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gamble's Comments

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8. gamble  Feb 25, 2018 5:55:16 PM IST Reply

H.G. Infra Engineering Ltd IPO

.................. H.G. Infra Engg. .............

- Rajasthan based infra-construction player(highway, bridges)
- main presence in maharashtra, rajasthan. Planning to expand
- orderbook 3700cr as per Nov, 2017
- 67% revenue frm Public sector clients, rest frm private

- M.cap(@270) = 1760cr
- Past 3 yr CAGRs(14-17)
PAT = 40%
............... PE...... P/S......O/S.......PAT cagr

HG......... 35....... 1.7x......3.4x.......40%

Figures r for/till 2017 only
O/S = orderbook/Sales, approx figures

So, HG superior in almost parameter ,
EBITDA Margins though are lesser.

Total shares post issue : 6,51,71,111
2017 PAT : 49cr
2018 Expected PAT : 58cr (5% margin)

2017 PE : 35
2018 PE : 30( EPS : 8.9rs)

Avg industry PE = 40x

@ 40 PE Price = 356 rs(1 yr after list)

@2x P/S = 2100cr valuation = 320 rs ( 2 months after listing)

@ 33 PE = 297 INR( listing)

Imo, 2x P/S and 33 PE is fair to moderate valuation of this type of highly growth infra firm

Rii forms reqd just above 1L, possible allotment chances 1/5 to 1/6


Looking at orderbook, HG may announce good Q3 & Q4 as well, after that rerating possible based on number of FY19 or change in govt(if any!)

So, one may subscribe for 1.5-2 FD listing gain and/or for medium term.

Consider above as an imo only πŸ‘†

8.14. Djds  Mar 19, 2018 11:18:14 PM IST

H.G. Infra Engineering Ltd IPO

Gamble bhai kuch toh reply karo.aapke ideas ke liye bahut sare log wait kar rahe hai.pls post ur views on all the ipos
8.15. Djds  Mar 21, 2018 11:54:51 AM IST

H.G. Infra Engineering Ltd IPO

Sir y not replying. More ipos but absence of u .pls post ur review.very much confusing which to apply .pls post sir
7. gamble  Feb 13, 2018 6:19:51 PM IST Reply

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd IPO

................ Aster DM healthcare............
(We''ll treat you well..!! )
Operating in healthcare segment with
-Hospitals (19)
-Retail pharmacies (206)
With revenue contribution 46%,27%,27% respectively in GCC- middle east countries (UAE, Saudi, Qatar etc)and india as well as Philippines as of march, 2017
- contribution in total revenue of gulf countries are 81%.
-Total hospital business contributing 49% of 31 sept 2017.
(so as name suggests this is healthcare firm, more wider than specific hospital business)
Revenue CAGR : 32.5%
PAT caGr : 30%(uneven growth)
EBITDA caGr : 8%
M.cap @190rs β‰ˆ 8400cr
D/E = 1.4x (pre ipo)
D/E = 0.8x(post ipo)
Peer :
No actual peer available that doing exactly same business as aster does, but Apollo hospital somewhat more comparable than other peer.

................. PE....... PS........topline growth

Aster......... 44........1.4x........33%
NH............ 75.........3.3x.......18%
Shalby........55......... 7x........11%

PS = m.cap/sales

Aster shown extraordinary top line growth compared to peers ,must be due to aggressive expansion plan and that leads to negative bottom line in 2017(excluding exceptional) and 2018 half year.

Valuation :

@190 rs 2017 PE = 44
2018 PE = NA (made loss in first half)

Here in hospital segment and/or healthcare segment PE is imo not much useful because you can verify stocks trading 20 to 120 PE comfortably.
So sales base valuation may good approch here.

@2x sales(near Apollo) m.Cap = 12000+ cr.
(half year sales = 3140cr)

@12k cr valuation Price = 270(fair value imo)(1 yr after list)

@1.5x sales = 210 INR(within a month/listing)
- loss making first half
- low presence in India
- high EV/EBITDA ratio(profitability concerns)
- planning few more hospitals within 2 years, PAT continue to remain under pressure

- PE player not exiting.
- diversified business
- beds increased 1419 to 4754 within 5 yr.
- aggressive expansion plans
- out of 9 hospitals in Gulf countries 4 are established in less than 5 years(so this are not contributing at full in financials generally it takes 5 yrs to contribute full after establishment)
- D/E will decreased 1.5 to 0.8x post issue.
Rii reqd 2.3L + forms for 1x,
Looking at neutral or risky rating by top reviewer, 0 GMP and Volatile market conditions only 4-5L forms expected,
i.e = 1/2 allotment chances (more than fair!)

One may subscribe to this finest healthcare player(but yet to deliver) for semi-med to medium term approach.
Listing gain may be 0.5 to 1FD. Or may wait for Last day Nii/QIB figures

Consider above as an imo only πŸ‘†

7.9. gamble  Feb 26, 2018 11:00:09 AM IST

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd IPO

Bit early to comment or justify 2 hr as semi- medium term???
7.10. Cool Sunshine  Feb 26, 2018 1:23:13 PM IST

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd IPO

Agree with Gamble. He did not mention anywhere listing gain. He said subscribe for semi-med to medium which I would interpret as 4-6 months.

There are people who deliberately misinterpret suggestions of some selected few to propagate their thinking and then there are potential applicants who are willing to see only the word "SUBSCRIBE" and ignore anything before and after it.

Hope gradually applicants do not blindly chase ever narrowing listing gains and start thinking slightly longer term investments. That should serve them better.

On one side, I believe that ASTERDM to give chance to applicants to exit at least @ issue price , on the other hand I do not completely ignore the possibility of this stock making new low soon. But it is highly probable that stock may not give any significant returns in near term.
Take your own call....depending how much risk you want to take.

6. gamble  Jan 27, 2018 10:20:28 PM IST Reply

Galaxy Surfactants Limited IPO

............. Galaxy surfactants..................
(global supplier to global brands )
Product portfolio :
1) Surfactants (65%)
2) Speciality chemicals (35%)
Only 34%Revenue coming frm india rest 66% frm export.
- Good business segment
Customers : L''OrΓ©al, Himalaya, P&G, dabur, HUL etc

Revenue CAgR = 9%
PAT caGr = 24%
EBITDA margin = 12%
RonW = 28%
PAT Margin = 6.7%
M. CAP = 5247cr
No of shares 35454752
(before and after issue same due to complete OFS)
2017 PAT : 146cr

EPS : 41+ => PE = 36(@1480)

2018 half year PAT = 75cr on 1196cr sales with margin 6.3%
Full yr possible PAT = 148cr on 2350cr sales with same 6.3% margin

i.e EPS = 42 => PE : 35(@1480)

Margin slightly going up frm 4.5%(2014)
To 6.7%(2017)

@7% margin PE = 32
@8% margin PE = 28
So here we hv again ipo with slight margin change can change PE big time type just after after Shankara, prataap, dixon, amber

So valuation may given based on sales.

Sales of 2018 =2350cr,

Now here no comparable peer but if you see speciality chemical segment or FMCG then it''s difficult to find good growth companies at M.cap/sales <= 3x.

So @3x P/S = 7050 m.cap (PE = 48)
i.e Price = 1988 rs ( 1 yr tgt after list)

@2.5x P/S = 5857cr M. Cap
i.e Price = 1655 rs *(possible Listing) (PE =39)
Rii form reqd 2.2L +, so if 7-8 lakh come,
Allotment ratio 1/3 type(Fair chances)
Concerns :
- PatanJaLi
- Max revenue comes from top most customers
- 2011
- low Top line growth

One may subscribe to this global exporter or may wait for last day subscription. expected listing gain 1-1.5 FD.

Consider above all as an imo only πŸ‘†

6.15. Djds  Feb 9, 2018 11:12:06 AM IST

Galaxy Surfactants Limited IPO

Gamble bro ur idea on aster dm healthcare ipo.pls post asap.thank u
6.16. Djds  Feb 13, 2018 9:32:46 AM IST

Galaxy Surfactants Limited IPO

Gamble bro ur opinion on aster dm healthcare.kindly reply
5. gamble  Jan 15, 2018 10:44:11 PM IST Reply

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

........... . Amber enterprises...........

- Room Air Conditioner (RAC) , their components manufacturer (including inverter AC)
- Market leader with 55.4% market share.
- Top 8 from 10 indian AC brand are customers of this punjab based RAC manufacturer(Top 10 AC brands hv 75% mkt share)
- 11 manufacturing facilities, 7 locations

Industry :
2018-22 13% CAgR volume growth possible in RAC.
Hugh growth opportunities because indian RAC mkt current penetration at just 4%.
Fresh issue of 475 cr, OFS 125cr33

Profit caGr = 10%
Margin(2017)= 1.7%
Margin(2018 HY 1) = 2.9%

Margin up by 120 bps and profit almost doubled ( same profit in 2018 HY 1 as Full year 2017)
Valuation :

post issue equity : 31446540
2017 PAT : 28cr, EPS : 9 => PE : 92

2018 HY 1 PAT = 27.3cr
=> Full year expected PAT = 47.5cr (1900 cr sales 2.5% margin)
=> EPS : 15.3 => PE : 56 (@859 rs)

@3% margin => EPS : 18 => PE : 47

@859 M.Cap 2700 cr on sales of 1900 cr
P/S = 1.42x
Peers : None.
Somewhat similar businesses model : Dixon Technologies.

......................... Amber......... Dixon

CAGR(Top line).......17%..........30%
CaGr(bottom)......... 10%......... ..70%
Margin(HY 2018)......2.9%......... 2%

Dixon cmp : 3800rs
Amber : 859rs

So, Amber somewhat lagging in delivering good growth. Let see how they utilise this 400cr fresh for improving bottom line.

Seeing First Mover, tremendous growth opportunities, mkt leader, consumption segment, bull mkt condition and improved margin(Past 2 quarters)

2x m.cap/sales should be fair value (because PE here not much useful as it swing widely by small margin changes)

i.e = 2*1900 cr = 3800cr m. Cap
=> 1208 INR (Fair value imo) (listing tgt)

Year 2019 sales : 2200 cr = 4400cr m. Cap
=> 1400 INR(1 yr tgt)

Rii reqd 1.4L forms, expecting 8-9L forms ,
Allotment chances 1/6.

One may apply for listing gain and long term.

Consider above as an imo only 😊
5.12. Mastram  Jan 30, 2018 12:33:10 PM IST

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

Gamble sir thank you very much for your guidance.....hoping Septa sir also start contributing soon....Uchit patel sir thanks to you too...
Also missing from this forum is EE, Shareview, nidhike, market kid. Do contribute all.

I am really fed up of many numerologist born in this forum.
5.13. RJ Rocks  Feb 1, 2018 1:39:36 PM IST

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

Day high 1328.90 @NSE.
GAMBLE SIR it will hit your 1yr target soon.
4. gamble  Jan 30, 2018 5:46:09 PM IST Reply

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

@Amber and Newgen ... .
Listing as Expected (missed with 2-4% margin!!)......

But now both trading at above fair value(mine!) , just like any other secondary stock. so fresh buying is not advisable, yes can enter amber for longer term but M expecting buying may possible at lower level in upcoming days.

Imo Better idea is here to keep fund for strong fundamental small-mid caps in corrections than invest fresh in above ipo at these levels.

( here discussion is going on whom to follow,
Follow urself only, because either loss or profits, money is yours so decisions b also urs)
4.1. Huzefa  Jan 31, 2018 7:21:06 AM IST

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

@Gamble, I want to make stock market investment as my full time profession, rather than work for someone else and make them rich, i would rather work for myself and make myself rich. Can you suggest me good books to read so that I can analyse and research stocks my self instead of blindly reading someone else''s analysis!!!
4.2. DSR  Jan 31, 2018 8:40:58 AM IST

Amber Enterprises India Limited IPO

Sir side query... FSC going down below IPO price. Can this be considered for further accumulation
3. gamble  Jan 10, 2018 1:26:54 PM IST Reply

Apollo Micro Systems Limited IPO

... Apollo micro... ....

-ESDM (electronic system design & manufacturing) business
high entry barrier business
- 54% Top line CAgR
- 56% bottom line CAGR
- 29% roNw


Post issue equity 20672727

2017 PAT 18.57 => EPS 9.01 => PE =29(@263 - 12 rs discount on 275)

FY18 HY 1 => PAT : 7.1cr on 109cr revenue

Full yr expected PAT 20-22.5cr on 270-300cr revenue
(This business generates max revenue in second half i.e HY2)

=> 2018 EPS 10.6* => PE = 25 (@263)


Industry PE 30. ....

. .. ...... ........ @30 PE price 318 (possible listing price)

M. Cap at issue price 275 = 568cr

BEL trading 4x and astra micro trading 2.5x m. Cap/sales

So if give same 2.5x to this Apollo micro then => m. Cap 750cr

.............. 750cr m.cap price = 363 rs ( 1 yr after list tgt)

(if order book improves from sub 100cr level, it''s actually easy seeing high entry barrier business)


Rii form 40k+ reqd... If 7-8L form come =20x oversubscription possible

ConcL.. ...... ..... Subscribe to this high growth ipo.
3.17. Ram bharose  Jan 11, 2018 8:06:05 PM IST

Apollo Micro Systems Limited IPO

@harekrishnasara... this is a god given opportunity! spend all the application money on holidays with your family :p .... on a serious note you can''t do anything about it now
3.18. ManishDwiv  Jan 25, 2018 5:07:34 PM IST

Apollo Micro Systems Limited IPO

From 300-350 levsl,Everyone can expct some buyng to come..Till den hold your stocks and for God sake,stop puttng bids of 4lacs + evry morning..πŸ˜‚
2. gamble  Jan 12, 2018 9:58:07 AM IST Reply

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

Uttrayan tgt was only 480,but MahLog trading 540+.....

indeed a crazy bull mkt. Now only left behind is FSC !!

SubsidiarieS :
2*2 logistics, Lords fright
Earlier were loss making but in last 3, 6 mnths made profit !!
Peers : no exact comparable but still nearly peers

............... . M.cap...... PE..... 5 yr CAGR....mcap/sales
TCI.......... 2130cr........30..........0%....1.10
All cargo...4100cr.......20.........6%.....0.75
Vrl........... 3200cr........43.........11%.... 1.8

Above taken only consideration of m.cap similarity

Other logistics player trading,
Aegis 64PE , Allcargo 18PE(good pick for med term! )

Avg logistics ind PE : 52.8

So, price band is not much high if see overall picture,

Mahindra other group share,
Mahindra CiE trading much higher PE ratio than its peer,so this one may also !!
Valuation :

Profit margin : 1.7%(big negative)

5 yr PAT caGr,income CaGr :18%, 15%
3 yr PAT cagR, income CagR: 17%,11%

2016-18 PAT,income CagR(expected) : 23%,25%

@429, 2017 PE 64,

2018 Q1 EPS 2.18, Estimated 7.5-9
Take 8 rs => 2018 PE : 53

Ind PE 53,but taking consideration of good growth,strong group, enrich mkt conditions, much more business opportunity to grow than former logistics company we may give xtra 5 PE to this one,

58*8 = 464(listing tgt)
60*8 = 480( till uttrayan)
Favorable statements:

Overall logistics ind to grow 13% caGr in nxt 3 yr, while 3PL ind to grow 21%cagr,

So good opportunity for mahindra logistics to use this growth and unlock it''''s true value.

If MLL can increase PAT margin just near 3% in coming yrs(After GST seems possible) , then MLL has set price band 30PE of 2019(attractive)!!
Allotment :

Nearly 1.97L forms reqd for 1x
Due to Nippon, khadim,niA and virtually higher price band expecting only 6-7L or below forms,
Allotment ratio may : 1/3 (Fair possibility/ almost confirmed, linkintime 😊)


Subscribe for short mid long term ,possible listing gain 1-1.5 FD!

For listing gain confirmation you may wait till 3rd day 1.30pm(to check subsc fig) or till SPT says avoid!!!

M applying in any cases.

Note : GMP going down steadily with low volume , may only stabilise near 20-25!!
2.4. gamble  Jan 13, 2018 2:06:42 PM IST

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

Everything is right in Mkt and war!!

*Just conditions apply - if growth increases, if govt policies not affects, everyone hold stocks, Promotor don''t play, + 100s of other conditions

BTW yes 850* coming on board but, you may have to have patience just like Nippon, godrej, lombard, capacite etc.

* condition applied. 😊
2.5. Aniketiaf  Jan 16, 2018 6:01:28 AM IST

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

Finally sold Mahendra logistics @ 550.
Now KHADIM is the only ipo allotted Share which is still in loss in my portfolio.
Thanks for your timely valuable guidance on all IPOs.
1. gamble  Jan 13, 2018 8:54:06 PM IST Reply

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

........... Newgen Software Technologies ........

- Platform provider to develop powerful software applications (which mainly use in banking,PSUs, insurance, BPO - IT)

- Revenue cAGr 21%
- PAT CagR 9%
- M.cap 1696cr(@245)
- ronw = 19%

Post issue equity 6,92,35,701.

2017 PAT 52,36,00,000rs
EpS 7.56 => PE : 32.4x.

2018 HY1 PAT 5.84cr(only!!)
EPS 0.99 =>Possible Full yr PAT 47cr(10% margin of 470cr revenue)

Full yr EPS 6.8 => PE : 36x

Margin are steadily on decline mode :


Peers in actual : None
Somewhat peers :

..................P/S......... PE........ PAT Cagr

Newgen...... 4x..........36.........9%
Mastek*..... 1.8x.........20........40%

Many other also available but mostly trading below 25PE/3x sales in this bull mkt also!!

* good pick in downsides

...... Evenif ipo came in bull mkt, looking at financials, above 30PE wouldn''t be appropriate for neWgen.

@30PE = 204rs + 10% of mkt = 225 Rs.(imo fair value)

Possible Listing = flat to negative, khadim/Shalby type..


Rii reqd 99k forms , if 6L come(yes possible, rii have good money in hand now a days!)...... Allotment ratio 1/6


One may Try to avoid even if subscription fig goes high !!

....... Consider above as an imo πŸ‘†........

9.4. RJ Rocks  Jan 14, 2018 11:01:10 AM IST

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

Thanks Gamble Sir for your valuable reply and guiding us.
9.5. RaviCH  Jan 14, 2018 5:06:39 PM IST

Newgen Software Technologies Limited IPO

Thank you very much sir for your valuable analysis. We cannot get this type of analysis anywhere for free. Thanks for being with us....
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