SKS Microfinance Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 4)

@ silent one

i have not invested in fd but broken my fd to invest in gold bars

its a myth that gold etfs are save....you have been fed that to your head by experts and fund mabagers marketing to you thtu newspapers and tv and stuff

tell me if timmorow there is huge crash will not thse etfs have liquidity issues and face redemption.......physical gold is the safest i can sell whenever i ike to any gold trader at prices more than etf.....

@SJ:

I read that you have hedged money by investing in FD's(private bank/NBFCs?)... what kind of rates(12%?) and time periods (3 years?) have you invested.I ask coz I wonder if a downturn comes in 2011 wont the FD rates be lowered...

Did you invest in gold bars (with yearly holding fees) instead of Gold ETF because you plan to use the gold for jewelry or physical transactions?...

Some of the analysts on TV seem to be like the Mazhar Majeed's of the stockmarket.

*~Catch a fish for a man and he is fed for a day. Teach a man to fish and he is fed for life. (Chinese Proverb)~*

DEAR SHREEDHAR

I just gave a 10 page macro trends research report carried out by me to some of my knowledgeble HNI clients and advicing retail to trim their portfolios and speculative positions the summary of which i have already posted.

The facts are dead ahead....right in front of my eyes.

People talk about V shaped recovery....

Well we have not made the bottom of the V yet in 2008. That was just a trailer to what's coming in the future.

And just like in 2008 when market was just correcting to 16000 in march 20008 these ass..8^&hole analysts came on TV that growth story of India is intact and this is just a bull market correction and we will go to greater highs...and this is a buying oppurtunities...these are not analysts on CNBC these are "BOOKIES" and "MONEY JUNKIES"....!!

This is my prediction and my intution based on facts i have mentioned:-------------

What I have read so far and what my past 8 years of experience says that when everyone (most of the analysts) talks about market correction or when most of the investors are already alert; market never goes for correction. People around you are cautioned, fearful and anticipating some kind of fall in the market (in general Sept & Oct months are infamous for market fall so such sentiments are common). We all know very well that market never does what most of the analysts or market participants expects.

My personal opinion is, there might be minor fall of 3-5% in market in next few weeks followed by bounce back to the levels (probably Nifty 5800-5900) when most of the investors/traders start talking about further move upward & that is the time when market is more likely to correct because investor's confidence will be at peak. One can expect the correction around Mar-Apr 2011.

This is the graph i follow religiously and i think shreedhar you should google and take a look at:

Princeton Economics. Martin Armstrong discovered the 8.6 year PI Economic Confidence Model that has predicted many Economic Confidence crisis.

The 8.6 year PI Economic Confidence cycle is expected to bottom in June 2011 and 2020. Notice how well it predicted the bottom in 2002 and the top in 2007 on a year basis. The graphic shows that the model is predicting a top in 2010 before heading down into a long-term low in June 2011. This is economic confidence model and as you all know stock market is 4-6 months ahead of the real economy so one can expect market to top by March-Apr 2011.

Long term Lows in April 2011...before 2020 means bigger Drop for Dow than in 2008 or 2009. May be India may go to 12000 only this time...coz most FIIs are waiting to park funds.

The above cycle called a global top in early January 2005, the US stock market bottom in late 2002, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 peak in 2000, the low in gold in mid 1999, the Russia/Brazil/ LTCM crises in mid 1998, the Asian crisis bottom in 1997, a very good buy point in US stocks in early 1994 as the hottest part of the move started, and the global peak in late 1989 when Japan and various other financial items peaked.

So Shreedhar i feel market will bottom out by april 2011 and economy by june 2011 bcoz market always bottoms out before economy or tops out before economy.

I have parked my Bank FDs and My Bank Surplus deposits into Gold Bars since May 2009 for which i pay 10% fee for storage every year...Although i am sitting on 50% returns my view is Gold will touch 2000 dollars and ounce by june 2011 and 5000 dollars and ounce by 2015.
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DISCLAMER: These are my personal views. I may be wrong in timing or error of projections and people are adviced to do their own research. I also do not intend to influence any one and hence should not be held responsible if someone takes decisions based on my research and misses oppurtunities.

Dear Boarders

I am a long term bull on India.

But i am a cautiously optimistic bull.

Seeing my father who is a broker since 1987 loose heavily during Harshad Mehta period. I have learnt one thing that one should always buy in crashes and not in bull runs.

That oppurtunity came in 2001 after 911 attacks

In 2004 after BJP lost elections and market went down double circuit

In 2008 and 2009 sub prime crisis which is still underway.

I am now researching stocks to build my next portfolio to prepare for buying in the crash of 2010.

While many people will be suprised by this post and call me a "Lunatic" i have been studying various trends that tell me the crash is dead ahead and we are not realising it..

I am not telling you this because market is correcting since last few days but this is my position from beginning of 2010.

"BY THE TIME WE REALIZE THAT IT IS NEW YEAR 2011...WE WILL ENTER THE GREAT DEPRESSION THAT HAD STARTED FROM DEC 2010 IN THE DEVELOPED ECONOMIES"

Some facts:

1) Unemployement rate in the US has been constantly rising to 9% plus infact the unemployment rate is close to 16% currently coz it does not include the no. of people that have stopped looking fo jobs or who live in social security or food stamps blanket.

2) Sub prime mortgage loans are due for another write-off by banks in october 2010 after they had written off bad sub prime in 2008.

3) House prices in US are forming new lows.

4) The US Debt due to stimulus is now 3 times its GDP considering unfunded liabilites like social security and healthcare. Total US Debt ha balloned to 30 trillion dollars.

5) Derivatives are hugely leveraged all around the world. You may not imagine but total derivative position around the world by institutuions is now as per calculable estimates 140 trillion dollars.

6)The US Bond market is a bubble coz 90% of US debt is bought by China India Russia and other countries. When they stop buying the bond market will collapse. In fact bond yields are below 2.5% and whenever that happens huge corrections are expected.

7)The stimulus has expired in august and GDP is likely to go down to 1% or lower. Their are ALT A and Options ARMs that are bigger than sub prime mortgage loans that will go bad in 2011 first half. In fact sub prime is just a tip of the iceberg.

8)The EUROZONE did not bail ou Greece but bailed out German and French banks that have huge bets of credit swaps of Greece spain portugal italy and other european countries. None of these Governments have plan for austerity measures to reduce deficits so their is likely to be major bank failures in European Banks soon and more country defaults in EUROZONE.

9) The value of the dollar will depriciate upto 40% by 2012 in a whisker when there will be no more money left for FED to print as no one will buy US Government Bonds any more.

10)Since the last 20 years United States has been fuelled by Kenesiyan Economics of boosting consumer spending and printing money to get out of recessions. This has led to bankruptcy of US consumers and High debt of US Government. America today builds nothing has no producing industry and no exports.It just imports and boosts consumers who are 70% of total GDP.The only difference between US and Greece is that greece is small and US is big....the debt situtaion is as alarming in US as in Greece.

Some people talk about DOW at 5000 some people talk about dollar depriciating by 40%...some people talk about Gold going to 2000$ and ounce.

I would like to stop buying sell 2/3rds of my portfolio and prepare for the next crash to buy.

One more point for deep thought:

"In 1930s when the Great Depression was underway the US had budget surplus and US was a Manufacturing economy. Now it has public debt of 3 times GDP and is 70% Consumer Based Economy."

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DISCLAMER: These are my personal views. I may be wrong in timing or error of projections and people are adviced to do their own research. I also do not intend to influence any one and hence should not be held responsible if someone takes decisions based on my research and misses oppurtunities.

Dear all,

Who ever is not invested in SKS invest now, it is going to touch Rs.2000 very soon. This is based on the growth potential co. has got going forward. The micro finance is one of the field which would support the small scall industries and which would slowly become mid size cos. Hence invest as much as possible in SKS and make money within a 9 to 12 months time.

Hi SJ

I am following your comments right from the day the SKS public issue was to open. I have gone through your detailed reasoning for a higher price and convinced about the same. Hence, not only i held my two public lots off 36 each and also added another 100 at 1178/-. Today, I sold one lot of 36 at 1280/-. I am in market for more than 2 decades. But your logical reasoning for such a higher price is excellent. keep up your good work for the benefit of all fellow boarders. A big thanks once again. Keep it up!

kind regards

murali

@ Singh

Well SE Investments is a fundamentally good stock with good prospects but is manipulated by operators....

Every time some corporate announcement happens correction sets in this stock...

I have seen this stock from 125 when i bought it ....it is now 950 as per current level and made high of 1400 i.e. Rs. 70

Well another reason was that after forming a base at 50 ....bcoz SKS announced IPO...many people brokerage houses ....started comparing SKS with SE...for valuation....

So operators started taking it uo...people started entering at 60 levels and then operator started selling it at 70 before SKS listing coz they knew that people will get greedy and not sell it 70 and wait for SKS listing...

Now since retail has sold....

It is forming a base at these levels...

Its recent lows were 46-48 range.....

So margin of safety in investing at current levels....at least starting to buy is good....for medium or long term....

Speaking about targets...

Well as per management guidance it will do 200 crores plus revenue by march 2011...currently its revenues are 80 crores...

That means its sales will increase more than two times..

its eps for june quarter was 0.85...per share ....which was 40% increase from last quarter....now at same growth arte it is expected to report at least an EPS of 4 considering conservative estimates...so giving it t least PE of 20 since it is small cap and in high growth sector when SKS PE is 35....it can easily go to 100 rupees per share from current levels or Rs 50 after stock split from 2 to 1 face value (that is same thing as 100 according to current face value)

So one can start buying at current levels and in further corrections upto 45...coz agm is on 6th when they will announce split date....and also change name to SE microfin

rumors are also there that it may demerge its other businesses like power and business loans and just focus on microfinance going forward...

So from now on downside is limited coz this stock has its own movement....it goes down even when market goes up..it goes buying freeze and not correct if market corrects..you can never guess that....

it will start moving up now upto 6th gradulally and catch fire after that till record date...of split...

I hope i answered your queries

Regards

Setu

Hi Milinds

How are you

Well it not bad to dom short term trading..by taking delivery to your capacity...its bad to day trade though...

Even i do short term trading..not in SKS...but in F&O....

Well congrats to you for your profits....

You can buy it back again at 1185 coz there was bulk dealm at that levels...

It is forming higher bottom higher top....so its uptrend is intact....until and unless a crash happens...correcions wil not affect this stock....coz FIIs have no liquidity cris befor financial crash....

It has supports at 1085 1125 1152 and 1184

Next resistance at 1250 and 1310....if 1310 croses target is 1350 and 1430

Enjoy

I m new to this forum .. but in the stock market for past 6 yrs...
I liked the posts by SJ, Ravi Blore, Rajasthan..
Good work guys.. keep helping each other...

Hi SJ,
Exited from SKS completely.
By nature i am short term investor, enjoying lot of profits.
i will enter once again if it corrects
Thanks once again.
milinds

Hi Setu

I am Holding 1 lot of SKS and planning to hold this for long term. Heard your conversation about SE Investment and pretty excited about it. I started tracking this company after hearing from you people and noticed that it started falling after announcement for split.not sure why.
what time frame can we expect SE investment to get to the level from which it fell?

No KK dear

Ha ha ha ha

no jumping...

Aisa hota to roz jump karunga.

I dont count money

I just enjoy the success of a good trade call or good stock pick.

I have enough money build up to worry about survival.

Additional money comes and goes doesnt matter.

However i am always worried about my brokerage income....coz that is hard earned money by advising clients and that is permanent money for me.

Well there was a bulk deal today that's why it went up..
selling pressure is good coz more hnis are selling now and institutions are buying..

@ SILENT ONE

bOSS 6TH SEPTEMBER KO AGM HAI AUR us din right date announce hoga
so hold then it will move up...as it has always done after bonus and right anouncement

Have patience.....your patience till now wil be rewarded soon

Dear SJ,
You must be jumping with joy today as SKS, for which you are the flag bearer, touched 1300 today. But then why did it retreat to that extent? Selling pressure from those who waited for the range around 1250?

@sj: SKS is soaring.. SE is being kept at 48

as told yesterday...1299 new high made ..... now the turn of bajaj corp... 775 possible today or tomorrow

boarders

SKS crosses 1250

enjoy

I am able to see the alloted shares in sbicapsec. but am not able to sell the alloted shares in ipo. please tell me the procedure...

looking at the strength shown by this conter in relatively weak market,new highs are possible in the coming 1-2 days.... maybe 1250 to 1300

@ jkg

i take trading bets....and do not gamble blindly....

I also take positional trade in stock futures....in stocks as well....but i dont do day trading..

I want to take short sale bet on praksh coz i dont feel it is fundamentally justified valuation...........

There is a difference between trading and speculating or gambling...

Even rakesh jhunjunwala recently in an interview said that if he does not do trading then his spirit of investing will die.....

I am not a day trader....who just buys and sells seeing daily movement.....

@sj: do you trade in speculative counters like midfield prakash steelage?