Aqua Logistics Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 6)

what is the retail subscription till now?

we have to apply as 230 rs. not 225.other 5 rs. company will refund to us.so apply as 230 rs.

Please help me whether ano can apply in retai catagory at cut off price and paid RS.230-5 (Retail Discount) = 225 or not.

Must apply in Aqua logistics and Syncom healthcare....

aqua logistics is logically read about the company. taking both pro n cons of the company it is launched in the market. in the long range it is advisable to buy. hellow everyone if u miss this opportunity, u may repent. buy and make profits

FII 0 AND HNI 0 SO WAIT AND SEE ON 27TH IF OVERSUBSCRIBED THAN APPLY OTHERWISE AVOID

THIS IPO IS GIVING RS. 5 DISCOUNT TO RETAILS. GREY MARKET PREMIUM IS 10/-. NOW WE SHOULD APPLY IN THIS BECAUSE A PREMIUM OF RS 15/- (10+5) GIVEN CURRENT MARKET CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS PREMIUM WILL INCREASE AFTER ISSUE CLOSES. SEE JSW, COX, GODREJ, DB CORP, INFINITI, JUBILANT. EACH OF THESE WERE LESS SUBSCRIBED BUT AFTER CLOSURE , THE GREY MARKET PRICES ROCKETED LIKE ANY THING. APPLY FOR BIG GAINS

Subscribe Subscribe See Recent Past IPO Track Record that all Issues Oversubscribe on Last Day Onwards.Let See Kya Hota he Isme Bhi.

there is a discount of rs. 5 in this ipo. we sould definitely apply. attractively priced best among the current issues

Thanks ISR i think last day k din khel hoga kitna subscribe hota hai dekhte hai meine to 3 loat aplay kiya hai 2 account mein mila kar 1 account mein 1 lot & 2nd mein 2 lot dekhte hai kya hota hai aage

FIIs - 0, HNI - 0, Retail - 0.18 times.. till 5pm today

subscription of AQUA LOGISTICS ????????????????

Why is the site not showing today's subscription of AQUA LOGISTICS

Please tell about the Latest KOSTAK and ON Price of AQUA LOGISTICS

HI all,

Where are the anchor investors for this issue??


The quality of Anchor investors is an indication of the issue and its reception by biggies in the market.

Please let us know if this issue is not having Anchor investors please.

Aqua Logistics — IPO: Avoid







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Lack of presence in the logistics value chain and low global exposure could make the company's headway into third-party logistics services slow.



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Srividhya Sivakumar

Investors can consider giving the initial public offering of Aqua Logistics, an integrated logistics solutions provider, a miss. At the upper price band of Rs 220-230, the offer is priced at about 26 times the company's likely FY-10 per share earnings on a post-offer equity base. Though the high valuations, to a great extent, are a function of the 32 per cent dilution in equity base that this offer would result in, it still appears a tad pricey compared with some of the listed companies in this space.

The company's persisting negative cash flow from operations and its relatively poor margin performance are concerns. Investors looking for logistics sector exposure may be better off investing in existing listed companies, many of which enjoy stronger operations and business models.

Growth prospects

Having started as a freight forwarding company, Aqua Logistics has been attempting to evolve into a full-fledged 3PL logistics service provider. Though there's no denying the high-growth potential in this business, the company's ability to weather competition and gain a share in this business is as yet unproven. One indication is this: Though the company has broadened its service offerings to include contract logistics and projects, it still derives a chunk of its overall revenues (91 per cent in FY-09) from freight services only.

While the nascent demand for end-to-end logistics services could partly explain the high revenue dependence on freight services, this also suggests that the company's headway in the high-margin value-add services are likely to be slow.

Despite growing its revenues at enviable rates over the last three years, the company's performance at the operating and net profit margin levels somehow has not been as outstanding. Operating margin hovered at around 11 per cent levels, while net profit margins contracted from 6.5 per cent in FY-07 to 4.6 per cent in FY-09, suggesting a high dependence on volumes and little pricing power.

Given this background, the shift in focus towards contract logistics and projects would help improve margins. Even so, the extent of improvement may be capped given its relatively less-established brand presence in 3PL.

The company may have to price its services competitively to establish market presence especially since the 3PL market is relatively organised and has many established players such as AFL, Kuehne and Nagel and Reliance Logistics. But to its credit, it has over the years managed to get repeat orders from companies such as Ranbaxy, HCL Infosystems, ABB and BHEL.

The company also utilises the services of its associate and group companies for supply-chain consulting, last mile project execution, specialised transport and supply-chain IT. Its asset light model (peers own assets such as warehouses, trucks or rakes), while affording better flexibility in the selection of vendors, may, however, also restrict its ability to control costs.

Cash flows

Though Aqua has scaled double-digit growth rates in revenues and profits (on a low base), its cash flows from operations have continued to remain in the negative. In the last two financial years, the company's receivables position has shown strain. The significantly higher debtor days (about 102 days in FY09) as against creditor days (14 days) may also explain Aqua's strained cash flows.

However, given that the two years gone by had seen the worst of the credit crisis, improvement on this score with better trade undercurrents can be expected. Besides, the company's plan to infuse Rs 45 crore from the offer proceeds towards funding its working-capital requirements might also help.

Despite the testing business dynamics in the last two years, many of its listed peers (helped by PE funding, strong revenue model or relatively higher pricing power) did manage to keep cash flows positive.

Geojit PNB Paribas Financial Services:

Sales of the company increased by 96% to Rs 2,134 million for the fiscal ended March 2009 and net profit was higher by 75% to Rs 98.40 million. At the offer price band of Rs 220-230, the post issue equity capital of the company works out to 204.40 million at the lower price band and Rs 201.50 million at the upper price band. Consequently, the earnings at the lower price band was Rs 5.2 and at the upper price band it was Rs 5.3 for FY 2009. Resultantly, the P/E works out to 42.3-43.4 times on the offer price band of Rs 220-230. Comparatively, Arshiya International and Gateway Distripark are available at a PE of 18 times and 19.1 times their FY 2009 consolidated earnings. Even on first-half annualized earnings of Rs 9.1-9.2 a shar on post-IPO equity, ALL`s P/E works out to 24.2-25. The brokerage house has given a rating of 41/100 to the IPO.

KRChoksey:

The scrip is being offered in a price band of Rs 220-230, the P/E of the company at the lower price band of Rs 155 and based on earnings of 8.27 a share (2008-09 earnings) is estimated at 26.60 while at upper price band of 230 it is estimated at 27.81. In the industry the highest P/E is of Arshiya International at 89.30 and the lowest is of Aegis Logistics, 10.20. The company reported an income of Rs 2.14 billion and a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 98.40 million in FY`09. The company has initiated talks for acquiring a Hong Kong-based company, to help it deal with Chinese parties and intends to purchase specialised equipment needed for executing heavy project cargo as well as to become eligible to bid for large projects in verticals like power and heavy engineering, one of the major drawback of asset light business model. We would give a neutral view to the issue and will suggest subscribing with long term outlook.

S.P Tulsian, Independant Analyst :

This company is yet to prove itself and considering a gap required between secondary and primary market price, of about 15%, share does not deserve a valuation of over Rs. 200 a share. Hence, one may consider skipping it and go for listed peers like Gati, Allcargo or TCI. SMC:

Research house SMC has given a ranking of 2/5 on the IPO indicating a Neutral recommendation. The justifications provided are as under:

Aqua Logistics (ALL) an end-to-end logistics solutions provider which includes third-party logistics services, supply chain consulting and project logistics is constrained by lack of own assets like warehouses or trucks. The company operates in a highly competitive and unorganized industry environment with multiple players.
Moreover, PE of 27X annualized FY`10 earnings looks quite stretched when compared with the secondary market peers like All cargo, GDL, TCI.

Param Desai - Research Analyst, Angel Broking:

Aqua Logistic (ALL) is primarily engaged in freight forwarding services with agents to provide end-to-end solution to its clients. In order to extend its scope of services, the company ventured into the Project Cargo and Contract Logistic Segments in FY2007. The company has been on high growth trajectory since the last three years due to its low base. However, this may not be the case going forward especially in the MTO segment.

Nonetheless, we have assumed 50% earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY2009-12E on account of Margin expansion due to higher contribution from the Project Cargo and Contract Logistic Segment and overall improvement in the trade scenario. At the lower price band, the IPO is available at 13.4x FY2012E earnings, which is in line with Allcargo, but at a premium to GDL on our estimated FY2012E earnings. We believe ALL should trade at a discount to Allcargo and GDL given that these players have a proven track record, diversified portfolio of services and stronger balance sheets. Hence, we recommend an Avoid on the IPO.