Precision Camshafts Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 2)

Kab chalega ya ghatega? No market effect shows t''Day.kabhi bhi rs15 gir sakta hai,

With all the explanations provided in a lucid manner, you would have observed today, Bank of Baroda up by 22% for declaring the highest ever quarterly loss ! SBI too up.. most blue chips have hit the UC ! One has to remember markets know more than what we know, through data and analysis. All analysis is postmortem. Depending too much on that and expecting the future to behave in the classical way is futile. None forecast oil at 145$, neither at 26$. Therefore markets move ahead of us even before we can forecast it. By the time an investors enters a market after reconfirming it to be bullish on successive ups, he is actually in most times at the beginning of end! Same happens the in the reverse. That is why , when every one screams we are going to hit 10000 at 9000, we actually are staring at 6500. And when we are so bearish as now expecting to be at 6500, we will be at 8000.

Take it from me China slowdown is far overstated than what it is. If you were to read about this in Chinese news papers , you will have a different picture indeed.US did not burst in 2008. Greece the worst state is managing. Gold surge in late 1990s was not forecast, neither it''s dip. US in the world is largest debtor if one were to add all the forex reserves held by other countries! Did it collapse ? How would we explain today TATA steel going up by 10%? Steel price are still lowest in t he world. TISCO reported biggest loss and closing down two plants. Markets gives returns when one takes the chance before it happens not after analysis. So, if the investor really wants to look at long term investment returns of 10X to 50X, he has to have the conviction of investing in all cycles. One ahs to identify , those with market leadership, market share, technology leadership & cost leadership. Of course, this is to be backed up by management by good corporate governance. History has shown that those who succeeded in the markets and investments are not the one who did lots of analysis. In fact it is proved that, those investment managers & analysts have given only moderate returns as the information explosion and analysis also creates a fear psychosis.

Some of ur arguments are irrefutable: Foreseeing future rather than post-facto analysis is what''s required for making a great investment.. Couldn''t agree more.
I hate to fight ur optimism but still here r my 2 pennies worth: I already have tried to look through the murky crystal ball & already have formed a view on how future is going to look like- months before these current mood swings of Ms Market. I''m not doing post-facto analysis to devise a new investment strategy but just to validate the long formed picture which is not very high resolution & therefore needs reaffirmation every now & then....And just like u''ve mentioned, I''m trying to stick to my vision...It will take Ms Market to do more than the little dance she did today to entice me :)

Btw, some comments on why the markets rallied today:
1.      Indications from OPEC as well as non-OPEC producers to act in concert to curb the free fall of oil prices.
2.      Chinese Govt intervention in supporting Yuan at a slightly stronger level. This has allayed fears of sustained export of deflation by China.

Now, why this rally could be short-lived:
1.      Appreciation of Yuan & the ensuing rebound in Chinese as well as Japanese stock markets is not supported by the underlying economic situation- Chinese latest imports/exports data (Jan16) continues to reflect slowdown whereas Japan showed a 1.4% contraction in its economy as per the most recent data.
2.      Artificial reduction of oil prices through production cuts may encourage production of more expensive form of oil production & therefore may only solve the problem in the short term.

Why this rally could be permanent: Becayou wish for it!

I have noted to deepen my research around China encouraged by ur comment that it''s not as bad as we think it to be. But just so you know, even the ''foxy'' George Soros bets heavily against it! Whilst Soros is not a person I would normally subscribe to but Prem Watsa certainly is... the latter seems to be quite worried by the Chinese Real Estate situation.

Do not pick the shares at one go. If you wish to pick say 300 of HUL , buy about 20 at a time. Often investors average when the price falls and not when the price moves up. I have averaged when price move up and found it more rewarding as you have to sail through the upward momentum of the counter. However in this market one can buy at every 5 % downward or upward movement a foxed lot of blue chips.

Wish you all the best in investing..

great advice and some very good stock i like canfin homes headed by one of best banker Mr.C Ilango respect and has done great job

Good advice Ou Ai,

I like your point on "Do not pick the shares at one go". Thats the mistake I did. Its bcos someone say, its a good stock and give a target, i immediately jump with 100 stocks and sitting, watching to reach target. most times, it goes Southwards only.

But, in a fallling market, also if we keep on averaging, and if it keeps on going down, it might mean negtivity at the end right?

What is your suggestion on this?

Dear Shibajee, here is my suggestion. Suppose you pick up a good stock at price x, add more add same quantity at 0.9X if it moves southward. Add some more at another 10% fall. After that, if it falls more wait till it completes its downward cycle. If the stock is not a quality stock, it is unlikely to move up again giving you chance to come to no profit no loss status. If it is good mdi cap or front liner, it will begin uptrend and again begin adding.

On other hand after your first purchase , if it moves up, buy another lot at 1.1X, then 1.2 x...

The above assumes that,
1. You did some homework and are convinced of the stock.
2. You are a long term investor and will sell only when you need money for other reasons.
For eg, I mentioned canfin homes earlier. I picked it up at 95, 110, 140, 190, 250, 300. Then waited till again tit went up to 700. When it reacted to 600plus , I added more. It roes to 975. Recently I picked up at around 850 again. IN between it had reached 1025plus. When you invest this way, you are averaging on the PROFIT SIDE unlike doing it on loss side. With such system even if the canfin falls to say 800 as it ahs fallen this downtrend from 1050, you are not affected as your average would be in the range of 250 to 300 with a profit of 250% and so on.......Trust this helps you to understand

Dear OuAi. I just have to add one thing to your strategy of averaging on the profit side...This strategy is, of course, more suited when you are in general bullish on the stock i. e. when there are profits! Buying on the loss side ( I would rather call it ''value'' side) can be a useful strategy when I am generally bearish on the stock. For ex: I am expecting SBI to fall further & therefore would sell a part of my holding (say 25%) whenever I get a price 3%-5% higher than my average cost. I will buy back that 25% when I get a 5% inue doing it until I reach bottom. Only when I reach bottom, and therefore there is now a clearly established ''profit'' side, will i start accumulating on the way up.
Of course a much easier approach is to sit tight on cash, passively seek the bottom, & than start bulking up on ur way up. No need to monkey around with ur money. The only reason I am fiddling with my money right now is to have some first-hand-experience which is sorely lacking...

Most often it is easier to make a profit on rising side than falling side merely becain a growing economy, stocks continue to do outpace inflation and hold their prices in spite of temporary dis as of now. Most times , if one sells with at 3-5% at higher average price in the hope to get it back when it falls say another 5% , one misses and even looses such stock from portfolio forever unless one is willing to buy it much higher price. For information there are less than 2% investors who have sat on Infosys from Rs.9000/ to 5 cores today by just 100 shares becamost people cashed out in the hope of regaining a lower price. Similar is the case of say Page Industries available at 700 in say 2006. A stock that can generate wealth over a period o time assumes value even if it goes up by 5% as on longer term one is expecting it to give a return on 10x to 50x. No one ahs succeeded in knowing the bottom of a stock in market. There are thousands of investors who averaged Suzlon from 600 to 8 as on few months back assuming every fall in price was a value or bottom. In the process capital is eroded. In a growing economy, it is more prudent to look at value in future growth than value in something that has lost it''s inherent worth and fallen unless it is due to extraneous or special reasons. Let us say if an investor had sold SBI assuming that it will fall further and then suddenly if it were to rise incessantly next few trading sessions, one can''t buy it back without really losing! This strategy is only for investors not for traders. Traders look at short term movements. Investment is serious business.

I can see where ur coming from. Your philosophy is what we call ''growth investing'' whilst what I alluded to is ''value investing''.

I will dispose off 25% of my holding for 3%-5% gain becaI am expecting prices to fall. If it does not fall, I will of course not keep selling 25% at every 3%-5% increase!! I will never exhaust my entire portfolio. I''m just willing to sell 25% cheaply becaI am expecting to buy even more cheaply. If this condition is not met with & the stock starts to soar, I will obviously hold on to remaining 75% & might add some more on the way up.

Dear Gravitas, Growth & Value investment are the buzz words used in past 3 decades, nothing new. I have tried all this. The investing pattern needs to be in line with economy. My strategy is not to discover the bottom or when the share price soar. No one succeeded in determining market movements on a daily or monthly, in spite of all the data and research. With all the information such as bond yields, China data, Europe junk bonds that you collated which surely is a good work and study, does not offer a clue on whether market will tank or reverse. With all the negatives , yesterday CAC, DAC is up 3plus %, DOW, Nasdaq is also up. Any large economy that is mature and growing will provide growth over decades and centuries. Many times crisis like this provide great opportunities for additional investment , but not by selling existing holdings and trying to average. You can try whatever you are comfortable with. However one has to remember that like a cocoanut tree takes 10 years to yield , stocks also take longer periods of growing and not in short spurts. Despite all the information available on all data , and the decades of experience , I can''t predict market movements. So , I adopt a strategy to ride the wave.

1.Just to add between value and growth , what is growth today becomes value in the future. Say if one had invested in UTI Bank (Now Axis) in 2004 at Rs 200 at face value of 10 , today one is sitting on RS,1600 at 8X. All will say Rs.200 was value. However remember that in 2003/4 if investor had that conviction of its giving 5x and above then buy it even if it does means high at that time.
2. When you mention that you will sell 25% at say 5% higher and wait to average when price falls remember that balance 75% holding is under loss whereas when I purchase at price x and buy more at 10% higher my existing holding is in profits which is much safer.
2. When one wants to average on downside reducing the value of holding there is a limitation. IF our share price is 500 , theoretically the maximum one can reduce is 500 where as on the upper side sky is the limit.

Septa bhai
What strategy will apply on team lease
Whats ur suggestion
Pl guide for tomorrow listing
I have alloted nil

By the way, just noticed that Indigo was trading below the issue price at some point of time recently... compare that with 88% peak premium it touched..and all this happened with just the 1st quarter result post listing. Indigo still posted very good profits (+23%)..still has 85% passenger factor...still has low oil prices....but just becaof a short term delay (6-9 months I guess, may be a little more) in delivery of their new plane, the prices have taken such a beating.
In retrospection, it shows just how jumpy the prices could be in a short window (pre & post listing).
It, therefore, makes sense to wait if boarders are looking to buy into PCL... let the dust settle first...

agree even if want or tempted to buy better to wait or buy staggered..... even at 19 PE compare to other index world wide india is expensive.... some recent issue VRL to KH kelkar all have a chance to test list price becaonce margin tigers it tendency to sell first those which r making ANY MONEY.... so all those holiday recent list better book some profit

Dear Gravitas, China has several manufacturers of auto components whose manufacturing capacity is 6 to 10 times bigger than what Indian components manufacturers have. Don''t bank upon China volume for PCL. China''s shifting to services is not shifting manufacturing to services like the west or USA did. China''s growth in services is accelerated compared to manufacturing. For information, TATA, Ashok Leyland, Eicher all buy their times like crank shafts from Chinese suppliers and not from say Bharat Forge. Their prices are still cheaper and delivery is on dot timewise

Also current rout is on account of fears of European bank failure including Deutsche Bank. Not much to do with China. So with sensex PE at 17 plus as on today, you will have many opportunities to pick blue chips. For example ,Why not ICICI Bank at 180 then PCL at 150? A small turnaround can take ICICI Bank to 300 in no time. Check with Septa ji how low was ICICI Bank in 2008 Lehman brothers crisis and bounced back.

Septa Ji
Who is Anuj Anantrai Sheth and where he took holding

big HNI investor picks some very good small cap and micro cap multi bagger

Septa i follow you and want to know the future strategy in PRECAM as i am holding 2640 shares at IPO price. Your advice will help a lot. Thanks in Advance!!

three days a fall not good for any stock.... Shah big pay had a big impact on list which he candidly said it has given wrong impression about corporate governance and in future all such decision will be above the table....

For me it is long play and my investment is based of good growth and increase in both topline and bottom line presently the EPS is around 8 if this grows at 17% in few times EPS will double in 7 years EPS will triple and in 10 years EPs will 5 times that is 40 at least even at 20 PE the price in 3 years would be 320 in 5 years Rs 480 and 10 years Rs 800 which IMO is good return

Is his firm''s name
Anvil Share & Stock Broking Pvt Ltd.

http://alphaideas.in/2014/03/04/portfolio-anuj-anantrai-sheth/