Healthcare Global Enterprises Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 15)

guys on last day of ipo till how much time one can apply ?

the grey market is showing 25/-... I think it may be another quick heal

quick heal is different animal this sector is high growth sector compare quick heal

Sept ji, In this site objects of issue#fund use# 3.pre payment of debt

lot of companies do

if this issue not good then how is best rope issue rs 45 issue price is it good ?

Better wait n watch for subscription figures. Avoid from my side. If DIIs n NIIs show interest with good subscription figures then apply for min lot. Good luck.

Agree...

Maar dalaega bhai logo doooor raaahoooo NH me promoters aachai thai lekin 218 Rs bahut expensive... mat lagao...loss hua 50000 ka PCL OR QH me .....HCG not good

Retailerrrrrrr toh giyooo
QH me kya kare 600share at 280 ho gai 321 pe 325

Septa ji, r u know details of pre payment of debt?

did not understand the question

do me mean debt of HCG yes they r going get 250 crs of which 170 crs will be given to reduce the debt rest will be used to upgrade the IT and corporate stuff

actual the business model is little different from conventional hospital model is run under Hub-and-Spoke Model which IMO has lot of spoke of mis management and corporate governance ..... So in lay man term HCG does not own any hospital it owns a brand HCG which it then JV with other big local hospital to run its cancer department....

So the question is will the market pay 1900 crs for the brand name with not much assets to back with it with this model growth can be leveraged big time however each new HCG centre will be JV at different term.....

So given this structure of business model we r paying for brand name so risk is high any standalone JV could break or change....

I am now sitting on fence on this issue given this Hub-and-Spoke Model HCG

pinkji i understand the point JV is good and all positive and leg up....

what i am saying it is not fair to value a fully fledge hospital with own hospital assets in the same way as someone only giving its name....
value comes from ownership not renting ur name ....

established hospital can also the same model to grow at faster rate given its asbacking

say apollo hospital MC is 19000 crs it assets in land building hospital bed would be 10000 crs..... just guesstimate

In case of HCG 1900 crs assets in form building bed ZERO......

which does not put then in same mantel in calculating valuation

So this 1900 cr MC is getting paid for brand not for assets

Dear Septa - I think I disagree with your inference..my inference suggests that they own the assets and the equipment inside each centre (hub or spoke) which they run as a JV and they also consolidate it...it seems like at times they may not own the land and building...this I think is prudent...as owning land and building adds no value...also since lease contracts are typically long term in nature and JV''s are with local doctors in that region so I think the hub and spoke model benefits from the local reputation of that doctor and the footfalls he already has...

To summarize...my reading suggests that it is simply not lending of brand name...entire asincluding equipment (except land / building at times) is on the Balance Sheet of HCG...HCG consolidates all JV''s and subsidiaries it appears to me!

if no corporate mismanagement like quick heal then its rock roll no risk

one thing is clear based on revenue and revenue growth also better ROE and higher ebidt margin it clearly better bet then NH however NH is backed by Devi shetty it is how the anchor books look give the company is planing to give 60% of QIB to anchor investor ... not sure is is 60% of QIB to anchor or 60% of 75% that is 45% to Anchor can some one clear this

The regulation suggests that it will be 60% of 75%...which is 45% of the overall issue essentially to the Anchor!

Which is why I think I agree with you and the rest..that Anchor book performance and allocation will be a key deciding factor...But I increasingly view the business favourably versus peers like Apollo, Fortis and NH, the more I look at it...

gr8 septaji so it should be applied ri8 ?

gr8 septaji so it should be applied ri8 ?

so i think it will list around rs 330 ?

i have assumed next year they will make a profit of 15 crs at least
Initial Cash Flow:      ($25,90,00,000)                  
                        
Years:      1-5      6-10            
Growth Rate:      25%      25%            
                        
Terminal Growth Rate:      10%            Discount Rate:      11%
                        
Shares Outstanding:      8,20,00,000             Margin of Safety:      30%
Debt Level:                        
                        
Year      Flows      Growth      Value      
1      15,00,00,000       25%      $13,55,01,355       
2      18,75,00,000       25%      $15,30,05,143       
3      22,50,00,000       20%      $16,58,59,234       
4      27,00,00,000       20%      $17,97,93,208       
5      32,40,00,000       20%      $19,48,97,786       
6      38,88,00,000       20%      $21,12,71,313       
7      46,65,60,000       20%      $22,90,20,393       
8      53,65,44,000       15%      $23,79,16,398       
9      61,70,25,600       15%      $24,71,57,956       
10      70,95,79,440       15%      $25,67,58,491       
                        
                        
Terminal Year      $78,05,37,384                   
                        
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows:                  $2,01,11,81,277       
                        
Terminal Value:                  $40,34,77,62,867       
                        
Total PV of Cash Flows:                  $42,35,89,44,144       
                        
Number of Shares:                  8,20,00,000       
                        
Intrinsic Value (IV):                  $516.57       
                        
Margin of Safety IV:                  $361.60       
                        

this year flow is loss 25.90 crs

actual DCF method is not correct given my assumption is based on making profit however i am sure about the growth rate however Profits could be hard to assume so pls do not take this calculation also i have assumed terminal growth at 10% which Imo is correct however DCF u normally few percentage point below inflation or max GDP... Higher terminal growth does not give correct calculation

SO on DCF it looks cheap bcoz of wrong assumption

is it similar to teamlease ? Its book value ?

Name       Last Price      Market Cap.(Rs. cr.) SalesTurnover      Net Profit       Total Assets
Apollo Hospital      1,394.10       19,395.44       4,592.79       346.59      4,677.65
Fortis Health       172.00       7,965.73       610.64       -33.91      4,276.85
Narayana Hruda       297.10       6,071.56       786.00 25.00
Poly Medicure 314.00       1,385.16       373.69       61.02      250.27
Kovai Medical       641.65       702.11       401.62       38.70      270.82
Indraprastha       50.75       465.24       713.39       32.49      230.16
HCG 218 1900.00 425.00 -25.00


given NP is loss Imo comparing revenue to Market Cap we can get an idea how the IPo is valued

Apollo is 4.29 times
Fortis is 13 times
NH is 7 times
HCG is 4.49

IMO fundamental one should apply... I am going to apply this issue for sure

ri8 septaji NH GOOD EXAMPLE TO COMPARE HOW MUCH VALUATION ON REVENUE TO PRICE METHOD ? WHAT IS ITS BOOK VALUE ?

Hello everybody.....IPO days are back...

Need to keep any eye on what their anchor investors look like and take a call accordingly...

Is it!!...ok..actually even better then...kind of anchor investors would be a good indicator of issue quality if Anchor is fully taken by good names...

60 per cent of the QIB portion may be allocated to anchor investors on a discretionary basis, of which one-third will be reserved for domestic mutual funds only (besides an additional five per cent outside the anchor portion). So let see how much demand

dear septa as per DCF VALUATION HOW MUCH VALUE OF SHARE ?

will do and update however if u compare apple with apple that is with NH HGE looks better on revenue to price offer