Aether Industries Limited IPO Message Board (Page 5)

@hchc,
You have given a great news. Thanks. You are always there to give the first hand news. Keep it up. You are doing a great job.

bhav, quantity aur GMP jese hi mile please update kijiyega..

@hchc ji
Thanks for update 🙏
Prima facie Medanta IPO doesn't excite me.
Reasons:
✓ Highly concentrated in NCR & Lucknow (82% of total bed capacity). It is also present in Indore, Ranchi & Patna.
✓ They also operate five multi-specialty clinics at Delhi NCR(Cybercity, Delhi Airport, south Delhi)and Bihar (Darbhanga and Patna).
✓ Since High mostly concentrated in Northern Region (NCR & Lucknow), it will get immense competition from biggies like Max, Appollo, Fortis, Naranya etc.
✓ 83% revenue comes from IPD(In-patient).
✓ Despite such high IPD ARPOB is 47-48K only.
✓ IPO will consist of Fresh offer & OFS. Fresh offer will be used for Debt Reduction & General corporate purpose. Where other hospitals are aggressively expanding in their core reason but this hospital has only plan to built hospital in Noida and that too will operate from 2025.
√Revenue from operations:
14,46.7cr ; 15,00.4cr and 14,55.8cr in 2021, 2020 and 2019 respectively which is flat in pre pandemic year/normal years.
✓Profit after tax :28.8 cr; 36.3 cr and 51.3 cr in 2021, 2020 and 2019 respectively. PAT margin is very slim.

I will come with more update and information once IPO officially comes to the floor.

Thank you 🙏

Thanks @Jetha Lal sir for beforehand information 🙏

Thanks hchc (please let us know your name) for updating us, you are one of the jewel of the forum.
Anyway if at all it will be suitable to apply I would like to recover the losses of rainbow (3 lots : sold 2, holding 1) from its cousin company 😂😂😂.
Best wishes for Fidel.
Thanks

@K.Atar ji
What if it becomes another rainbow?😂
Let's wait for price band.
Rainbow is still in niche segment where they have stronghold and better brand recognition in their market.
Medanta flagship hospital is in Gurgaon and Max, Fortis, Apollo, Narayana will always give it stiff competition.

Yes Jetha Lal ji,
That is my target and wish, if at all it happened, and found medanta suitable to apply otherwise no regrets, in market no one can make money all the time. Wins and losses are part and parcel of the game.
Thanks for your analysis and views, I read all your posts and find it interesting that you possess so much knowledge yet you are humble.
My Regards 🙏

@K.Atar
Wats in d name yaar …. Once d name is disclosed then all d differentiations starts … recently v had that example here only which has involved castes & religions …
So let it be hchc ….. alphabets of a language
Let’s hope that IPO markets gets its mojo back very quickly

Noted @hchc
Wish you good health and good luck. Keep posting, love your advance news/updates. I know many others too very much like the updates given by you.. 💐

@K.Atar Ji
Thank you for your kind words 🙏☺️
Knowledge & humility can go together:)
I absolutely agree with you w.r.t gains & losses in market.
We are learners and we will keep on learning and earning 😀

@Hchc ji you are doing wonderful job🙏
God bless you:)

@ Jetha lal ji, your analysis are mostly objective and valuable for us. Regarding your analysis of Medanta, I want to say, it's a league above other hospitals in NCR, like Fortis, Max, Apollo etc. and therefore, these may not offer him that much of a competition, which probably you are envisaging. I am staying in Gurgaon and Medanta is considered the ultimate in medical care in northern India. So, in my view, there won't be any dearth of patients due to any sort of competition.

@ipobull ji
Congratulations for handsome profit in Aether industries👏
I hope it will make more profit for you.
I agree with your points.
Exceptions are there but point no. 2 works most of the time.
IRFC disappointed me too but I exited when it came around Rs 26(I guess it happened twice post listing). Afterward I am completely against PSUs IPO(except very attractive defence PSU ipo in bull run).

@Jetha Lal.. Which one you find more attractive: UPL or Aether? UPL used to be in my portfolio for time but i had missed to capture the 600->900 swift move. Now that is range bound.

In PSU Gail has never incurred me loss i kept for small duration many times mainly to reap rangebound moves. Now many brokerage giving 200 target and buyback price was also 195.. Holding small qty this time.

@ColdBurger
Gail is range bound and definitely one can expect about 15-20% returns at current rate. It's a safe bet to park one's excess money. Can it reach 200 in 1-2 years time? I seriously doubt about it in current market situation. It's all time high of Rs.195 was in Sept-2018. In five years it's revenue is projected to increase by 35%. For it to cross 200 you might have to hold it for at least another five years. IMO.

I also bought chalak bhai but at 740 for a short term bounce

Congratulations..

now stop loss is 777
wait for uc

sl izz 797

@God is Great,
I may request other experts to provide their expertise on short term target.

p.s: my personal opinion, it may possible for 800-825 target in the coming days.

Thanks

Yes you are right.. I request to all members of this family kindly sharing your own view or target or Heartfillings about aether!!!!becoz new company and new listining so judgemento Of target price become so critical...

800 is possible on monday itself..may open gapup by atleast 3%..That itself gives 800..

@God is Great... Near/Short term target is already achieves with ~20% gain @ 770+. It will be a bit gready to expect more in short term. For medium/ long term we can hold, but for short term we should but a stop loss at 770 on Monday and sell at close of day...

And for long term investors like me I am expecting it to give 50 -60% atleast if not more...

Thanks dear avenue, stokoholic, mravi for valuable guidance

Short term :875-925
Mostly due to demand, even on Monday it will be on UC.
It will be interesting to observe pending orders on closing on Monday.

@Skavinab.. I take liberty to reply. I had huge allotment and had have been selling whenever I saw any opportunity. Last time I sold good lots @ 506 when I saw good opportunity. Since you mentioned "short term", set target, be watch full and partially sell at highs around 500. I am not an expert and just sharing my personal experience.

@Skavinab ji
As per my personal knowledge and observation I can tell you that exit on bounce if you are in Rainbow for short term with minimal loss(if you get IPO price then it would be best) because Shareholding pattern suggest not much institution demand because bulk deal wasn't there and neither very high delivery % is there in last two weeks.

Since I am a long term investor so I tried to analyse resent quarter result and management commentary there of after reading your question.
If anyone is here for long term then few points I would like to bring to their attention:
√ In next 3 years they are planning to add 500 additional beds(33% more than their existing capacity of 1500 beds) in their existing market i.e Hyderabad, Chennai, Delhi NCR. Capex plan is around 300 cr and they have Cash of 200 cr presently and rest will come from internal accruals.
✓ ARPOB is around 43000(best in industry), Occupancy around 50-55%(reach 70% in Hyderabad) so room for growth in matured market. Normal Ebitda margin is 25-26% which is healthy.This is unique business/hotel with very good brand in home market and since income rise is rapid in big IT cities and parents are very emotional towards their children so good growth prospects ahead.
✓ Rapid EBITDA breakeven happen in existing market vis-a-vis new geography because of brand recognition (Delhi NCR is still now matured market for this company)
√ Matured market is Telugu (Hyderabad is biggest and main hospital) market and good position in Chennai as well .
✓ Matured market are IT areas. Since most IT companies are asking employees back to office so it is helpful for this company.
√ There is seasonality in the business as Q1(Vacation time) and Q4(Exam time) are not peak quarter for them and Q2&Q3 are best quarters for business. Hence whoever wants to exit within 1 year then exit after Q3 result.

This is an unique hospital (specialist to around birth of children and their nutrition) which grown around 20% CAGR pre pandemic. It built trustable brand in home market i.e Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai. Good future expansion plan in existing market and they have plan to expand in North East territory which is not much explored by many players. Valuation is also reasonable in comparison to peers.
Since people are getting more aware about healthcare and parents are very emotional towards their children and don't compromise with birth or health of their children so good prospect for this company. It is predominantly into bigger cities so people can pay more for healthcare.
A long term Investor who wish to keep hospital stock can have certain exposure in this company for long term (3-5 years).

Thank you 🙏

@Jetha Lal Sir, Totally agree with your analysis. had got a couple of lots in the allotment and bought some more shares after listing. This company is a niche player in the healthcare industry and it would be interesting to see its growth in the next 4-5 years.
And also, great analysis on Aether Industries. Speciality chemical companies have given good returns in the last 3-4 years. I think this would also give good returns in the next 3 to 5 years.
Keep Posting Sir!!

Holding allotted as well as averaged shares @510. I think I should atleast see Q2 results before thinking of exiting. Also, I might exit sooner if CMP is about 550 (looks far fetched bnow).

@Jeetha Lal ... you remind me of one of my college friend who was too good at studies. He used to answer even 2 mark Question in details even when in was mentioned that answer in brief. That's how good you are...
I selfishly look forward to your readings on forthcoming IPOs after current break..

I feel everyone loves to make money, but profit sound even sweeter when you have helped others to gain with you.

Best wishes...

Avenue,
Thank you so much ☺️
I am glad that your old friend came to your memory. It's always fantastic to remember good old times:)

I have learnt a lot from you and other senior members like Lokes sir, Noorul ji, MRavi sir and many other senior and experienced members. I thought I should give back something meaningful that can be helpful to people at large as tribute to such fantastic forum and people.

Here many people come with their their own wants like some want investment grade IPO or some want just listing and short term gains and I feel both are equally correct at their own place.
I decided that I will present data, information, knowledge and analysis with proofs and sources as per best of my capabilities, knowledge & experience and let people decide best for themselves.

In this process other members will also share their knowledge and experience and I will equally learn from them. Learning and earning should keep on flowing.
It's really joyous to grow and earn together.

Thank you 🙏

C. Have fun:)

Prithviraj movie not good at all.

Can’t decide which movie, I think I’ll wait for Dilip Davda review

@Ultransnow,
Lol 😂, Good one ☝️

Thanks

@Ultrasnow.. 🤣🤣

A) Samrat Prithviraj - May Watch
B) Major - May Watch
C) Vikram - May Watch
D) All of above. - Avoid

@ultrasnow ji
You have amazing sense of humour and it was really witty & hilarious 🤣🤣
Keep it up 👍👍👍

I think @admin should bring pin comment option so that we can pin valuable and interesting comments:)

@Avenue
These days Dilip sir is very consistent with "May Apply" review 😂😂

Ha ha, good one on the movie review!

However, I'd better look up the balance sheets (box office collections) of the movies before deciding which one to buy tickets for (IPO subscriptions). There may be cooked books, inflated expenses or sales, advertising expenses etc. We should be vigilant...lol

@Monster Zero... I have not seen any IPO so much in love with listing price. After listing price move north or south, but eMudhra has only moved east. Since 3 days since listing it has not closed even one rupees up or down. Probably will have to wait for another week to see decisive movement.

@Monster Zero,
Thanks for sharing the information.

@Avenue,
''I have not seen any IPO so much in love with listing price'' hahaha, its so true (btw, you are really a genius in formulating a quote like this).

p.s: Next week break-up 💔 for sure and hopefully go north

Thanks

Dunno if I'm thinking right but demand for digital certs should be more in the last quarter due to demand from entities related to taxation and audits.

@MRavi.. To be frank.. not genius I am frustated with eMudhra. To experiment and study new trend I did not apply in IPO and bought at listing. since then I have waiting and waiting for it to move either way, but have not succeeded so far. That's why commented love for listing price.

BTW I tried same experiment in Prudent and earned 10%, but eMudhra is in love with listing price...

More importantly I am concerned about Lokes. He has never been absent from forum for so long. I think his last comments was a week back. Hope he is fine and just busy in work. I hope he joins back next week.
Have a good weekend and great days ahead....
Cheers