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gamble's Comments

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35. gamble  Aug 11, 2017 9:52:50 AM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

As suggested sell in kostak many times. .for me i sold it @580(in 1.1k kostak 5 app alloted 1)
So this range of opening is buy for me.
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34. gamble  Aug 11, 2017 9:45:58 AM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Poorest listin...of all time.
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33. gamble  Aug 11, 2017 8:38:37 AM IST Reply

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Only My view :

SGX showing 100 minus nifty(nasdaq down 2% ysterday )

Nifty first support level near 9730/9670

So M gonna take call Today on some highly oversold good share( lucky to book profit before fall near 9.93k)

Plus SBIN/BOB results today and if you see most time after Sbin result Psu bnk changes their charts :-)


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33.1. gamble  Aug 11, 2017 9:24:21 AM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Taken fresh position in psu bnk(union,bob),share like capital first also and averaging idfc combo, pfs, kiri
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32. gamble  Aug 10, 2017 9:54:10 AM IST Reply

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

SiS Missed listing price by 20 paisa. ..sorry for that...!!!!
Predicted 880(before 4 days of issue opens) but NSE showing 879.8 ....FD return done dana done despite of overvalued and no NII fear. Cheers !!

27. gamble Jul 27, 2017 11:07:11 AM IST Reply
Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

......SiS India ltd.. .....

@ 815 EPS 13.29..., PE 61+

Que : whether it valued at fair valuation or not (if peer ignored )..

.ANS : NO

But with peer ANS : might be YES

.............peer comparison. .........

Below r quess plus point

...............................quess.. .........SIS

Profit margin.. .....2.17%...............2%
Current ratio .........2.16.................1.48
Top line CAGR......28%..................20%
Bottom line............27%..................13%
(bot CAGR for 2015-17......if take 2013-17 then quess is very much outperforming sis)

.....below are sis strong point

EPS CAGR.. ........12%.....................20%
PE ratio.. .............95.......................62
PB ratio.. .............13.3....................10.3
Ronw. .................13.56%..............16.8%

So yes bothside cons-pros.. ..other peer(if) teamlease valuationwise cheaper than both..!!


.....so here quess trading 95 PE ...while sis price 62 PE.. .. poor performance of sis can cancel out by this 35% less PE of SIS...is million $ que?? ?

.......RII forms req = 53k....

Due to cochin as the same time many RII decided to skip this(because of valuation and main cochin providing 1k+ kostak)

So imo RII appwise may remain same in both ipo = 5X(2.7 L forms in sis expected )

Or 6x(3.2L)

NII good subsc. possible.

...if take 20% every yr.. ...
@815

2017 PE 62
2018 PE 51
2019 PE 43
2020 PE 35

...so@815 for 2018 EPS 16 near PE =50+

For 55PE =880 (listing*)
60 PE = 960

So till 2018 880-960 type may possible(if nifty 10.1k then why can''''t sis 55-60 PE? )


So i m applying targeting only FD(7%)type listing gain......... Which is more than good each day 1%...!!

(if any cases this not hppn(listin gain)......then yes will do same as doing in FD after fixed.. !!)

............................................................
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32.8. Kenny  Aug 10, 2017 10:50:45 AM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Thank you gamble sir for your 575 rs. figure. Boosted me somewhat. :-D
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32.9. Kenny  Aug 10, 2017 3:11:10 PM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Gamble ji is toot ta va market ma, aapki kya rae ha cochin ka lia ??

Kitna par list hoga Cochin. 😅😅

Ab to tension ho rae ha. 😓😓
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31. gamble  Aug 7, 2017 10:03:02 AM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

.....“Earth provides enough to satisfy every man''s needs, but not every man''s greed.” .....


So called rural HDFC bank(AU small bank) of next generation cracking worse than any hugh NPA psu bank..!

Rii trapped again like ujjivan at higher levels.. .!!


27.5. gamble Jul 10, 2017 12:14:22 PM IST
Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Look like "pandit" try to exit at higher level.
Same pandits were comparing ujjivan growth to infy growth @540 now none of them are available @320

It can/cannot be hdfc baad ki bat.. But at this value for this FY AU looks scaring valuation wise.good luck.




25.1. gamble Jul 17, 2017 10:21:09 AM IST
Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

It will find it''''s true value near below 500 if not soon then at time of market correct.. No need to post msg with price at every second AARTIIJi.

1280. gamble Jul 11, 2017 9:57:40 AM IST 8 | Reply
IPO Guru (1200+ Posts, 1300+ Likes)
Just quick update :

AUSFB(570)just crossed "The bajaj fin" p/bv
And thus becomes highest overvalued share among peers including private bank and housing fin companies.

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31.10. gamble  Aug 7, 2017 3:29:16 PM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

BSE> get quote > AUBANK

http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-price/au-small-finance-bank-ltd/aubank/540611/
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31.11. Silapathar  Aug 7, 2017 11:16:21 PM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

It looked over valued even at the IPO price, fair value is 300. 1 bad result and it will start falling.
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30. gamble  Aug 1, 2017 8:40:06 AM IST Reply

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Secondary mkt recomandation for 3 FD

http://www.chittorgarh.com/newportal/Discussions.asp?forum_id=35
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30.8. gamble  Aug 7, 2017 12:13:21 PM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Booking profit is individual decision...!
If played for short term with big quantity then up of 5-7% in 1 day is good. Otherwise hold for medium term.
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30.9. AdiMann  Aug 7, 2017 12:26:30 PM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

bought @ 317 and booked profit @ 335.6
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29. gamble  Aug 2, 2017 11:21:39 AM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Cochin shipyard : Hudco part 2

Bade bade premium and opening at 80% of premium(imo)

Kostak buyers may get nothing on listing !!
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29.1. gamble  Aug 3, 2017 1:04:02 PM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Looking overwhelmed response of RII.. .kostak may reduce 200 rs from current rate.
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28. gamble  Aug 1, 2017 8:35:27 AM IST Reply

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

Secondary mkT recommendation for 3 FD

http://www.chittorgarh.com/newportal/DiscView.asp?mid=12750&forum_id=35&
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28.2. gamble  Aug 1, 2017 8:42:37 AM IST

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

See this link only :-)


http://www.chittorgarh.com/newportal/Discussions.asp?forum_id=35
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27. gamble  Jul 27, 2017 11:07:11 AM IST Reply

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

......SiS India ltd.. .....

@ 815 EPS 13.29..., PE 61+

Que : whether it valued at fair valuation or not (if peer ignored )..

.ANS : NO

But with peer ANS : might be YES

.............peer comparison. .........

Below r quess plus point

...............................quess.. .........SIS

Profit margin.. .....2.17%...............2%
Current ratio .........2.16.................1.48
Top line CAGR......28%..................20%
Bottom line............27%..................13%
(bot CAGR for 2015-17......if take 2013-17 then quess is very much outperforming sis)

.....below are sis strong point

EPS CAGR.. ........12%.....................20%
PE ratio.. .............95.......................62
PB ratio.. .............13.3....................10.3
Ronw. .................13.56%..............16.8%

So yes bothside cons-pros.. ..other peer(if) teamlease valuationwise cheaper than both..!!


.....so here quess trading 95 PE ...while sis price 62 PE.. .. poor performance of sis can cancel out by this 35% less PE of SIS...is million $ que?? ?

.......RII forms req = 53k....

Due to cochin as the same time many RII decided to skip this(because of valuation and main cochin providing 1k+ kostak)

So imo RII appwise may remain same in both ipo = 5X(2.7 L forms in sis expected )

Or 6x(3.2L)

NII good subsc. possible.

...if take 20% every yr.. ...
@815

2017 PE 62
2018 PE 51
2019 PE 43
2020 PE 35

...so@815 for 2018 EPS 16 near PE =50+

For 55PE =880 (listing*)
60 PE = 960

So till 2018 880-960 type may possible(if nifty 10.1k then why can''t sis 55-60 PE? )


So i m applying targeting only FD(7%)type listing gain......... Which is more than good each day 1%...!!

(if any cases this not hppn(listin gain)......then yes will do same as doing in FD after fixed.. !!)

............................................................


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27.7. KRB  Jul 27, 2017 11:53:05 PM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Nice analysis...

But this company doesn''t have any listed peers.

This cannot be compared to Quess or Teamlease as the business model is quite different.

Its very surprising that 60X to 100x has become new norm for this market.

Just 3-4 years back quality small cap and mid cap were trading at 6x to 10x (Voltas, cera, escorts, symphony, and many more). Canfin homes was trading at 0.5x boók value but no retail were buying this stock.

Today everyone is flocking to buy at 60x to 100x.

But what really surprising to me is some quality stock at dirt cheap valuation even though nifty trading at 25x.

I am buying JP associates (high risk stock so no tips from me.. Do your own research) as I think some momentum stock can fetch good returns.

Novices tend to become Warren buffet in this kind of market and when they lose money these buffets blame SEBI. They don''t understand what goes into finding a good stock for long term.

No one complaining as market touching new high everyday. But the same people will curse SEBI when market comes down.(Reasons are same for upside and downside)

Note: I am avoiding this IPO because the fair value is way beyond its IPO price.

Hope GMP as of today comes true and people INVESTING(trading) in this IPO make some money.
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27.8. gamble  Jul 28, 2017 8:09:56 AM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

YES IF one can''t hold for 1 or more yr sis then risky bet indeed(if not listing gain).. (one should not try to play for just 7 days when listing gain is not sure that''s why FD mentioned )

Imo sis is growing company and if goes down after listing then it will find it''s value in 2018...!

Plus i hv some cash surplus at this moment (due to good profit booking in secondary mkt. ..before 10k.. My bad...!!)
So instead of doing FD i would like to prefer sis.

....regarding secondary mkt.. ...

M goes with this strategy ..and till now it''s working optimally fine.

- when mkt dip down. ...buy smallcap,circular stock(or below 10/20 rs stock)
- when nifty trying reversal(like from low up 4-5%)....buy Midcap
-when at pick (or youthink at pick)....buy large cap with low down side risk


......and regarding fundamental strong /below fair value stock u can buy at anywhere and accumulate in dwnside.


...jpa, unitech, hdil,indiabull real my favorite pick before 2-3 months(mentioned in forum also) but now i won''t say even okay type pick...JP all group in "Laav laav Teji" but against my strategy. ..!
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26. gamble  Jul 26, 2017 7:06:17 PM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

.........Cochin shipyard ltd.. ......


@411 , EPS 27.56 PE =15 ,P/B = 2.3

Top line CAGR(2013 - 17) = 4%
Bottom line CAGR (2013-17) = 5.7%

So that might okay type growth for any other companies
But must be "Good " for any PSU.
(most of PSU growing in single digit or even negative except few midcap psu ..)

Peers are making not only loss..but making "growing loss" that is advantage for this one may be ..!!

...Last listed PSU hudco also enjoying PE 20 ..with 5% growth in TOP/bottom line(almost same as Cochin)

...so it is possible that Cochin trade near 18-20 PE( 522-550) in 2017

................As kostak near 1k one should sell?. ......
Ans : depends

RII forms req. For 1X = 3.9L

So if 16L = 4x appwise
....if 20L = 5x appwise

Current Kostak is 900-1000

So if u hv 5 app and sell in kostak then indirectly u sold CSL @570+(21PE)

For 4 app @540+

(In above assumed u got only 1)


Conclusion :

4 or 5 accountwale :::: for optimum profit one may sell in kostak @1k (preferably @1100/1200 if possible )

1/2/3 appwale :::: Apply and check ur luck(or u can always sell in kostak if u can''t even trust ur own luck. ...!!!!)

Expected listing= 520/25*near



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26.3. gamble  Jul 27, 2017 11:12:26 AM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Just crap info:

Sold 6 app in kostak and now hoping for no allotment /or just 1 is okay.
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26.4. jigi  Jul 27, 2017 4:34:54 PM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Hi gamble , what is PE 20 I am new to stock market please explain me .
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25. gamble  Jul 25, 2017 11:17:41 AM IST Reply

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

When i joined this Forum lot members contributing very Finley but suddenly they stopped doing so.. I wonder why....but today got the answer(after 2 yr.. !!)

Normal contra view,different view from different members,a healthy discussions is fair and okay,but this is unacceptable.

If FORUM MODULATOR can''t keep this forum clean, keep this nuisance away and provide a good platform for members to give their views

make forum clean it''s all FORUM MODULATOR has to do..If he/they can''t even do that .

No point of contributing further.
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25.1. ANIL VERMA  Jul 25, 2017 7:37:18 PM IST

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

Every person has the right to praise or differ with the opinion/advice given in a respectable manner. It is stock market and no body is able to predict exactly what is in store. Expers recommends shares which have gone high. When the innocent investor is caught n suffers loss, they say you have bought at the highest price. Shares move on tje euphoria created by the media and so called experts.
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25.2. Arup jamshed  Jul 25, 2017 8:17:56 PM IST

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

Agree 100%
U can noticed that Uchit Patel ,Chemcho,CLD ,RKS,Bangaloor ipo, ipo king n CA Sahab r not active today.even Eagleye r not as active as before.
Sir please continue
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24. gamble  Jul 24, 2017 4:31:36 PM IST Reply

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

Salasar techno.. ...

0/6....

.....listing may happen near above 170 but
NAM(not alloted members ) should not try to buy at any opening range(strong No if open above 170 ).let it move out of T-group first and declare this quarter result.

Imo.
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24.16. ANIL VERMA  Jul 25, 2017 11:55:29 AM IST

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

You predicted rightly. Congrats
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24.17. IPOInvestorLady  Jul 25, 2017 12:10:41 PM IST

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

@AARTI and all those who are writing hatred msgs,

These ppl have earned IPO GURU with their positive contribution . Lets first see your positive contribution , If you are that good start suggesting and help people , get them make profit. If you do, ppl will start trusting you too. Until that time, DO NOT PISS OFF people who are contributing good. We are getting their suggestions and making the profit. Try appreciating their work . If you dont trust them , simply ignore their comments but let other ppl get benefited at least.
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23. gamble  Jul 23, 2017 10:54:09 AM IST Reply

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Quess is at 99+ PE because of,,

last 2 yr CAGR

...........................quess.... ........sis
Bottom line .......27%..............13%
Top line.............29%................20%

Also Quess can cont. Outperform SIS(if comparison is right)..

.so,, SIS may not deserve this high PE 100

Plus Quess ipo 317 i.e ipo time only 45+PE

Sis ipo 815 so already 62 PE( greedy.. !!)

......so if this 815 ipo price than return will not more then 2-3FD .
Market playing imp role in price band.
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23.2. Uchit Patel  Jul 23, 2017 11:10:11 AM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Absolutely right gamble. Quess is totally different than SIS. Quess deserves high P/E because of high growth.

SIS is asking very P/E. Please be cautious before applying.
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23.3. Rakshit  Jul 23, 2017 11:32:23 AM IST

Security and Intelligence Services (India) Ltd IPO

Quess went at 45 times PE but moved up 60% on day1. So it was seriously undervalued and hence got a steep jump on Day 1. One can''t expect that windfall every time. And you are not comparing like to like. SIS PAT will also improve after interest repayments as they are saying in their objects. So that is why EBITDA should be looked at - for the same EBITDA at 223 cr, with a better ROCE and RONW, SIS is going at a 50% discount. No brainer in my view.
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22. gamble  Jul 18, 2017 9:05:04 AM IST Reply

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Due to lot of msgs in forum it is obvious that people misses important msg so second time posting.. ..

23.1. gamble Jul 14, 2017 7:42:37 AM IST
Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

BUT now you should fear.. .!!

Now at every nifty(from 9.9k)upside profit taking may come.

yes there will be always some stock specific rally.


.....result season already started
.....We all kn how''''s gonna result
......GST Maze


Support level of nifty (if down)

1) 9670
2) 9480
3) 9430
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22.8. gamble  Jul 20, 2017 11:15:04 AM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Ujjivan hold for medium term.. or u can play in 20-30% range

Others 2 are "can''t able to comment "

But if i hv to buy then wil buy at
judo(!!) < 78
CDSL< 320/00
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22.9. Newcomer  Jul 21, 2017 1:17:36 PM IST

Cochin Shipyard Ltd IPO

Gamble ji.
Can I buy omkar chemical?
What will be the target for 1 month?
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21. gamble  Jul 11, 2017 9:57:40 AM IST Reply

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Just quick update :

AUSFB(570)just crossed "The bajaj fin" p/bv
And thus becomes highest overvalued share among peers including private bank and housing fin companies.
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21.22. Sanja  Jul 14, 2017 2:03:27 PM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Look like AU will settled around it''s listing rate.
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21.23. ARATII  Jul 14, 2017 2:05:05 PM IST
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20. gamble  Jul 14, 2017 9:37:53 AM IST Reply

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Now it''s time for BSE to blast like a king. Above all resistance level.
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20.2. gamble  Jul 14, 2017 9:44:35 AM IST
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20.3. gamble  Jul 14, 2017 9:45:41 AM IST
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19. gamble  Jul 14, 2017 7:27:30 AM IST Reply

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

As expected Nifty/sensex at all time high.

At thetime of GST people feared crack in mkt may come but Nooo.

Below stocks provided/providing a good return i.e psu bk(1 FD)and ujjivan( 2 FD)
In just 15 days. Offcourse not good as THE GREAT IPOs


9. gamble Jun 27, 2017 10:24:24 PM IST Reply
Tejas Networks Limited IPO

Don''''t kn whether CMP 263 is buy/hold for TN.but people here waiting for 50% upside.I shall request them to reconsider their view.This much positivity? ?

Nifty50 at very crucial level. it may recover and hit record high again imo in short term. Or shall sink to 9100/8900 levels.

Below are the stocks which can b bought at this level for short term(kip sl) or med term(kip buy in small lot(2/3)at considerable dwnside)


BOB
PNB
Allahabad bnk
Ujjivan


Better than tejas. .isn''''t it??
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19.1. gamble  Jul 14, 2017 7:42:37 AM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

BUT now you should fear.. .!!

Now at every nifty(from 9.9k)upside profit taking may come.

yes there will be always some stock specific rally.


.....result season already started
.....We all kn how''s gonna result
......GST Maze


Support level of nifty (if down)

1) 9670
2) 9480
3) 9430
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18. gamble  Jul 12, 2017 9:13:15 AM IST Reply

Salasar Techno Engineering Ltd IPO

.....Salasar techno engineering. ....

Only 13300 near forms req for 1x in Rii

So if only 5L forms(expectating below that) comes then also 37X appwise.. ..

So rare chance of allotment.

Last YR EPS 20.83 so PE only 5.2 ...and that is the only reason for apply.

Can easily trade 8-10 PE
...@ 8 PE = 166 RS..

So listing gain/short term gain is sureshot if alloted.
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17. gamble  Jul 10, 2017 12:19:24 PM IST Reply

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Once Gandhiji said

"Earth provides enough to satisfy every man''s needs, but not every man''s greed .”

!!
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17.6. kabra  Jul 10, 2017 1:57:51 PM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Thanks. Just for information Oil India has a dividend yield of 4.5% at CMP and play on crude oil volatility.
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17.7. gamble  Jul 10, 2017 2:05:21 PM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Yeah i kn that kabra ji.. But as of now not tracking it closely .I mean technically.
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16. gamble  Jul 10, 2017 10:25:52 AM IST Reply
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16.2. vkvkgupta  Jul 10, 2017 10:27:46 AM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Pre-open has started now. Normal trading starts at 10:45.
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16.3. gamble  Jul 10, 2017 10:28:47 AM IST

Au Financiers (India) Limited IPO

Affirmative @vkvkguptaji.
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