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Talwalkars Better value Fitness Ltd IPO Message Board (Page 2)

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K.K.Natarajan
224. K.K.Natarajan  May 11, 2010 8:42:34 AM
220. Ravi Bangalore,
You can't describe the market better than this. I used to think it is just like a card game where some people who really play well make money and some people with their egos play all the wrong cards and lose money. But no one takes money home. But considering few people like Sreedhar and Gem IPO finder, my opinion may not be applicable to all but to a majority.
KUSUM
223. KUSUM  May 11, 2010 5:51:43 AM
good going in TALWAL may be good 4 long term investers hold 4 min one year.
sreedhar
222. sreedhar  May 10, 2010 11:50:35 PM
Dear Gem & all investors of Talwalkars,
Congrats on good listing of Talwalkars.I did not invest in Talwalkars as I did not have enough money to apply for it.I wanted to conserve my money for SJVNL which I thought would give guaranteed return of at least 3600(estimation of 3 times retail) & premium of 2 & also to buy stocks when markets go down(bought All metal companies at friday close & for 3 lakhs got more returns than 10 applications for Talwalkars).I wanted the best return with zero risk which SJVNL will deliver.My main motto is to make maney in market whether be it primary or secondary or derivatives market
Interesting Reliance Capital
221. Interesting Reliance Capital  May 10, 2010 8:35:40 PM
RELIANCE CAPITAL ASSET MGMT CO LTD A/C RELIANCE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN brought shares worth 23.31 crore. Thats interesting play!!!
ipo ipo
220. ipo ipo  May 10, 2010 8:33:12 PM
217 and 220. to Ravi Banglore :

Dear Ravi,

I read regularly this forum but hardly comment.
U mentioned yesterday that long term investor should buy this stock at @ 24 rs. Now u r telling @158 a target of 202+ for this stock. Yesterday u fooled ppl by your wild guesses.
Fu...in u do technical analysis on day 1 when stock has no history. Who has tought you all this idiotic analysis on day 1.
First of all all tech. analysis works on very large liquid stocks where there is wide spread buying and selling. This can not work on the small script like talwalkar. that too on day 1.

Garbish in Garbish out.

Sorry for tough langauage.
Ravi, Bangalore
219. Ravi, Bangalore  May 10, 2010 6:45:36 PM
What is Stock Market?

It is a symbol of traders' ground. It is a "Maidan-a-Jung". Full of cheating & scams. Fools loose money, intelligent people make money & influential as well as intelligent people create scams.

GLOSSARY:

M2M: Whether market up or down, M2M is always loss.

SHARE: Till you buy available at Rs.100, after you buy, available at Rs.75.

BULL MARKET: Even dreaded fools feel like he is very intelligent.

BEAR MARKET: Period of extreme difficulty- no picnic for children, no shopping for wife & no happiness for husband.

BROKER: Always makes profit, whether bull market or bear market.

RETIREMENT PLANNING: I & MY bROKER JOINTLY WORK-OUT A PLAN (for my broker's retirement).

MARKET CORRECTION: Analyst's estimation goes wrong & you loose money.

BEST STOCK: That you did not buy.

WORST STOCK: You don't tell anybody & holding since few months.
Abhishek
218. Abhishek  May 10, 2010 4:02:05 PM
have been writing that the slew of low quality offerings in the Indian market may herald a market high.But this might not be the case with the world leaders pouring money like water throught bailout packages and loan guarantees.So our testotorene fueled markets might grind higher and higher till all the cumulative problems come to a head. Jaypee Infratech which is a real estate cum road opeartor managed to limp through its book building with just 1.24 times subscription at the very low end of its range , no doubt helped by some friendly institutions . On the other hand “unique” health story Tawalkars managed a 15% premium on listing.Let’s see how they perform in the long run, wheter Tawalkar’s really manages to leverage its “brandname” to grow at fantastic levels.Read more at http://greeninvestor.com
Please Maintain Decency
217. Please Maintain Decency  May 10, 2010 3:36:24 PM
Please maintain decency
Everyone is giving own views its up to you you want to take or not you can not blame to anyone.
Ravi, Bangalore
216. Ravi, Bangalore  May 10, 2010 1:56:44 PM
Talwalkars 158- Target 171-176 zone, 182, 202+. Stop-loss 145 (Intra-day).

Buy 50% at current price & balance around 151.
ds
215. ds  May 10, 2010 1:29:11 PM
what happend if this stock is now 20% up


i think u have forgotten my words
i have shorted 2000 shares @ 17 rs gmp

and i alredy covered it in moring @ 135 means 135-128=7rs

that means 17-7=10 10*2000=20000 rs my profit


thanks
and keep beware with sjvn it definatly list on 24.7 and fal below issue price as u can see nhpc peer co. is falling .
Saharanpuri
214. Saharanpuri  May 10, 2010 12:03:12 PM
Q: You will be at more liberty now to talk about the kind of growth you have penciled in for the company. What is the revenue target that you have set for FY11 on the topline in terms of sales? What does it translates in terms of profits for Talwalkars?

A: Our estimate is that 2010 should close with a turnover of about Rs 70-72 crore with the EBITDA of about Rs 22-23 crore and a PAT of about Rs 8-8.5 crore. This is the year which went by. In the current year, we expect the turnover to be between Rs 120-125 crore with the EBITDA of between Rs38–40 crore and a PAT of between Rs 18-20 crore.

The health club will be opened in the last quarter of the current year. So the full year impact will be felt only in the next year for which year we feel that we should be able to do a turnover based on our expansion just now of about Rs 185-200 crore for March 2012, EBITDA of about Rs 57-60 crore and a PAT of about Rs 30-32 crore.



Q: For the current year FY11, if you do go onto report about Rs 20 crore in terms of profits, what would that mean in terms of earnings per share? Analysts are working with slightly slower estimates for you right now.

A: There are two factors first of all––one is we will be saving approximately Rs 2.5-3 crore of interest cost because some of the loans are getting repaid through the IPO proceeds. Maybe that is one of the things which has to be factored into the PAT for the current year. Number two is Rs 18-20 crore PAT figure which I have given to you, should give us an EPS of about Rs 7-7.5 to 8 on equity of about Rs 24 crore. So that is where we think we should be at the end of current year.



There are two critical reasons for it. We have opened seven health clubs in March 2010. We are opening 11 more in the next couple of months and 27 in the last quarter of the current year. The combine impact of that should take us to that turnover and profitability.

Q: Talking a little more about the kind of gyms that you plan to open in the next couple of years, could you tell us exactly how much by way of a margin are you expecting to hold across the board in the next couple of years? What is the average margin that you are targeting?

A: We have usually been revolving in a margin of between 29% and 34-34.5%. We believe that in a current year, the year-ended, we should be doing an EBITDA of about 33-34%. Even the current year which is March 2011, our expectation is between 33% and 33.5% EBITDA and about 13.5-14% PAT is what we expect to be at, maybe 14.5%. This is led by two reasons––our gym or per health club profitability is treated as each individual health club profitability and it usually does not change too much.

Number two is the breakeven does not take too much time to achieve because whichever cities we have been going into, whether it is Jodhpur, Jabalpur, Banaras and we will be going into a lot of more cities, we should be at about 48-50 cities by the end of this year. The response has been absolutely fantastic and I don’t see a problem on breakeven. The moment we do breakeven, the EBITDA accretion becomes immediate.

Q: You were speaking about the FY12 estimate on the PAT front, at about 30-32 crore that is a significant jump from hereon, could you tell us per gym how much are you expecting the weighted revenue to increase?

A: By the end of March 2011 we should be able to have 82 gyms within the company health club. Our weighted average revenue per gym is about 200 lakhs. So about Rs 165 to 170 crore of our turnover is secured in April 2011 itself. Then there will be expansion which will take place for the year ended March 2012. The expansion should be able to take us to a turnover between Rs 185 crore and 200 crore. That is point number one.

Point number two is per gym we do an EBITDA of 200 lakh is our ballpark benchmark turnover per health club. There will be some which are lesser, some more. This is the benchmark weighted average. 33% EBITDA on that is Rs 66 lakh EBITDA and a PAT of about 15% of that is between Rs 28 lakh and Rs 30 lakh. So that is approximately how a gym will pan out or health club on all India basis.

Q: Assuming you go on to do that Rs 30-32 crore in FY12 and your equity base remains the same, what do you think your earnings per share could scale up to from the current Rs 7.5 to 8 that you are projecting for this year?

A: This indicates that we should be able to do an EPS of between Rs 12.5 and 13.5 on Rs 10 share for the year ended March 2012, it is my own team take right now. The unrolling of 27 health club, if it is on schedule, should be because we are searching for properties all over India and some of them will get closed pretty soon. I don’t think that there should be a significant problem in doing that kind of PAT and 12.5-13.5 EPS.
awasthi
213. awasthi  May 10, 2010 11:37:53 AM
stock have started going down after hitting 155 now at 149 i think it will close day near 132 rs but would advise all to sell it otherwise little bit gain also is gone.
ajayshare
212. ajayshare  May 10, 2010 11:23:58 AM

I told you that at the time of listing market will be near 16800 now see last closing of sensex was 16800.

Now buy SARK BSE share CMP 39/- First target 45/- and second target 49/- till Friday stop loss 37/-.
omega
211. omega  May 10, 2010 11:07:31 AM
does a fitness company ?? makes more profit??

I agree that people are cautious about health and will always remain.. but the cost involved in maintaining a health club is more than the profit obtained..

anyways...what ever gives us profit we always like it..

MANOJ
210. MANOJ  May 10, 2010 11:04:45 AM
those who dont no which ipo to apply are always abuse other and lost manoy be gentalman and accept the mistake
beware
209. beware  May 10, 2010 11:03:19 AM
sold at 154 all shares.
this stock has been artifically manipulated by inida infoline just like infinite compueters.
it will definetely be below issue price in few days.
those who get chance exit from it completely
Saharanpuri
208. Saharanpuri  May 10, 2010 10:55:39 AM
breaking news

management has projected on cnbc an eps of 9 -10 rs in march 11 n 12-13 rs in march 12.

with cagr of 80 percent one can easily give ape of 30 to this unique co implying aprice target of 250-350 rs in medium term.

everybody who sold pl buy back.
gem ipo finder
207. gem ipo finder  May 10, 2010 10:53:02 AM
sreedhar,

look this ipo has also given ur minimum return of 2500/lac applcn, its more than 3000,

now i can see post ipo of sjvn many people are bullish on its propects so watch out its listing too it may cross 3500
MANOJ
206. MANOJ  May 10, 2010 10:52:31 AM
kha gaye who log read my massage 180 on day 1, 200 in seven day and 300 in month time enjoy sorry for those who do not apply and abuse me
gem ipo finder
205. gem ipo finder  May 10, 2010 10:46:16 AM
gangu

thanks for ur appraisals

i exited 50 shares at 158.35 & 50 at 160.8
still holding 50*3

u also did good in exiting at 152