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16. gamble  Jun 17, 2017 3:29:49 PM IST Reply

GTPL Hathway Limited IPO

........GTPL.......

........ 2014.....15........16....17(9M)

EpS.....3.31....2.04......8.09.....4.39

Amazingly no match for EPS growth/PAT/Revenue growth.. ..very much dressed up for ipo only imo.


EpS 8.09
@170 === 21PE

peers are making losses so no comparision

Seeing inconsistency in top/bottom line PE above 15-18X is unjustified.

18*8==144(max)

Too much barriers in Business. ......
Plus T group listing

A big avoid imo.
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16.6. Ipo tracker  Jun 20, 2017 10:28:23 PM IST

GTPL Hathway Limited IPO

It will not list in ''T'' group, as issue size is around 480 crores. (ofs+fresh issue)
As Motilal is involved, one can hope to buy cheaper, after listing.
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16.7. gamble  Jun 20, 2017 10:31:11 PM IST

GTPL Hathway Limited IPO

Yes my mistake...B group issue.
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15. gamble  Jun 20, 2017 5:28:06 PM IST Reply

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

It''s real funny when people compared TEJAs and EriS subscription figure and estimate listing gain based on the same.

Are bhai Eris almost 4 times bigger than Tejas .one is 1720 cr other 450 cr.

So Eris 4x i.e tejas should be 16x.. !!

wait for 23 & 29th.

Till then be calm and do YoGA.

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15.1. Jainvipul  Jun 20, 2017 5:46:51 PM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

@gamble sir
Please shares your view for both ipo in listing day. Your analysis is very useful for us.
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15.2. nicks Jain  Jun 20, 2017 5:50:04 PM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

ERIS is altogether different company, Debt Free and most importantly its not dependent upon US as other major pharma co.
Clearly Good Business with Good Figures.
One should definitely Apply and also can be hold for longer term.
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14. gamble  Jun 17, 2017 2:55:01 PM IST Reply

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

..............~Eris lifesciences~...........

After checking peers twice i m fully convinced for applying in Eris(earlier decided to skip and buy after listing but now not sure that i can grab near/below ipo price :-)

.......Peers comparison.......

..... Last 5 yr top/bottom line growth

Peers ....... Top line .. ........bottom line.

Glaxo............18%...............(-30%)

Abbott. .........60%...............73%

Pfizer.. .........88%................(-33%)

EriS.. ............89%.................317%


......Hence, none peers are nearer to Eris''s financial performance plus other companies are incorporated 50+ year ago and EriS only decade old.so it is very much possible that eriS will continue to outperform peers in every parameters.


Take 35% EPS growth(least taken)

............EPS.. .....PE
2017 17.61......34
2018 23.80.......25
2019 32.00.......19
2020 43.20.......14

for 2018(this FY) EPS of 23.70 and PE ideal 30

i.e 30*23.8==714
23.8*35===833

So u might see Eris in 714-833 range this yr .

....Listing may hppn near 680/85 (13% up).

Near 1.2L forms reqd for 1x.. .so fair chances of allotment also be there.
Rii possible 3.5-4x appwise.



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14.5. CA M&co.Jodhpur  Jun 17, 2017 9:36:16 PM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

You​ are really IPO expert.
Thanks for providing analysis on the basis of information.
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14.6. gamble  Jun 20, 2017 1:37:15 PM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

Qib >25X
NII > 50x. ...
should be more than fine..

Disc. Already applied @yesterday.
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13. gamble  Jun 14, 2017 4:52:09 PM IST Reply

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

My view........


.......Tejas -........
Avoid (if u already applied exit at first place after listing..financials are dressed )

.........CDSL - .......
blind apply(do not sell on kostak of 450)
Appwise 13-15x possible due to other ipos at same time otherwise 17/18x possible

i. e 15*450==6750

If list only @80 premium then also 8000 rs profit...though hoping listing around 255 or above.

........Eris life science. ......

Buy after listing. Or kip view of 4/6 months and apply.


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13.10. gamble  Jun 16, 2017 9:20:13 PM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

TechM good but in bearish mode..have to wait 3-6 month for some meaning full return(if any) only dividends are good.
IT-pharma are not in mood of mkt...only short covering are/will there(for medium term).. Not much buying. So will jump 5-7% in 1 month and then suddenly down by 10% in 2 days.. !!
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13.11. ShareView  Jun 17, 2017 11:43:02 AM IST

Eris Lifesciences Limited IPO

ok.thnx a lot.My portfolio stocks also performs in this manner regardless where nifty reaches.7-8% up in 4-5 months and suddenly 10-12% down in a day and never moves up beyond that level ! So focusing in ipo only .
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12. gamble  May 26, 2017 9:23:06 AM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

It''s just 3 days.. ..and look at return

Kiri blasting 13% after robust result

2383.5. gamble May 23, 2017 4:38:09 PM IST 4 |
IPO Guru (1100+ Posts, 900+ Likes)
Well well u can''''t get any better than this...


This 5 also keep on radar

Can look as a fresh
1) kiri industry
2) prabhat dairy
3) hindustan media


On dips
4) cholamandalam fin
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12.15. Hellrazor  May 31, 2017 10:15:27 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Kiri is very good pick. But cases with dyster is holding it back. If thy loose that case there will be some financial impact on its balance sheet
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12.16. Futurze Avenue  Jun 1, 2017 10:28:42 AM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Sun, Glenmark & entire pharma pack is moving now...
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11. gamble  May 21, 2017 10:27:55 AM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Same happened what i suspected. ...

Kostak seller gets optimum profit.

If u sold 6 app btwn 1200-1500 suppose @1200
1200*6=7200(and hv alloted 1)

Listing day high @77 == 3800

So net 3400(if u hv 6 ac)
Net 2200(if u hv 5 Ac)



gamble (May 1, 2017 9:16:31 PM IST)

For: Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd

@58 RS PE near 15/16 ....good

RII may not cross 5x appwise.should b near 4.5x(near 3.5L Form req for 1x)

Now As हडको ipo provides kostak 1000+ we need to see whether it provides optimum return if we keep it open or sell in kostak.

GMP around 27/28 i.e 58+27==85

@85 PE will b near 24...(that should b overwhelmed valuation for flat growth psu)

............If kostak goes to 1200 then

1200*5 == 6000......
Gmp 27*200==5400 ....
Difference =600 rs

..........For 1500 kostak
Difference=2100rs(!!)


......Yes हडको will play very imp role in Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY) and under Housing for All (HFA)....but that is upto 2022

....Yes mkt sees future not present/past but sudden jump in EPS may not visible now..in 2019/2021 may b..!!


Good sell Tgt ==== 87-90


Concl..

If u r getting kostak anywhere btwn 1200-1500 and u hv 4/5 or more Accounts then kostak sell would b good to reap optimum profit(1/2/3 account wale apna luck ajmaye(keep it open) hope u will get one by लौटरी :-)
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11.8. Futurze Avenue  May 24, 2017 9:10:25 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Dear Gamble Sir,

Please share your rational / logic behind below suggest. Is it
1) Value​ buy
2) Growth
3) Investment​ theme (like rural/ small housing..)
4) Strong fundamentals/ debt free etc..
5) Investment by well know investors OR
6) You have invested ?

.... I have not done any analysis on below suggestion at my end as of now..

Can look as a fresh
1) kiri industry
2) prabhat dairy
3) hindustan media

On dips
4) cholamandalam fin
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11.9. OldFox  May 26, 2017 8:46:24 AM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Hi gamble,

Any new recommendations?
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10. gamble  May 11, 2017 2:43:02 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

One more gambling....

starts accumulating Shilpi cable frm now

Earlier was good profit in mandhana and mbl infra let see where this goes
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10.19. IPO INFORMAR  May 24, 2017 11:47:20 AM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Justified rate looks to be 350,still there is scope to come out at 570,You may retain & enjoy loss.
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10.20. NRI Investor  May 25, 2017 12:49:27 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Shilpi cables r bankcrupt now. Its official. their bankcrupcy is been approved. All retail shares value becomes big zero 0 now.
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9. gamble  May 9, 2017 10:46:26 AM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Breakout above 683 or below 664....
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9.1. gamble  May 9, 2017 10:59:52 AM IST
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8. gamble  May 5, 2017 9:11:53 PM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

What else u need !!
BSE winning In every parameters relentlessly.

Comparison of FY17 with FY16

Revenue up by 19%
NP up 66%
EPS up 65%(now 40.41)
EBITDA up 21%

...wait.. ...
Not done yet.. ...!!

" 23 RS dividend " - just awesome

....Results were Already announced during mkt hours...so no gap up opening

......consider BSE as ur FD(with atleast 25% fixed return a yr) ...and keep hold on your core portfolio.
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8.13. goutam  May 8, 2017 7:11:52 AM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Gamble sir ....which stock div @ 23/-
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8.14. Newcomer  May 8, 2017 8:20:34 AM IST
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7. gamble  May 5, 2017 10:01:08 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Yeah got 2/6 .......44 share

Whatever GMP goes.. .i m confident that will get more than kostak sell
i. e 6*450==2700

Share 2700/44=61

GMP above 61 is just enough. ..!!


Though 15%-18% up listing expected. ..no change of view before subscription or after allotment. .and hoping same frm" S chand "on 9th of May.

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7.1. gamble  May 5, 2017 10:05:07 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Above calculation is main reason for GMP down.. .i. e if someone bought my apps in kostak than @100 GMP it gain 38 rs net
I. E 836 RS NET.. .!! So sellers in GM.. Will halt soon.

More allotment than expected? ?
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7.2. gamble  May 5, 2017 10:05:36 PM IST
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6. gamble  May 1, 2017 9:16:31 PM IST Reply

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

@58 RS PE near 15/16 ....good

RII may not cross 5x appwise.should b near 4.5x(near 3.5L Form req for 1x)

Now As हडको ipo provides kostak 1000+ we need to see whether it provides optimum return if we keep it open or sell in kostak.

GMP around 27/28 i.e 58+27==85

@85 PE will b near 24...(that should b overwhelmed valuation for flat growth psu)

............If kostak goes to 1200 then

1200*5 == 6000......
Gmp 27*200==5400 ....
Difference =600 rs

..........For 1500 kostak
Difference=2100rs(!!)


......Yes हडको will play very imp role in Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY) and under Housing for All (HFA)....but that is upto 2022

....Yes mkt sees future not present/past but sudden jump in EPS may not visible now..in 2019/2021 may b..!!


Good sell Tgt ==== 87-90


Concl..

If u r getting kostak anywhere btwn 1200-1500 and u hv 4/5 or more Accounts then kostak sell would b good to reap optimum profit(1/2/3 account wale apna luck ajmaye(keep it open) hope u will get one by लौटरी :-)

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6.5. D D Soni  May 2, 2017 4:27:31 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

@ Gamble, What is the price to book? :)
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6.6. Amarbull  May 2, 2017 10:10:51 PM IST

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Ltd IPO

Hi Gamble,

Please advise some stocks from short term point of view..

I am your great fan.
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5. gamble  Apr 28, 2017 5:53:47 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Well played NIIs.. ..!!

RII feeling like cheated....!!


but as a CHITTORGARHer(like you tuber) YOU were informed about this game much before ...that time game has not even started. ..!!

116.1. gamble Apr 27, 2017 5:08:19 PM IST
S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Finally septaji on fire.. .!!

NII playing big game.. .!!


Who is shaft and who the hell is motor?

Rii banam NII

QiB outperforming.

GMP crashed. ....this is what we were hoping ....Now RII thodi mehrbani karna.. ..4x ke upper subsc. Nahi jana chahiye.. ..so can others(like me) get allotment decisively. ..!!

લોલ??....LoL
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4. gamble  Apr 27, 2017 7:46:55 AM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Sell in kostak at 400/500??
Kidding? ?

Why one should give account for just 400/rs ...if allotment done then these entries are consider for taxes. .plus u hv to pay brokerage


If kostak near 1000+ for any ipo then only one should sell.. .otherwise no point of selling and making ur passbook filled up for someone else..

Either u apply and keep open or don''t apply at all...but kostak selling idea is just too lame.....!!


Kostak buyers are smartest Animal alive on earth! ! Yes.. !!
if u see.. .

Assume RII 4X then kostak would become 1600 rs

And GMP is near 130 so give it open at 100 plus

Then also they earn 15% or 2200..!!

So no paying single RS not invested single RS No entries in passbook and earning is 600 odd. ..!!

Just Amazing! ! Think Rii.. !! Think.. !!
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4.7. AKH  Apr 27, 2017 10:44:04 AM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

sorry according to septa not you
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4.8. gamble  Apr 27, 2017 11:05:52 AM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Let S chand itself provide ans for that.. .as they provides in very simple but effectively in their books. ...!!
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3. gamble  Apr 26, 2017 9:17:28 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Already Applied at first day. .!!

GMP just an illusion. ..even if opens 100 plus which i m hoping it will give u 2 yrs FD.. ..!!

See the bigger picture. ...!!

NII coming heavily. .!!


Compare EV/sales, EV/EBIDtA, p/BV also with Navneet And u wil get ur answers. ...better than Navneet. ..!!
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2. gamble  Apr 25, 2017 9:23:40 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO


Result update::

Icici pruli ::

Dividend 3.5 RS
PAT: 1682 cr vs 1650 cr(full yr yoy)
Good policy primium growth

but PAT Growth only 1% ....!! Huh.. !!!
And rally 30%......!!!
Not justified the rally...

Ipo investor or below ipo rate price buyer should book profit on icicipruli as the recent rally already priced in this type of very avg rrsults.
Earlier given strong buy near 334/300.


..........Idfc bank..




Net NPA dip
75 paisa dividend

PAT @1019 cr vs 466 cr(for q4 176 vs 165)
EPS @3.00 vs 1.38

Share trading at very decent valuation.. .upside of 25% also fair in next 3 months.
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2.7. Roz Marlo  Apr 25, 2017 10:06:51 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Thanks for the details @septa and @gamble....I will research IDFC bank...looks interesting in pvt banking space..

@septa...the time u r spending with S Chand analysis is commendable...

let''s see whether it will sail through such a high valuation of 40x earnings on listing day....

but better to focus on secondary market with some good fundamentally strong companies screaming buy loudly.....

all the best to you...I still think S Chand will surprise everybody on listing day.....
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2.8. gamble  Apr 26, 2017 12:46:12 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

As expected ipl halt The rally and trading 4-5% minus.due to avg set of numbers.. .but given a good exit opportunity(with hugh 25%return in a short term) for exit near 422/24 at today morning.
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1. gamble  Apr 25, 2017 6:59:34 PM IST Reply

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Do anyone remember Narayana Hrudayalaya(NH) ipo??

At that time same fight had there btwn valuation and brand name..but what hppnd ???......listed 17% up and rallied onther 17%(which had commanded a way more valuation than peers.. On basis of what? ?...future expansion plans and a brand name only.. . ).

....i believing/hoping same for S Chand also( i. e atleast 15% listing gain*)


......so mkt one or other way like brand name/reputation/etc(at the time of listing atleast :-))

.....one should also not forget about present mkt condition (good enough for listing with premium of any valuation ipo)


...valuation is little stretched but comparing with what? Navneet is not exact peer ..S chand have more value to unlock than Navneet imo.


......PE oF 40 (2016) is justified or not only time will tell.. .but THEY SHOULD HAVE PROVIDED A COMPARISON OF 9M 2016 WITH 9M 2015 OR ATLEAST DATA OF LAST QUARTER OF 2016. IF Anyone hv that then share it here.


S Chand the Conclusion.....

This is not like D mart or BSE or Shankara but also not like CL educate and one should give a chance for a well reputated 1970''s promising company.

Expected return : 15%*


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17.5. gamble  Apr 25, 2017 9:09:42 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

Septa sir .....not comparing at all both. ..just give an idea at what level we(RII) proved wrong despite all ground/financial work..

....if NII above 50/75x then negative listing is nxt to impossible.
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17.6. Septa  Apr 25, 2017 9:16:51 PM IST

S Chand and Company Ltd IPO

IMO best option is sell in grey market and pocket 500 per application however in chennai brokers r very in active to take any position
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