Aether Industries Limited IPO Message Board (Page 1)

I wish geopolitical tension calm down, crude gets cheaper and inflation comes under control.

@Er. Jitendra Kumar ji,
I can understand how you might feel when you look at your portfolio. Let me assure you that you are not alone in this difficult market condition.

This is the time when we should look back, introspect and see if we whether we picked weak stocks or good stocks at high price. We learn most of our lesson in bear market and we get best of opportunities in bear market.

Few tips I can share which may help you to make good money in future.
✓ Don't average weak/risky/mistake stocks.
✓ Accumulate fundamentally strong businesses available at reasonable valuation in SIP mode or on every fall.
✓ Don't stop your MF SIPs.
✓ If anyday index fall more than 2-3% in single day then buy ETF(NiftyBees, Juniorbees etc) or accumulate ETF on every major fall.

Always remember that whenever economy slowdown happened or recession came then the rally post recovery is most strongest and market made fresh high. You can check dotcom crash, 2008 recession, covid fall etc.
There is dawn after every dusk.
Observe, Learn and Invest.

Thank you 🙏

@Jetha Lal ji,
Perfectly said. I fully agree with you. The 1st one is extremely important - "Don't average weak/risky/mistake stocks" and I too have been badly bruised for not following that principle. But now I have become quite mature enough and not committing that mistake, but in some popular stocks, where Iam expecting some turnaround,I invest cautiously.

Indian currency at all time low
Acche din aagaye hai.

Grow up

@jethalal ji
The stock has been range bound for last few days. Strong support near 770 and strong resistance around 790. Maybe it's time for either side swing with upside potential mostly given almost the free float has been absorbed. Your take on this sir ji?

@AmateurInvestor ji
I have very limited knowledge of trading so I can't comment much on its support and resistance. Fundamentally I can say that it is wonderful business with immense growth potential and currently downside is limited because of very low free float.

Second phase of growth in chemical sector is going to happen because of China+1 strategy and import substitution. I am pretty Bullish on this segment for longer time frame. Cleaner and greener chemical companies have longer and bright future ahead.
At present Clean Science is my preferred bet because of its valuation moderation. Fundamental is intact and valuation has come down so I would like to accumulate that business.

Thank you 🙏

@ jethalal ji
Thanks for your insight and another pick in clean science.

@jethalal ji @ipobull
Your top 5 stocks from Nifty 50?

If I have to pick 5 stocks out of Nifty50 then my current top 5 picks are:
1. Reliance
2. ICICI Bank
3. Bajaj Finance
4. Airtel
5. TAMO/M&M

@Divya,
I do not focus on Nifty 50. I look at good quality midcaps to make better % age gains. Because moving an Nifty 50 elephant like Reliance is very difficult. It requires huge money, particularly from FIIs.

I think its high time that jethalal ji to start his own forum. Jokes aside, Thank you for your constant updates on the forum during this dry IPO run.

UjwalG Ji,
Thank you for appreciation ☺️🙏

Kabhi kabhi apneko lagtai Jethalalji he Aniket Sir hai....🤔

Shreyas Ji
It's like very big compliment for me that I resemble to Aniket sir w.r.t my contribution. It makes me feel that I am contributing positively and forum members are getting benefits at large.
I can assure you with my full consciousness that I am not Aniket sir.
I am also an admirer of Aniket sir and it makes me feel equally disappointed that he left this forum.
Aniket sir is very experienced and knowledgeable person and myself too learnt a lot from him and I feel he had made impact on me too to learn, grow and contribute on this forum. I wish he comes back.

Thank you 🙏

A wonderful article from Financial Express to understand impact of Blinkit acquisition by Zomato.

With Blinkit in its fold, Zomato has tough task ahead in e-grocery space:

The much-awaited acquisition of quick commerce (qCommerce) start-up Blinkit by Zomato was eventually announced last week, which saw the former lose around 40% of its valuation. Blinkit has been playing catch-up with its bigger rival BigBasket for some time now. After operating as a grocery marketplace for nearly three years until 2017 — the business model involved aggregation of inventory directly from stores and supermarkets — Blinkit pivoted towards an inventory-led play and scaled down its marketplace operations after careful planning.

In contrast, BigBasket adopted a full-fledged inventory-led model prior to Blinkit, and by 2018 it even claimed to have doubled its margins to reach 18% per order, according to a media report. Blinkit’s pivot towards a larger inventory model did not start until a funding crunch hit the grocery segment. In 2016, the company, formerly called Grofers, had to shut down operations in nine cities to conserve cash. By 2018, it started to invest heavily in its private labels and warehouses, which eventually helped improve economics and enabled it to raise more funding from existing investors like SoftBank. By 2021, Blinkit began moving towards a more structured pivot into the qCommerce space.

However, between the last funding round in June 2021 and the acquisition this month, qCommerce start-ups witnessed multiple hiccups and drawdowns in their execution. Although there is a large enough total addressable market (TAM) for q-commerce, it is still unclear as to whether there is a market opportunity for all major players to co-exist. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly clear that consumers wouldn’t try out qCommerce without discounts or subsidised delivery charges, which according to analysts raised huge questions marks on the sustainability of the model.

“In a consumer survey we did recently, we found that about 80% of the consumers who actually used quick commerce were only triggered by the zero delivery offers or due to steep discounts using vouchers and card and bank offers. Given this consumer behaviour, it’s going to be difficult for a business model to survive for long in the Indian context,” said Viswanath P, strategy and transformation specialist at Grant Thornton.

According to Zomato’s shareholder’s letter, as of May, Blinkit had an average order value (AoV) of around Rs 509 across 7.9 million orders. The average customer frequency stood at around 3.50 per month. Despite this, Blinkit reported a loss of around Rs 66.1 crore in May 2022 over revenues of Rs 58 crore. But Deepinder Goyal, CEO and co-founder and Zomato said in the shareholder’s letter that he expects AOVs in quick commerce to be higher than food delivery in near future. He also pointed out other opportunities where Blinkit could monetise better.“…I would argue that ad sales revenue in quick commerce would be higher than food delivery, given the much larger digital ad spend budgets of consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. And thirdly, the last-mile delivery cost will be lower than food delivery given the shorter delivery time, leading to a higher number of orders delivered per hour,” Goyal said.

However, Zomato’s bet on maintaining shorter delivery times to keep down delivery costs has irked a few analysts, who point out that even a small deviation from the 10-15 minute delivery promise would hurt unit economics considerably. An average delivery person typically expects to earn anywhere from `500-700 a day from platform work, and to sustain that kind of earnings he or she should be doing at least 50 deliveries a day, according to Viswanath of Grant Thornton.

“Managing delivery costs is very critical in making this model viable. A delivery partner expects a minimum earning of `500-700 / day. If he manages to make 40 deliveries the cost per delivery comes to around `13-17. On a percentage basis this itself account for ~40% of the margin earned by quick commerce players on a typical `300 ticket purchase,” Viswanath said. Another concern pointed out by analysts is Zomato’s dependence on ad revenue to supplement Blinkit’s overall income.

Aditya Kondawar, partner & vice president, Complete Circle Capital, said the promise of ad monetisation as a supplementary revenue could diminish if Blinkit loses any active or (transacting) customer base which currently stands just around 2.3 million as of May. “If Zomato or Blinkit decrease their discounts and subsidies for users in the near future, it is likely that user funnel gets impacted, and then it will obviously impact the ad revenue. Ad publishers usually look at demand, frequency, and other user metrics to bid for ads, and hence Zomato must ensure that Blinkit does not lose significant active user base,” he added.

@Jetha Lal ji.
Thank you very much for your kind response and guidance.
🙏🙏🙏

@Jetha Lal ji,
Thanks for putting out the article

REC declared bonus 1:3.. already Rs4.8 divided declared earlier.. should be good one.. but it already moved 10% from it's recent low..

GST council defers 28% tax on online gaming, casinos and horse racing.

Delta corp is under pressure due to uncertainties related to regulation and taxation wrt Casino and Online gaming (game of skills).
It's subsidiary which is into online cards game(game of skills) i.e Adda 52 which has also filed DHRP for IPO.
Till now 18% GST is charged on game of skills and on platform fees charged by such players but now it is proposed that 28% would be charged on whole amount paid by person and this cover casino or game of chance (lottery) or game of skills (card games or dream11).
If this happens then it will be devastating for online gaming space and major headwind in exponentially growing sector.

In such scenario Nazara is most prudent and diversified company. It has mere 5% revenue from game of skills. E-sports (Nodwin & Sportskeeda) contributes major revenue and followed by gamified learning (kiddopia), telco, freemium (WCC) and real money gaming.

It seems Zomato stock price has linked itself with price of Tomato.

Just kidding 😜😂🤣

Fii pump and then dump and retailers slump.

@Cautious ProPrio,
Zomato will not go to such levels. Do not be so pessimistic. Its still has got tremendous brand value. I will buy it @ 52 levels.

Lock in period for aether is ending on 29th june. Kindly suggest impact this on aether.
I may hold or sold tomorrow.

Hold aether for 5 years and see massive gains.

There won't be major impact of 50% supply of Anchor book as for rest 50% anchor lock-in is 90 days.

Anchor investors hold mere 3% of company out of which 1.5% is allowed to be supplied. Out of this 1.5% of Aether SBI MF, Ashoka India, IIFL hold 0.5% of Aether who are also Pre-Ipo investors so most probably they won't supply any share(though they are free to do that) and Goldman Sachs & Nomura together hold 0.3% out of 1.5% which are also most probably not going to exit.

Together all 5 holds 0.8% out of 1.5% and if rest 0.7% of the company also come to supply then most probably all will be absorbed by fund houses like SBI(it has a lot of interest in this company, currently holds more than 5%).

Thank you 🙏

@jethalal aap apna portfolio share karoge tabhi forum me shanti ayegi nhi to kuch na kuch poochte hi rahnge sab 😄😊😘

💋

Gulsan Ji,
Mujhe apna portfolio share karne me koi pareshani nhi hai par log usse blind copy karenge.
Two people can be either in profit or loss in same stock depending upon at which price they accumulated.
Imitation of stocks can be injurious for portfolio:)
The purpose of this forum is to discuss and enhance our knowledge so in my spare time I like to research and share my learning with fellow members if asked.

@Avenue,
Hope you are doing well 😊
And I hope the same for MRavi sir, Lokes Ji and Noorul Ji.

Thank you 🙏

Any information on new IPOs? There is total drought of IPOs. @ hchc where are you?

Fii not interested in ipo and they recovered their losses by dumping the whole market lol.

No signs of slowdown or recessions.. downside seems to be limited...market will rebound slowly...

@Jetha Lal ji,
Your views on Zomato after its deal with Blinkit (formerly Grofers) ? Is it likely to go go triple figures within six months?

Stop investing in loss making companies be mature invest only in profit making companies.

@Jetha Lal ji,
Thank you very much for giving time and replying to my query.

@ipobull ji,
You asked my opinion and analysis about few companies.
1. Delta Corp : This company has monopoly in casino business in india and it can be seen everywhere in Goa. Casino is very high margin business and always profitable for casino house. It is into hospitality business too. It is into online skill gaming (add52) but this business is hived off and separate IPO is coming for this company. There are alot of regulatory uncertainty w.r.t taxation and different states restrictions (like TN banned it). Currently RJ offloaded big stake and this has created massive pressure on stock price. In inflationary and recession period I don't see this business to do very well but this is interesting company and currently available at decent price.
If you ask my personal opinion than I like Nazara most in gaming space because of Nodwin & E-sports. E-sports is going to be second most popular sports in india after cricket in future and Nodwin (subsidiary of Nazara) is leader in this segment.

2. Devyani: It's a wonderful Company to ride India's growth and consumption story. It has very efficient and proven promoter i.e RJ corp(Varun beverages). It has edge over sapphire because it has business in mostly Northern and Southern states where meat consumption is higher(KFC) and ~60% of revenue comes from KFC. I like this company most in QSR space.

3. Easy trip: It's India's second largest online tour& travel company and only profitable company. Aviation and tourism sector bound to grow in india in future. I have personally used services of this company and I can say that it's really doing good. It has very high margin ( ~50%) and asset light model so it's an interesting proxy company to bet on tourism sector in india.

4. Adani power: I haven't studied this company because it's very capital inventive business and it is not has very clear plans for renewal business like Tata power.

5. Adani Wilmar and Ruchi Soya: They both are dominant players in edible oil market and they both are really doing well. AWL is pushing more online sales and diversifying into other food products like Rice, Aata, Besan, Soya etc to enhance margin. Ruchi Soya acquisition of patanjali business at very cheap valuation will definitely help it to diversify into other segment. I like both businesses.

6. Nykaa: Nykaa has created itself as synonyms of online beauty products sale. Falguni nayar has created wonderful business model and this company is far ahead of its competitors in beauty segment. This company is only profitable business among all recent listed start-up peers. Nykaa is aggressively diversifying itself into more offline stores and in men grooming segment and fashion segment. It is doing well in all segment. It is has not breached its IPO price in such deep correction and it proves institution faith in this company.

@German Ji
✓ Clean science: The only reason for fall was steep valuation together with ruthless massacre in mid & small cap stocks. Stock is fundamentally strong and best among speciality chemical industry. Revenue will grow at decent 20-30% CAGR and margin will sustain around 40%. The best thing is that it is into clean & green chemistry so future is very bright. After recent correction it looks attractive now.
✓ Hindustan Cooper: I prefer to stay away from PSU stocks and I have no view on this stock.

@Prasen IPO ji,

✓ Anupam Rasayan: This is a good speciality chemical company mainly focused in Agrochemical and Agrochemical sector is growing really well in india currently. Chinese market is shifting towards india and Anupam will be beneficiary of it.

✓ Daawat/LT food : I haven't studied this stock deeply so no view.

✓SBI Cards: I think all negative & pain are over in this stock. Carlyle was major bottleneck for this stock to not let stock price to rise. Thankfully Carlyle took complete exit. Fundamental of business is very strong and SBI bank branch network will be growth drivers for it make next leg of growth. Due to SBI association and it's own credit rating it can raise cheap fund and maintain margin and can further grow market share. Market anticipated BNPL as its major competitor but it won't able to affect much credit card business because till when one will keep on burning cash and at the end one has to show profitability and there all conventional CC have huge branch network and cheap source of fund to lend.
This market is massively underpenetraded and as India's consumption will grow further these CC will be major beneficiary.

✓ Biocon : I like its subsidiary Syngene more than Biocon. It's advisable to switch to Syngene from Biocon.

✓ Tata Power: It is really doing well in renewable energy vertical and charging station for EVs. This segment of TPL excite me a lot. It is going well as per plans and if in future it hives off its renewal business then I would love to be part of that business.

Thank you 🙏

Thank you Jethalal ji for your valuable viewpoint

@ipo share ji
https://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/aether-industries-ltd/aether/543534/shareholding-pattern/

This is the link to check Shareholding pattern of Aether industries.

Thanks Jetha Lal ji 🙏🙏

another round of 75 basis point rate hike on the cards in july by fed

Globally all central bankers pumped / printed currencies by quantitive easing. now post pandemic, supply chain disruptions coupled with geo-political tensions lead to hyper inflation. Central bankers can manage through monetary policies and what ever tools they have, simultaneously government also need to address supply chain disruptions as it is more supply constraint inflation, not demand driven inflation

Artificial inflation created by Central Banks and corrupt governments.

it seems to be yesterday's bounce is more of dead cat bounce. pain likely to continue for some more time. time to grab beaten down stocks with visible earnings prospects.

Please suggest some fundamentally good stocks, which have come down to a level where buying can be done.

please list out time horizon and amount of risk appetite

Hello everyone,
Hope you all doing well and grabbing quality businesses at given opportunity.

I was busy in other things so I couldn't able to be active here. Forgiveness for delay 🙏

@ipobull ji,
@iposhare ji,

✓ I am pretty upbeat on Campus for medium to long term view. Whole footwear sector will grow well in long run. Relaxo and Campus will have proactive growth.
Campus has ample growth to grow market share in semi premium sports shoes market (1500-2500 range shoes) and it can eat market share of some laggard players like Reebok, Fila etc. It has plan to enter into sneaker segment too and it has already brand recognition so it can easily grow in this segment too.
It has doing very well in B2C online sale and the market where it doesn't have stronghold like Southern market there it is penetrating through online channel rather offline channel which is time and resource consuming and this strategy is working for campus.
The company has already entered into long term contract with its supplier so inflationary shock has already been managed but it has some debt and working capital blockage due to this.
Overall this is good growth story and I think it will do well in medium to long run.

✓One sector which is inflation and recession proof is Hospital & Healthcare sector. Rainbow is niche player(Obstetrics &Pediatrics) and it has good brand name and trust in its market (Telugu states).
It had grown at +20% CAGR in last 5-7 years and it plans to add 1000 beds in next 5 years where 75% will be in home market from currently 1500 beds. It's very easy to grow in home market because brand name and trust are already created.
As an investor we have to choose best stock among all so I have better choices over Rainbow and in my opinion KIMS, Narayana looks better among all hospital stocks followed by Healthcare global and Rainbow.
In last few quarters where every other sectors are facing margin pressure there hospital stocks are either maintaining or expanding margin through operating leverage.
Healthcare is non discretionary sector and it has almost zero impact of inflation and recession. This is best sector to accumulate in current scenario.

Thank you 🙏

sir , what about aether industries , at current prices to hold for long term or sale and re-entry possible at lower rates

@Jigyasu,
I am not expecting any huge run up in Aether Ind. in short term. Do not see any much of a downside even. But, it is a safe bet. You can take it at around 735-755 levels. Just track the look-in end date of anchor book viz. 30th June.