HP Adhesives Limited IPO Message Board (Page 4)

@ NeoLongus Sir,

Respectfully,, please - need your kind opinion on hp adhesives ipo.

Thanks in advance.

@Neolongus Thanks.Missing your reviews these days.What is your thought on both listing gain and long term view of supriya and cms info systems?

Sure Ronnie - Briefly, both Supriya and CMS are excellent buys at the offered price and I would apply as Retail and/or HNI in both (funds permitting and if HNI x is not obscene). Supriya has an evergreen business model (I burnt my hands in GLS but I still feel good about Supriya) but CMS has significant concerns around its long term sustainability due to electronic payments etc even though existing business is a cash cow (cash circulation will not disappear in a hurry from India or even the western world). Will certainly try to share a more detailed perspective but have a busy weekend. As always, this opinion is only from a long term holding perspective and I reserve the right to be wrong! Keep minting!

At the last moment, I withdraw my application last time. this will also go on negative Coz No QIB interest & talk abt HNI they buy to book the profit only without any sentimental they book the loos or profit. so all relailer best of Luck

The reason for high retail subscription is, all money by HNI is gone in other IPOs and thus even HNI''s are applying in retail category as funds are limited with them.

The retail money floating for IPO is, for Bad IPOs(expecting discount listing) 500 Cr, Average IPO 2000 Cr and for Good IPOs (Famous ones with 100% GMP) 6000 Cr. Here in this case the allocation for retail is 12 Cr. You can now judge how many times it might oversubscribe.

With the present figures of QIB and HNI, is it safe to say that HNI''s who are short of funds have applied in Retail category?

Due to account issue, missed to apply this IPO

The Crow Verdict: Personally, I don''t have much faith in the sealants and adhesives business. It''s the same outlook I have for real estate. That is why after studying Pidilite Industries for 2 months in the hope to accumulate it for my long-term portfolio I dropped it completely. That is when HP Adhesives arrives with this small issue with a business model that hopes to compete with the 65%+ market share of Pidilite. I am not against value companies, mind you, but I have zero confidence in HP, its business model, or its valuation in this highly competitive industry where brand matters.

A critical thing to note here is that you cannot compare HP to a mammoth industry leader like Pidilite. Fevicol MR, Dr Fixit, M-Seal are household names today because of Pidilite''s aggressive marketing and king-like presence. But for the benefit of doubt, HP started way back in 1987 as a scattered partnership, then incorporated in 2019, and finally turned public limited in July this year. All of this increases my anxiety regarding this issue where I am asked to put my hard-earned money. So I have to double-verify and give more heed to my own speculation.

Retail is already 55%+ (not saying much as retail is 10% in this very small issue where anchor mopped up ~30%) so I don''t think retailers need any advise. But, being a tadpole in a pond that has Pidilite as frog, the T2T listing, a measly post-IPO mcap of 500 crore (Sonal and Nikhil are at 5 and 300 crore resp.; Pidilite at 1.2 lakh crore), flat asking price, and overall negative sentiment on Chittorgarh (keep in mind the 1 Avoid rating) all compel me to avoid this issue.

Had it not been T2T, I would have considered subscription ratings to make a decision. But I don''t want to take the chance here as if I get allotment, and it goes LC, I will be stuck like a fixture joined using the very sealant that HP produces. The 90% fresh issue should make me happy but it isn''t. This is no Sigachi or Paras or Latent. Small issues without GMP can be dangerous. Avoid.

Red flags - 6 out of 11. Keep crowing!

To each, her own. But, loved your write-up, Crow. "Stuck like a fixture joined using the very sealant that HP produces" takes the cake in my books. :-)
And yes, if you blog, please share the link. Would be a fantastic read!

Thanks for the support everyone. QIB and total subscription didn''t cross 30x, so red flags are 8 out of 13. A wicked subscription I would say. Might surprise on listing.

@J K SINGH, apologies. Some issues are harder to explain but I will try to be concise from now on.

@colcol, T2T listing means Trade to Trade. It''s a type of listing on BSE/NSE where you cannot square off or day trade on the counter. You have to mandatorily engage in delivery. This is to prevent speculation and is mostly related to small issues like this. Even Sigachi, Exxaro Tiles, etc. listed as T2T. Read up more on Chittorgarh. The problem with this you cannot exit if the scrip goes south.

@RAJESH, at 300 I would lap it up, trust me. But at 2,000+, it is expensive for me especially in a situation where I don''t like the business.

I do have a blog guys but since I am anonymous here I would like to keep it that way. Let''s make money together safely.

People got money released from CE, but haven''t applied in this IPO. HNI community is giving a skip to this. QIB is still worse. Retail as usual jumped in for listing gains. Lets see the verdict on listing day. Happy Weekend folks.

Unusual oversubscription
this may surprise on listing either side upwards or downwards

Who will buy on listing?
Not QIBs.
Not RIIs.
May not even NIIs.

Hence, chances of premium listing are therefore very less.

However, I have applied to keep for long-term.

Operators can take this to any direction. Very easy to pump and dump as free float is very less.

QIB has very low Subscription even though this was very small IPO. Retail almost 80x..

%age wise subscription - RETAILERS CHHA GAYE. SAB KO PEECHHE CHHOD DIYA.

Dear Chittorgarh Team,
There is more clarity if one more column of reserved % quota will add with subscription figure.
Category      Subscription (times)

QIB       Reserved Quota 1.01
NII       % 9.54
Retail       % 72.19
Total       % 16.28

Now even after 3 pm QIB and NII figures not improved, it means HP is not good for subscription. Retailers in hurry to capture but looking into Rate Gain listing wherein QIB and NII subscribed more than retailers at 15% discount is really a cause of concern.

IPO is already successful from the perspective of issuers as all the categories are fully subscribed at the asked valuations.

Retail oversubscription can be misleading as the quota is only 20% and also very high % of retailers may not accept the UPI mandate.

Decide for you judiciously.

Quota of retail is only 10 percent

so much confusion after seen this Subscription detail...
Not sure should i cancel or continue with it...
Experts kindly help

Why QIB not interested of this IPO?? What is the reason...

looks like QIB''s are also avoiding it due to no GMP 😉😂

@SatishKumarIPO,
Its in T2T category, normally QIB/NII not much interest (unless great value), my thoughts.

Thanks

What "Singhania G" says on this :-
After seeing fundamentals it''s just came in profit in last year. Though business is good but this co. is fighting with a giant Pedilite which is brand stablished name( we use fevicol word for good glue, m seal & Dr. fixit just like maggi).
One this is good for this co. is "if you aim the moon you may hit a star". So growth is there for long term.

For listing Gains : First of all i don''t think it can give 100% gain on listing as compare to Supriya. As Subscription also says that QIB is doing only their work of QUOTA not interested in buying this. NIIs are investing from their self funded. That means they also think not that much listing gain. Rest Retailers most of those thinks this is small ticket ipo will give surely returns, though in case of retail chances are too much high of not getting whereas in Supriya it will be best for Chances of allotment and listing gains prospective........

So for retailers who have limited fund should avoid as you have better option than this of getting listing gain & allotment chances too..........still have enough funds that will stay in bank then apply

I’m not applying as very small issue like SME platform of 125 crores n retail only 10% (9194 lots) so 1-2% chances of allotment, no grey activity, no growth in revenue or PAT, in such products brand matters so not looking good although it may give listing gain but operator game may also happen. It may go either side in circuit filter after listing.
So I’m not interested.
I’ll apply Supriya Life

Pros - Small size IPO. Will be operators play for sure. So one, if allotted, can exist during initial hours with profit.

Cons: RII may cross 60X. So we little chance to get.

Very overvalued.
With a paltry 500 Crores Market Cap this stock will be at the mercy of Operators.

Only compulsive IPO Addicts must apply... because their addiction doesn''t leave them with a choice!

Yes Sir Risk can be taken & i have also applied my all 14 applns. in retail.

All the best to you @PSR !

Hero or Zero we won''t know right now, but one thing is sure..
This company will hit Circuit, either Upper or Lower (or both on different days) !
We will know that after listing

Due to 2 days bank strike and back to back ipos so full force subscribed nahi hoga..

@Crow, waiting eagerly for your Research and analysis for this confusing IPO.