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Nagesh Dhanpal's Comments

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6. Nagesh Dhanpal  Apr 11, 2017 2:04:29 PM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Dear Septa Sir,

Can you help me out for below parameter. I have been stuck from last many days, and not able to move further.

1) In DCF model, how you have calculated Initial Cash Flow, from where we will get this information exactly.

2) How to calculate Debt Level

Please help me out from this.
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5. Nagesh Dhanpal  Apr 4, 2017 12:57:05 PM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Septa Apr 3, 2017 9:20:45 PM IST

With reference to your mssg regarding DCF techniques and fair value, I guess there is something terribly wrong.

As you have taken 1st year Value as 700 crore which coming around 693.75 crore as model with 11% Growth and so on..

Which is impacting further calculation and final figure as follows

1) PV of the year 1-10 Cash Flow: 60,770,127.183.71
2) Terminal Value: 77,825,203,527.21
3) Total PV of the Cash Flow: 138,595,330,710.92

So the other factors like Intrinsic Value and Margin of Safety.

Not able to calculate Intrinsic Value and Margin of Safety as Debt Level is not mentioned and I have failed to figure out (Kindly mentioned)




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5.1. Nagesh Dhanpal  Apr 4, 2017 1:18:38 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Based on your calculation, i reached on certain fig of Debt Level and based on that, i calculate Intrinsic Value and Margin Safety coming as follows

Intrinsic Value: 69.23

Margin Safety: 86.53

% of IV: 56.15

Debt Level taken as 8,426,367== Correct me if I am wrong. Will be glad to know where m getting wrong.

Thanks in advance

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5.2. Nagesh Dhanpal  Apr 4, 2017 2:01:20 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Pardon me,

Margin of Safety: 51.92
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4. Nagesh Dhanpal  Mar 28, 2017 3:50:14 PM IST Reply

Shankara Building Products Ltd IPO

@ sandyy Mar 28, 2017 2:34:16 PM IST

Do u mean in DRHP, they mentioned issue size...??

Do you really mean so..??
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3. Nagesh Dhanpal  Mar 28, 2017 2:07:08 PM IST Reply

Shankara Building Products Ltd IPO

@sandyy Mar 28, 2017 1:25:08 PM IST

From DRHP
OFS of 53,422,169 shares

Expected Issue size 1500 cr

So assuming that Price band at upper will be 281

Waiting for actual price band
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3.1. sandyy  Mar 28, 2017 2:34:16 PM IST

Shankara Building Products Ltd IPO

Expected Issue size 1500 cr didn''t mention there.
anyway thanks for ur efforts nd quick response to my post.
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2. Nagesh Dhanpal  Mar 28, 2017 12:56:23 PM IST Reply

Shankara Building Products Ltd IPO

AU Financier filed for IPO
Basic data is as follows

Basic Data of AU Financier

Revenue

FY 11-12=> 2,306.93
FY 12-13=> 4,130.84
FY 13-14=> 5,731.20
FY 14-15=> 6,894.08
FY 15-16=> 10,519.50
FY 16-17 6M=> 6,943.40
FY 16-17 9M(E)=> 9,257.86
FY 16-17 (E)=> 13,886.80

PBT
FY 11-12=> 553.87
FY 12-13=> 1,026.83
FY 13-14=> 1,096.51
FY 14-15=> 2,073.06
FY 15-16=> 3,772.43
FY 16-17 6M=> 2,642.43
FY 16-17 9M(E)=> 3,523.24
FY 16-17 (E)=> 5,284.86

EPS
FY 13-14=> 2.99
FY 14-15=> 5.31
FY 15-16=> 9.28
FY 16-17 6M=> 6.26
FY 16-17 9M(E)=> 8.35
FY 16-17 (E)=> 12.52

PE
FY 15-16=> 30.28
FY 16-17 (E)=> 40.85

Industry PE
Highest=> 41.54
Lowest=> 18.26
Avg.=> 29.19

P/B
FY 15-16=> 7.43

Industry P/B
Highest=> 6.96
Lowest=> 3.34
Avg=> 4.46


Pure OFS
No of shares offer: 53,422,169
Employee Quota: 1,000,000
QIB=> 26,211,084.50
Anchor=> 15,726,649.00
RII=> 18,347,759.15
Applicationwise=> 494,548.76
NII=> 2,209,594,423.35 1X

Data is based on DRHP

Waiting for Price Band
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2.1. sandyy  Mar 28, 2017 1:25:08 PM IST

Shankara Building Products Ltd IPO

Waiting for Price Band then how did u calculated PE for 15-16 & 16-17 ?

PE
FY 15-16=> 30.28
FY 16-17 (E)=> 40.85

??????

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1. Nagesh Dhanpal  Mar 8, 2017 8:31:02 AM IST Reply

Avenue Supermarts Limited IPO

May be someone will be happy today after looking at TRENT price.. its 255
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