I wish this IPO came at 345...........
So the IPO price is out or at least that is what informed circle are saying so based on that retail level 424 is IPO price which is 5% more then expected line however would have like it 15% lower . fundamental at 424 it is almost fulling price so the GMP of 85 will not stand IMO. It is PSU completely dependent of government work very flat growth like many PSU technically very out dated compare to world leader in a state labour strong state like kerala. IMO this a weak IPO with up side of 10% to 20%. However given the last IPOs return to could be list at 500 plus.
However it will not list at discount at least government does not want this to happen IMO the price should have been 350-360 given investor good return may be even government is getting greedy. HNI will avoid this IPO as cost and return will be risky so it HNI is not oversubscribe one can apply with ur own funds so if it falls u do not need to sell ur wife jewellery. Also another thumb rule use ur money and use only 2to 5% of total money. say u have Rs 100 invest max Rs 5 in HNI
Initial Cash Flow: Rs 2,80,00,00,000.00
Years: 1-5 6-10
Growth Rate: 20% 15%
Terminal Growth Rate: 5% Discount Rate: 10%
Shares Outstanding: 13,59,36,000 Margin of Safety: 25%
Debt Level:
Year Flows Growth Value
1 3,08,00,00,000 10% Rs 2,80,00,00,000.00
2 3,35,72,00,000 9% Rs 2,77,45,45,454.55
3 3,62,57,76,000 8% Rs 2,72,40,99,173.55
4 3,87,95,80,320 7% Rs 2,64,98,05,559.73
5 4,11,23,55,139 6% Rs 2,55,34,48,993.92
6 4,31,79,72,896 5% Rs 2,43,73,83,130.56
7 4,49,06,91,812 4% Rs 2,30,44,34,959.80
8 4,62,54,12,566 3% Rs 2,15,77,89,098.72
9 4,71,79,20,818 2% Rs 2,00,08,58,982.45
10 4,76,51,00,026 1% Rs 1,83,71,52,338.44
Terminal Year Rs 5,00,33,55,027.16
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: Rs 24,23,95,17,691.73
Terminal Value: Rs 38,58,01,99,107.14
Total PV of Cash Flows: Rs 62,81,97,16,798.86
Number of Shares: 13,59,36,000
Intrinsic Value (IV): Rs 462.13
Margin of Safety IV: Rs 346.60