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51. gamble  Oct 20, 2017 5:01:10 PM IST Reply

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

............... Reliance Nippon AMC..............
________________________________________

=> 3rd largest MFs player by 11.5% mkt share
=> 2nd largest ETFs player with 25% mkt share
=> promoted by nippon life(125yr operating history-No 1 life insurance in asia & japan, AUM 30 lakh cr +) and R.cap
=> post issue both R.cap and nippon gonna hold 42.8% - 42.8%(so semi-professional management !!)
=> company planning to double branch network by 2021

AUM(Asset under management) of Reliance MF

1995..........2002...........2017
60cr.........2200cr........2,25,000cr+

_______________________________________
Last 5 yr........
AUM CAGR 22.2%
REVENUE CagR 18.2%
PAT CaGr 15%
PBT caGr 15%

Last 3 yr......
PAT CAGr 7%
PBT CAgR 12%
REVENUE caGr 22%

Last 3 yr PAT CAGR lower(than revenue) due to Marketing /publicity Expenditure jump dramatically,
2014/110cr..... 2017/390cr
(Yes u can hear/see their advertisements encouraging MF more often than others)

_______________________________________
Anil ji sold 51% in just 5 yrs(to save Rcom may b, vrna kaun sell krta hai aaisa business ko !!)

Buyer data :
Nippon life : 110rs average - 49% stack (2012/26%,2015/9%,2017/14%)
IIFL : 246rs - 2.5% stack(August 2017)

..... So issue price 252 is not that high! (bank FD bhi 7-8 yr me to double ho jata hai)
________________________________________
Valuation :

@252
2017 EPS 6.85 => PE : 37
2018 estimated PE => 35-36

Book value 31.7 rs=> PB : 7.9x

M.CAP post issue (@252) 15425cr, Networth 1892cr,
PAT 403cr,Revenue 1435cr,
Profit Margin 28%
Ronw 21%

=> M. Cap =11x revenue,
is not highly priced for MFs business imo.
(EV/sales =?, Ur task)

.... MF industry to Grow 20% CAGR in 2017-2022

So, mkt may/should give this industry to 45-50PE, 10-12PB

45PE = 308(listing day tgt)*

10PB = 317(till new year )
50PE = 342(till valentine''s day)
12PB = 380(till Rakhi)

_____________________________________
Allotment :

Nearly 3.63L forms required for 1x,
Looking at negativity(ADAG) among RII
Expecting only 10L forms i.e 1/2.75,

So Allotment ratio may come near 1/3 (Fair chance)

Should u sell on kostak?
If kostak 600, NO (u sold @283)
If kostak 700,NO(u sold @ 287)
If kostak 800,NO(u sold @ 292)

.... This price range depends on app wise subscription

U may sell if gets kostak 800+,like 900/1000 type.

____________________________________

ConcL(my view)


Biggest plus point is Nippon life, worst point is ADAG but still looking at the gem business segment(especially in 130cr people''s country, everyone planning to buy MFs now a days ) ,
U will not get this at below issue price on listing, listing gain imo should be atleast 2 FD !!













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51.6. AKH  Oct 21, 2017 2:36:48 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

About promoters

1. nippon life
(125yr operating history-No 1 life insurance in asia & japan, AUM 30 lakh cr +)
2. R.cap
LOL
there is nothing to write about 2nd promoter even u dind liked to write full name and group
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51.7. gamble  Oct 21, 2017 2:58:03 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

@AKH ji, hmm i should hv written, but
R.cap is indian company and listed long ago so i presumed everybody already know!

Here''s R.CAP

Reliance Capital, a constituent of Nifty Midcap 50 and MSCI Global Small Cap Index, is a part of the Reliance Group. It is amongst Indiaโ€™s leading and most valuable financial services companies in the private sector. Reliance Capital has interests in asset management and mutual funds; life, general and health insurance; commercial & home finance; equities and commodities broking; wealth management services; distribution of financial products; asset reconstruction; proprietary investments and other activities in financial services.

Reliance Mutual Fund is amongst the top Mutual Funds in India with over six million investor folios. Reliance Nippon Life Insurance and Reliance General Insurance are amongst the leading private sector insurers in India. Reliance Securities is one of the Indiaโ€™s leading retail broking houses and distributors of financial products and services. Reliance Money and Reliance Home Finance are one of the most rapidly expanding businesses in the lending space.

Reliance Capital has a net worth of Rs. 16,692 crore (US$ 2.6 Billion) and total assets of Rs.82,209 crore (US$ 12.6 Billion) as on March 31, 2017.

Full name :

R. Cap = Reliance Capital
ADAG = Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group
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50. gamble  Oct 17, 2017 6:48:05 PM IST Reply

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

.... maS Listing expectations...

Listing should be near/above 650 (imo)

My value for book profit was 630-650(stated in review also), above 650 it is bit expensive

BuT looking at the mkt trend it is okay that u get some greed ๐Ÿ˜Š


So Here''s the strategy for optimum gain(Imo) ,

Allotee

- Book half quantity profit in preopen/till 10.05am(at any listing range)

- Be invested with other half till 1 month or with 6-7% SL, whichever hits first

(means if listed @650 then sell half, wait for other half with possible tgt720/740 in month or if go down below 600(SL) , sell other half too)

NON Allotee

- firstly should not try to buy above 630(looking at valuation)
- if buy put SL and hold, Au type rally may come!(speculation does supports Financial stocks!!)
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50.7. gamble  Oct 18, 2017 2:19:56 PM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

720 is least we can expect AKH, punters play, enjoy
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50.8. Dev Chaudhary  Oct 18, 2017 2:58:26 PM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Wish you a very very happy diwali The Great Gamble Ipo guru ji!!
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49. gamble  Oct 12, 2017 4:48:03 PM IST Reply

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡This only happens if u become valuation choosy. .. !!

As expected lombard overtakes sbi life ๐Ÿ™‚

Life opens @740 now 685,
Lombard opens @650 now 700!

Refer this,

895. gamble Oct 3, 2017 5:31:19 PM IST 7 | Reply
IPO Guru (1300+ Posts, 1800+ Likes)

Do not hurry to buy sbi life...wait for 11 P/B entry (640) or 50 PE (626) or 10 P/B588 !!!!

And i still not understand why people in strange that sbi life not performing compare to icici lombard!!

Simple ans : valuation

FY Q1 EpS........
.
Sbi life = 3.13
Icici lombard = 4.73......

Lombard likely to overtake on price also imo..!!

Anyone seeing range of both like this? ?

Sbi life 700, lombard 700
Sbi life 680, lombard 710
Sbi life 650,lombard 720

Ultimate

Life 588,lombard 860! !! (same valuations PB)
Life 562,lombard 846!!! (same valuation PE)


Offcourse this msg is not after today''''s price movements.. Just telling valuation perspective! !
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49.12. IamAnkit  Oct 18, 2017 11:33:37 AM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

@gambleJi

To allotment nahi hua wo log itna sad and jinko allotment hua wo log itna khus kyon ho rahe hain jab kuchh profit hi nahi milne wala!
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49.13. sumitsubishi  Oct 18, 2017 1:05:34 PM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

I Did held on to ICICI Lombard since IPO due to comments like this. Will continue to hold for 2-3 years. May be more.
Keep on sharing the Good Work Mr. Gamble.
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48. gamble  Oct 18, 2017 10:09:40 AM IST Reply

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Do not scared of 40-50 rs movement kip strict sl 599 and hold for 700+....

Disc : alloted 32,sold half 16 @660
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48.4. Ankitxyz  Oct 18, 2017 10:41:36 AM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Agree gamblejiii...sold @660...not interested in speculative game
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48.5. gamble  Oct 18, 2017 11:14:20 AM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

@11.14AM Looking at CMP,

700+ today or tomorrow??
Kidding ๐Ÿ˜Š

Trail SL to 621 and go for 720!

Aim optimum!!
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47. gamble  Oct 17, 2017 7:07:14 PM IST Reply

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Bit disappointed with karvy first tym,

Alloted 02/07, (allotment ratio was 1/2 only! )
Was Hoping for 4/7 type



Anyway will buy some post listing.
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47.6. RJ Rocks  Oct 18, 2017 8:46:17 AM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Gamble sir
I got 2/4 Godrej
2/4 Mas and
1/3 in IEX.
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47.7. Cobra  Oct 18, 2017 10:28:53 AM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Me too. I generally get allotment. First time it happenef that I applied for more than 3 lots in Godrej Agrovet and did not get any allotment.

MAS was the same story.

Disappointed.
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46. gamble  Oct 17, 2017 4:33:20 PM IST Reply

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Many[RII] have sold icici lombard on listing day other hv sold due to sequential ipo is about to come,
but kash hold kiye hote!!

Decisively up 10% in 20 days, or 0.5% each day.

Result update(YOY) :

EPS 4.5 vs 3.80
PAT 204cr vs 171cr(up 19%)

Going at perfect speed,''''within 1 month'''' task(task no 2) has completed today,only tgt remains is now 810 i.e (13 % upside pending ) and it has 340 days(i.e each day 27 paisa!!) , let see if can complete or not

Refer this ๐Ÿ‘‡


20. gamble Sep 14, 2017 8:29:23 AM IST Reply
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO

... .... Lombard general insurance........

@661
2018 estimated EpS = 18-19 => PE : 37

06,2017 Bv 86. 54 => P/B : 7.6

BOTTOM LINE CAGR : 16%
TOP LINE CAGR : 24%

RONW = 18%

.....RII FORMS reqd near 14L..so yes full allotment under RII category.

...... No actual comparable peer but compare with prudential

..... ........ ...........prudential..... Lombard

, PAT CaGr : 4% 16%
, P/Bv : 10x 7.6X
, PE(2018) 36 37

, PE(2020) 33 27

........ So imo lombard general insurance ipo is fairly(if not attractive) priced given MKt conditions. Pru is lagging in terms of financials.

.......... Pru. Vs lombard is just like iphn 8 vs 10.....but All want 10 despite of valuation.

...... So @40 PE = 720* rs(within 1 mnth tgt if not listing)

@45PE = 810*rs(till 1 yr after listing)

* in my opinion only


.. .. ConcL.. .... ..

Short-mid-long term investment may consider.
Listing gain should be more than ยฝ FD imo.

7 day 3.5% return kaun deta hai bhai?? Or
365 days 23% return kaun deta hai bhai?
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46.4. gamble  Oct 17, 2017 7:16:53 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

@majitji All the very best to people talking 1.1k on listing (isn''t it bit earlier to talk)

@mittalji at present scenario sbi life is in no trade zone, will strt buying now onwards in downsides, hold (kip view mr thn 6-8 mnths, remove frm ur watchlist till 6 mnth, pretend that u never had sbi life till 6 mnths!!)
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46.5. Solution of Queries  Oct 17, 2017 9:40:45 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Yes really,,,interesting bet this time....waiting for GIC listing !!

A debeatable bet that was.......Lets see wht will happen on 25th oct.
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45. gamble  Oct 17, 2017 4:33:50 PM IST Reply

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO


Many[RII] have sold icici lombard on listing day other hv sold due to sequential ipo is about to come,
but kash hold kiye hote!!

Decisively up 10% in 20 days, or 0.5% each day.

Result update(YOY) :

EPS 4.5 vs 3.80
PAT 204cr vs 171cr(up 19%)

Going at perfect speed,''''within 1 month'''' task(task no 2) has completed today,only tgt remains is now 810 i.e (13 % upside pending ) and it has 340 days(i.e each day 27 paisa!!) , let see if can complete or not

Refer this ๐Ÿ‘‡


20. gamble Sep 14, 2017 8:29:23 AM IST Reply
ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO

... .... Lombard general insurance........

@661
2018 estimated EpS = 18-19 => PE : 37

06,2017 Bv 86. 54 => P/B : 7.6

BOTTOM LINE CAGR : 16%
TOP LINE CAGR : 24%

RONW = 18%

.....RII FORMS reqd near 14L..so yes full allotment under RII category.

...... No actual comparable peer but compare with prudential

..... ........ ...........prudential..... Lombard

, PAT CaGr : 4% 16%
, P/Bv : 10x 7.6X
, PE(2018) 36 37

, PE(2020) 33 27

........ So imo lombard general insurance ipo is fairly(if not attractive) priced given MKt conditions. Pru is lagging in terms of financials.

.......... Pru. Vs lombard is just like iphn 8 vs 10.....but All want 10 despite of valuation.

...... So @40 PE = 720* rs(within 1 mnth tgt if not listing)

@45PE = 810*rs(till 1 yr after listing)

* in my opinion only


.. .. ConcL.. .... ..

Short-mid-long term investment may consider.
Listing gain should be more than ยฝ FD imo.

7 day 3.5% return kaun deta hai bhai?? Or
365 days 23% return kaun deta hai bhai?
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44. gamble  Sep 28, 2017 9:20:18 AM IST Reply

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Strangely available below 670!!
But for how long?
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44.5. gamble  Oct 16, 2017 8:36:42 PM IST

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO

@Djds tomorrow is the result, let''s hope for best. Tgt is much higher than 700.
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44.6. Djds  Oct 17, 2017 1:08:13 PM IST

ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Gamble bhai ur target on icici lombard
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43. gamble  Oct 14, 2017 7:15:46 PM IST Reply

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

Not getting much time to see Nippon life ipo, but

These 2 ๐Ÿ‘‡( NoT professionally managed) company trading at attractive level [IMO]

Reliance Capital (540)...
PE =14,PB=1,Dividend yeild =2%, mcap 13k cr vs revenue 17k cr, CAgR=15%

Reliance Home F(82)..
CaGr PBT= 30%+

Combo pack @622rs

U can use dips also(if any)
Expected return till nippon listing 10%(not sure though)
Expected return over 6 mnths 20%(confident!!)


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43.6. Thakur Prasad  Oct 16, 2017 12:10:11 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

@Gamble Sir , I had bought relcap on 4th sep @873 i am in huge losses now. Do you think i ll be able to recover my losses . does this share price combined with rhfl will cross 873. Please help sir.
Regards,
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43.7. gamble  Oct 16, 2017 1:28:41 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

First thing, if u buy @873 must b in influence of TV experts recommendations [ not trying to prove anyone right wrong here]
Because they only give call when share in momentum and we always trap at higher level,

Now @532 looks good to me, try to avg(if possible) or just hold. Why get out at this rate,

U still holding then why calculate loss?
till date not hppns any!!

Yes i m seeing this combo above ur buying rate within yr time. Or Anilji ki mehrbani rhi to within 5-6 months may b!
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42. gamble  Oct 16, 2017 10:59:23 AM IST Reply

Godrej Agrovet Limited IPO

Holding 2 lot already, added some @566
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42.3. STOCKT  Oct 16, 2017 12:06:25 PM IST

Godrej Agrovet Limited IPO

absolutely correct gamble
some people are creating different ids and trying to create some negative views around godrej
they dont know the brand value

we should not listen to such fake people like solution of queries(who is creating different fake ids) and trying to crate negative sentiments around the stock
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42.4. Kenny  Oct 16, 2017 1:30:47 PM IST

Godrej Agrovet Limited IPO

Sir aap ka point of view sa he allotted lot hold rakha va ha, in every ipo i used to sell on listing day, but this time to create wealth i holded, stock surged down to 560s, i got bit uncomfortable, yet didn''t throw out by seeing your comment once again.. i want to go long in it.. #wealth_creator

Want to sail on a same boat with you sir.. :) :D
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41. gamble  Oct 15, 2017 9:38:08 PM IST Reply

Godrej Agrovet Limited IPO

aGrovet Listing expectations :

Near/above 600.

....... . if ipo allotee, Godrej agro is gem(5 in 1 business pack and all growing smoothly, even in 2 leader). .. U won''t get this type of business easily,

With 30% CaGr and godrej strong brand name,
50 PE is just fair = 50*14 =800(uttrayan tgt)

I might book some if it gets overvalued,
70+ PE = 1K(within 2018)

.........if no ipo allotee buy some at listing(good buy near/ below 600 if possible), avg some in downsides(M not seeing any though)

....... If Apply for listing gain then no comments.

Stay away frm listing day manipulation, it may require some time to rally smooth(after irritating u! ) ,but just hold on, U will get nothing compared to this in Ur bank FD(if planning to Fix frm agrovet amount)

Consider all above ๐Ÿ‘† as an '''' IMO ''''
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41.5. Kenny  Oct 16, 2017 8:42:04 AM IST

Godrej Agrovet Limited IPO

๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

Sir 1 lot aya ha, aap ka commment padh na bad to lag ta ha, uttrayan ka pehla bechna murkhai ka kaam hoga ๐Ÿ˜œ๐Ÿ˜œ

Investor friendly group and other positive comments. Holding this one for long now.

Thank you sir. ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿ™
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41.6. RJ Rocks  Oct 16, 2017 8:46:20 AM IST
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40. gamble  Oct 6, 2017 11:46:36 PM IST Reply

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

If after applying all ipos and doing shopping of Diwali u still remain with fund then only read ahead..... ๐Ÿ˜Š


4-7 Months holding needed. .. Expected return 3 former FD


IRB infra (209)
=> PE=9,PB=2.9, sales 5800cr, m. Cap 7300 cr, infra play.

TalwalkaRs(266)
=> PE=12,PB=1.6,CAGr =20%,margin =23%
A GYM play

GHCL(209)
=> PE=4, revenue 2800 cr m. Cap 2000cr,caGr=50% (!!), A chemical play


.... Above all 3 r irritating stock, without any mkt effect, so patience needed for a meaningful return...


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40.6. anubhavP  Oct 11, 2017 11:31:28 AM IST

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Thanks Gamble sir for quick response....i will wait 1 more year.....
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40.7. Djds  Oct 14, 2017 3:16:49 PM IST

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Gamble bhai new to market .can u tell me some companies where i can invest .with high returns within 4-6 months
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39. gamble  Oct 13, 2017 3:45:48 PM IST Reply

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

At the very first day suggested that this gonna flop show. 45 rs was the only attraction here

Questioned govt decisions why this much delay for this giant ipo. Should hv listed decade ago.

Some of forum members suggested that big foreign institutions will die to subscribe GiC, but now @3.45 it not seems!! No one dieing!!

Even my expectation was NII may subscribe in RII for discount sake but that also not seems like happning.

Lic(Finance Ministry) played big with wrong hype imo.

Still lets hope whoever applied get some profit on listing!
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39.6. gamble  Oct 13, 2017 4:46:17 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Sales of 11k cr trading at 77k cr m.cap , PB 20,not cheap bet, short term nothing to gain at CMP imo , given CAgR 50% it may reward good if can hold for long.
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39.7. Solution of Queries  Oct 13, 2017 5:28:35 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Dmart must be in FNO in short term !! waiting for it...........
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38. gamble  Oct 3, 2017 5:31:19 PM IST Reply

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Do not hurry to buy sbi life...wait for 11 P/B entry (640) or 50 PE (626) or 10 P/B588 !!!!

And i still not understand why people in strange that sbi life not performing compare to icici lombard!!

Simple ans : valuation

FY Q1 EpS........
.
Sbi life = 3.13
Icici lombard = 4.73......

Lombard likely to overtake on price also imo..!!

Anyone seeing range of both like this? ?

Sbi life 700, lombard 700
Sbi life 680, lombard 710
Sbi life 650,lombard 720

Ultimate

Life 588,lombard 860! !! (same valuations PB)
Life 562,lombard 846!!! (same valuation PE)


Offcourse this msg is not after today''s price movements.. Just telling valuation perspective! !

Refer this earlier msg,,,





18. gamble Sep 16, 2017 9:58:53 AM IST Reply
SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

....SBi life insurance.....

Premium CAgR : 20%
REVENUE : 20%
NET PROFIT : 11%

@700
...BASED on 2017 PE 73
.... BASED on 2018 Expected EPS :12-13
(Q1 EPS 3.12)
=> PE = 54-58

.....2019 PE 48
.....2020 PE 40 (20% growth given)

BV on 06,2017 58.79rs = P/Bv 12x

... ................... Sbi life........ Icici pru......Lombard*
.. ...
CAGR PAT...... ... 11%.............4%.......... 16%
PE(2018).............58...............35........ ...37
PB....................... 12...... ....... 9.5......... .7.6

* lombard is not peer but taken just for valuation comparison.

... So IMO lombard is best choice among all 3 looking at valuation.

......in rii category 19L + forms req so full subscription is not possible appwise under Rii.. Mean full allotment.

....... SBI LIFE GENERAL INSURANCE asking PE 73, Pb 12x based on only 11% CAgR...!!
.....grossly overpriced!!

RII to IPOs - '''' you ask for milk, we''''ll give you pudding,'''''''' but just go on ''''!!

.. ..imo Despite of good mkt share, strong brand name, healthy mkt conditions, future growth, growing business, at this price all Sizzles are priced in (even for 2018/19 also)

Fair value 45-50 PE for 2018 = 540- 600 Rs


..... ConcL. ....

Sell on kostak(now down but wait for some upwards 800-900 best sell), otherwise skip and buy(not mandatory) after a good correction. Or
Subscribe for 1.5-2 yrs.
Listing gain(2-4%) as per current gmp is possible but i m not seeing any!!.
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38.4. Djds  Oct 12, 2017 12:45:27 PM IST

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Gamble bhai should i hold sbi life or sell it .
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38.5. gamble  Oct 12, 2017 4:40:07 PM IST

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Why sell now,? EARLIER given sell on listing day itself, if want urgent money then sell, otherwise hold, keep ur view more than 6-8 months, avg in downsides (if possible)
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37. gamble  Oct 7, 2017 12:25:08 AM IST Reply

Worth Peripherals Ltd IPO

Why fall in trap of 100-150-200 PE while u have available much better option frm secondary mkt with some what comparable model.

KwaLity ltd (102)

M. Cap 2440 cr vs sales 6800+ cr, PE below 20
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37.5. gala  Oct 11, 2017 11:35:09 PM IST

Worth Peripherals Ltd IPO

Hahahahah gamble Bhai true that !! Then I think we should buy together only ๐Ÿ˜‚ any more stock you want me to buy ?? ๐Ÿ˜Ž
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37.6. gamble  Oct 12, 2017 10:25:25 AM IST

Worth Peripherals Ltd IPO

Right now, vijaya bank attracting me and also it has support near 52 zone, 25-30% looks sureshort if can hold for 6-8months.
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36. gamble  Oct 11, 2017 5:47:02 PM IST Reply

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Were Little bit busy this hours, but many msg seen like withdrawn application.. M asking for why? What''s ur calculations behind this?
U planning to buy some share frm secondary with the same amount???

Just because u can''t face 2-5% listing losses! if buy any share in secondary mkt and go down
Then u sell immediately???? Or
That never happened that ur brought share went down!

Ur ans would : why block money if share gonna possibly available on discount? Or will buy in downsides etc

Same positive view given in icici lombard and that available on listing day at discount, but very few got the opportunity (who not applied) to buy below issue price and currently that same trading at 4% up!!

People(who withdrawn) to ieX : you gonna available at much discount after listing why we should block our money now

IEX (replying) : see on listing, u traitors ๐Ÿ˜Ž

Btw IEx got more qib then Apex(issue were 150cr only) !!

So just chill!


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36.6. gamble  Oct 11, 2017 11:25:57 PM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

@jatan don''t kn about others, they may hv subscribe heavily or just try to jealous withdrawn people ๐Ÿ˜Š

I given my positive view on 6th oct.
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36.7. Navkant  Oct 12, 2017 1:03:37 AM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Prataap looked expensive to me. Withdrew my 8 applications at 2PM last day against GMP. Learnt my lesson, I skipped this in absence of GMP. Not looking forward to learn another lesson :/
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35. gamble  Oct 8, 2017 7:15:34 PM IST Reply

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

............ GiC - The big boy........
Slogan - เค†เคชเคคเฅเค•เคพเคฒเฅ‡ เคฐเค•เฅเคทเคฟเคทเฅเคฏเคพเคฎเคฟ


Ratings
: A - '''' Excellent '''' by AM best(a USA rating firm)
: AAA by CARE

.... ... PRESIDENT(The Promoter) diluting 14.5% shares in this offer which brought @25 Paisa per share !!

..... GiC Premium growth in segment like motor, fire, marine etc increased 5-10% over last 3 yr, But strangely agricultural premium climed from 544 cr to 9073 cr( Thanks to present govt!)

PAT caGr = 6%(last 5yr),
......... .... 4%(last 3yr)

______-_______________________________=_______

@867 rs(RII price)

2017 EPS 36.52 => PE =24 (good!)

But,.... but,..... but

2018 EPS 29.24(mentioned in RhP, low due to FY18Q1 lower profit)

=> PE =29.7

NAV(BV) on june 2017 = 234.22 rs,
=> P/B ratio = 3.7x


________________________________________________
No comparable peers, but somewhat similar businesses like lombard

.... Firstly u can''t compare directly with private firm(lombard), so here hudco(just for fun)(HF psu player) taken along with a lombard for better understanding


............ ...... GiC............. Lombard.......... Hudco

PAT caGr..... 4%. ................ 16%.............4.5%
PB(2018...... 3.8................... 7.8...............1.8
PE(2018....... 30.....................37................20

Concl frm above table :
1) lombard growing 4x then GiC, plus it''s private firm so PE, PB commendable should be high obviously , imo should be 2-3 times, hence GiC is not cheaper then lombard (imo)
2) Buy HudCo at CMP(83) for better gain then GiC over a yr, available at much comfortable level

___________________________________________
...... GiC''s 2018 yr gonna give it 1-2% CAGR over 3 yr(not good!), Expected PAT Lower then 2017

.... Ronw also seeing step back

........ ..2015......2016.......2017...... 2018
........... 19%........16.2%.... ..16%.......12.4%

...... Imo being a Wholly owned by government firm and FLAT growth , 30 PE, 4PB is
# fully priced.

If ipo comes at price of 25PE my views would hv different

i.e 25*29.4 = 735(15% less) [My Fair value]

.. ...... RII full allotment is confirmed(11.7K cr issue man!) , many decided to apply for max application i.e 2L (after seeing sbilife 5% listing gain) but i suggest to think twice abot that!!!
________________________________________________

Concl...

Being a PSU firm and discussed parameters above, issue seems to b fully price,

My view :
- Avoid or
- Apply with sell in kostak, subject to or
- subscribe for Atleast 1.5 yr

...... If want earn more than GiC over medium term then U may Prefer stock given on sbi life thread, or
Buy hudco at CMP or BuY lombard at CMP or even u can buy sbi life after some corrections

.. If u already decided firmly to apply then go ahead, as per current grey u can earn 2-3% on listing(on 867rs)

....... GiC should hv come up with ipo earlier, why this much delay, and why suddenly came up frm nowhere ๐Ÿ˜•

Note : Above all views/recommendations are my personal opinions, take decision only as per ur personal opinions ๐Ÿ˜Š

...................................... ..........................................

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35.18. Jootha  Oct 10, 2017 6:57:57 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

I cover Insurance market as an analyst. As far as growth prospect are concerned, most of you dont even know international market and GIC''s dominance there. In domestic market, there is a huge opportunity. GIC is a re insurer and Primary insurers will always need them. Please look at the international trends especially after hurricanes in US which will result in hard market cycle. (looking at profit and arriving at ratios is incorrect method for insurance companies) Solvency ratios are better and geographical diversification will fuel growth for 3-5 years.
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35.19. gamble  Oct 10, 2017 7:17:54 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

@jootha ji hugh opportunity is there but imo seems not for psu firm/ private firm like lombard may grow exponentially, otherwise why growth flat till date??
Btw i m not here to convince anybody to apply or not just putting my views!

@ 1/cosTheta ji i m not active even a bit in SME, so i think no need, just put msg here if any!
avatar
34. gamble  Oct 10, 2017 12:54:35 PM IST Reply

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

It''s really good to see that rii not subscribing heavily.. Allotment chances may improve further
Like 1/1.5 to 1/2.....keep doing good work rii๐Ÿ˜‰

But 1/1 aa jaye to aur bhi maja ! !
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34.3. MickeyP  Oct 10, 2017 2:35:06 PM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Totally agree with you Gamble sir! The possibility of getting allotment in this IPO is very high. I also applied yesterday first thing in the morning.
avatar
34.4. Sanja  Oct 10, 2017 2:58:08 PM IST

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd IPO

Gambleji are you expecting any listings gain?
avatar
33. gamble  Oct 9, 2017 10:35:10 PM IST Reply

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Sometimes it''s really need a '' A true ipo guru'' that can guide u properly.

Missing septa sir!

Vacation ends or not !
avatar
33.3. gamble  Oct 9, 2017 11:27:52 PM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Firstly i m not jain ( u should get it after seeing my positive views on apex and godrej!!)
And secondly vipul name is lame no offence but it just lame๐Ÿ˜Š

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33.4. Arup jamshed  Oct 10, 2017 12:48:07 AM IST

General Insurance Corporation of India IPO

Gamble Sir ,sorry,
I got the point ,Jain bipul copy n paste ur comments about GIC In chanakya.
Again sorry .
avatar
32. gamble  Oct 5, 2017 12:21:28 PM IST Reply

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

..... mAs financial.......
(power of distribution !! )

Top/bottom CAGR 26%
AuM caGr 33%

Net NPA 1.1%

Only NBFc not like Au, ujji, equitas bank!

Many peer available but not single at this range, mean below 100 cr pat, cagr, npa level

Lets compare with near peer m&m, and Bharat fin.

................. ... PE........ PB..... NpA....pat growth(3 yr)

Bharat fin...... 45.......5.35..... 6%........54%
M&M..............48........3.50.....9%........(-30%)
MAs...............28........7..........1.1%....... 70%

MaS growing at healthy rate because of it''s size, less AUm.

... Q1 Fy 18 EPS 5.04,Annualised full yr 20-22
Take 21 => PE 22(@459)
..... BV 77+ (as per june 2017) => PB 5.9



.....imo mkt may give PE of 30, PB 8 based on 2018

30 PE = 630 or
8 PB = 620

...... Concl..... ..

Allotment tough only 1.1L needed for 1x,so ratio may come near 1/10, 1/11 type,posible listing gain 25 % +... In any mkt condition.

Subscribe for 2-3 month or until u gets 630/50 + price(for 2017).


avatar
32.13. Shivajee  Oct 8, 2017 7:56:15 PM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Thanks gamble and Uchit Patel for building confidence.

In trading, its our attitude that matters most than losses or profits.

"We can not sell every single stock by thinking like this". This is what I got the meaning for the hindi words as translation.

At the time of Gulf vs US, I did not know what is a share or trading. Anyways, I take your experienced opinions religiiously, I will forget the political jokes now.

Gamble, what are the good funda stocks that I can enter now? I am eyeing Venkys, Tata coffee etc. Do you suggest any?

avatar
32.14. Silapathar  Oct 9, 2017 9:51:42 PM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

@Gamble, how does the P/E of MAS for FY 2017 come out to be 28. Have you considered equity dilution w.r.t the offer. As per my calculation, it comes out to be around 36
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