrong. PE 50 means at no growth you will get whole invested money as earning in 50 years...but there is also asset value that will remain same or up/down. Otherwise even PE 12 would be costly if you think whole investment return will be in 12 years.
Looks like you have lost a lot of money in the past two sessions and the frustration is coming out here. If only that were to be the case no one would have ever made money in high p/e stocks. Look at Dmart, HUL, Nestle and Seimens their upward journey still continues despite having high p/e ratio. If only maths were to be an indicator of success in stocks. All mathematicians would have become billionaires investing in stocks.
291. Paymzia| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 2:07:26 PM
IPO Guru (2300+ Posts, 4400+ Likes)
QIP. 166.29. X
HNI 227.04. X
RIL. 15.25. X
EMPLOYEE. 2.30. X
TOTAL. 102 .50. X
290. MAPatel| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 2:04:03 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
286.1. Paymzia| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:47:05 PM
IPO Guru (2300+ Posts, 4400+ Likes)
Your application rejected
286.2. P Patel| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:51:08 PM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
Single lot if you are lucky in draw...
286.3. P Patel| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:56:36 PM
IPO Mentor (900+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
Considering you applied multiple lots in single application. IF you apply multiple applications in single demat account, all applications will be rejected...
285. Paymzia| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:51:19 PM
IPO Guru (2300+ Posts, 4400+ Likes)
QIP. 134.67. X
HNIb 208. 31. X
RIL. 14.82. X
EMPLOYEE. 2.21. X
TOTAL. 89.41. X
284. Eagleye| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:49:39 PM
IPO Guru (6600+ Posts, 21900+ Likes)
Indigo Paints IPO
LAST Day *2:45PM*
The following data is assuming the shares will be issued at @1490/- (upper price band)
*RII Applications: 26.61L* Approx No. of Applic-wise: 9.76X
280. MAPatel| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:28:39 PM
Top Contributor (300+ Posts, 100+ Likes)
@ 2:25 PM
Qualified Institutional Buyers(QIBs)* 118.21 Non Institutional Investors 201.26 Retail Individual Investors(RIIs) 14.05 Employee Reservation 2.11 Total 82.89 Total No.of Application Approx : 26.55L Retail Subscription on the basis of Apps : 9.75 x
279. Paymzia| Link| Bookmark|
January 22, 2021 1:25:25 PM
IPO Guru (2300+ Posts, 4400+ Likes)