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gamble's Comments

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47. gamble  Nov 28, 2017 11:35:42 PM IST Reply

Shalby Limited IPO

......... Shalby Multispeciality Hospital. .........

Good presence in gujarat, total 841 beds, 9 fully operating hospitals,
Good speciality in orthopaedic, replacement joint surgeries.

Future plan - setting up new hospitals at Nashik and Vadodara(till 2019)

In March 2017, they set up three new hospitals, Shalby Jaipur, Shalby Naroda, and Shalby Surat, which had an aggregate bed capacity of 747 beds, which have commenced providing inpatient services from April, 2017, July, 2017 and August, 2017, respectively.

@ upper band m.cap 2670cr

REVENUE caGr(5 yr): 9.5%, (3 yr) : 6%
PAT Cagr(5 yr) : 38% , (3 yr) : 33%
PBT caGr (5 yr) : 30% , (3 yr) : 7%

Revenue, PBT parallel but PAT swinging widely last 3 year, specially 2016 to 17, just before of an ipo
shalby ''s CA must b good at financing and taxation!!!


................. PE(17)..... P/S...... REVENUE CAGR

N.H.............73........ .2.9x.......19%
APOLLO......71........ .2.3x.......18%
HCG............111...... ..3.3x.......17%
Fortis..........NA....... .1.6x.......1.5%

Shalby......... 42...... ..7.9x.......9.5%
Valuation :

Pre offer shares : 88654932
Post offer shares : 108009770
PAT last yr : 625000000 rs

Eps pre offer : 7.1,post offer : 5.7
@248 PE => 42 (2017)

2017 margin 18.7%, 2018Q1 margin 16%

If give 10% growth in revenue i.e 366cr
PAT 58.5cr(16% margin)

EpS : 5.4 => PE :45 (2018)

just forget peers and think 9% CAGR top line and m.cap = 8x sales, deserves
45 PE valuation???

In my opinion : A big No.
Peers trading 70-100PE but they trading 2-3x of sales only,
I m seeing whole sector as a overvalued.

35 PE good = 5.4*35 =190rs + 10% due to mkt condition
= 220 INR (fair value imo)

Listing may b : Flat to negative (khadim type)

Still Future perspective good, after 2019 it can b good bet due to expansion plans.
Rii forms reqd = 1.19L near,
5 L forms may come i.e 1/4 to 1/5 allotment chances.

I m applying(with sold kostak only) , otherwise imo it''s clear avoid as of now, wait for better ones !!
U may decide after seeing 2nd day subscription fig or till SPT review.

47.13. ParthMandani  Dec 15, 2017 7:03:20 PM IST

Shalby Limited IPO

Hello Gamble sir,
With due respect, you said fair value is 190+10%(due to mkt condition)=220
But 10% of 190 is 19
190+19 = Rs. 209
So is the fair value (acc to you) 209 or 220??
I want to know because I want to plan my Stop loss accordingly.
47.14. gamble  Dec 15, 2017 8:39:20 PM IST

Shalby Limited IPO

Baccho ko calculator/mobile se dur rkhe aur maths k 2-3 tuition lagwaye taki esi galtiya na ho !!!

210 what i should hv written instead of 220,

But when stock going down it''s not matter 220/210/200....
5-10% movement doesn''t matter

IT''s not that it will come at 210 and then take sharp U turn. Or
It may not even come 210

But this 190-210 is range which one can prefer to buy for meaningfull return(imo)
46. gamble  Dec 15, 2017 11:03:52 AM IST Reply

Astron Paper & Board Mill Ltd IPO

Current subject to is 7.5-7.8k,

Grey player must be kidding!!
45. gamble  Dec 12, 2017 8:46:55 PM IST Reply

Astron Paper & Board Mill Ltd IPO

............... Astron paper & board mill......
=>Incorporated in 2010,mainly associated with production of kraft paper and supply that to paper/boxes packaging industry,
=> complete fresh issue of 70cr
=> Major selling shareholder(promotor)
AGL avg acquisition rate was 9rs (vs issue upper price 50rs)

M. Cap (50rs) = 232cr
PAT cagR : 55%
PBT cagr : 20%
REVENUE caGr : 10%
... Past 3 yr CaGR''s...

Good Financing in taxes(All companies must have smart CA now a days!!)


................. P/E*......P/S.....ronw.. . sales cagr

Astron......... 23....... 1.26x......22%....10%
South.......... 15.......0.9x.........9%...... .5%
Ajit pulp.... .. 17.......0.5x........7%....... 5%
Genus.......... 36........1.1x........2%........ 3%
Jk paper....... 12........0.9x........13%.....13%
NR Agarwal.. 10...... .0.75x......58%.....19%
Star paper..... 7...... 1.3x........64%......13%

* last yr(2017) PE
ConcL : NR Agarwal is good pick valuation wise but only in correction(if) , already too much upmove hppned !

Industry outlook : neutral,
Low barrier business, many listed shares hv priced in nxt 1-2 good quarter at their CMP''s.

Pre issue share : 32500000
Post issue share : 46500000

@upper band 50rs,

Pre issue PE : 12, post issue PE : 23

2018 HY1 PAT : 9.4cr,
Full yr estimated sales 200cr, PAT 16cr(margin 8%)

EPS : 3.44 => PE 2018 = 14.53

PE 20 is imo good/fair for 10% revenue, 15% PBT CAGR growth given good promotor and future perspective.

@20 PE price = 68.8rs*(listing price)

If gives value = 1.5x sales = 1.5*200 =300cr
Price = 65 rs(fair value)

1.8x sales = 77 rs (till 1 yr after list).

So in anyways after listing, it will become overvalued among listed peers.
Retail allotment :

Issue may oversubscribe by 30-35x or even higher in rii category, so rare allotment possible. 1/30 type.

Concl :

Apply......... For Listing gain.

For optimum profit subject to sell is
At 5000...u sold at 67(good)
At 6000...u sold at 71(better)
At 7000...u sold at 75(best)

Consider All above👆 as an imo only!!

45.7. gamble  Dec 14, 2017 5:21:57 PM IST

Astron Paper & Board Mill Ltd IPO

Not seen rhp in detail, but not sure about good listing gains,
If you hv good holding capacity then can take risk.
Otherwise not ''blind subscribe'' case imo.
45.8. Hari ji  Dec 15, 2017 8:48:38 AM IST
44. gamble  Nov 12, 2017 6:40:10 PM IST Reply

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO


Listing may be whatever but below issue price(770),
Good buy if available below 720/10 imo....

Within sometime ( 100 days ) it may cross GiC price either directly or indirectly !!

44.2. yazoo  Nov 13, 2017 10:15:41 AM IST

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO

Discount within 6 and 12 % was what i was looking at and 10 is a sweet spot where it fell to
can go to max 15% discount !! will lic or fis rescue at that point is the question !!
44.3. ipo hni  Dec 14, 2017 12:48:53 AM IST

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO

Gamble sir pls advice what to do now ?? Shall we average and buy more ?? From where it will stop falling??
43. gamble  Dec 2, 2017 8:56:39 PM IST Reply

Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd IPO

...... Future Supply Chain Solution Ltd.......
1 of the largest 3PL player,
Providing services in
- contract logistics (70%)
- Express logistics (20%)
- Temperature control logistics(4%)
=>14 hubs and 106 branches across India (including franchisees and 12 of which are co-located on the same premises as our hubs), covering 11,235 pin codes across 29 states and 5 union territories.
- approximately 687 containerised vehicles, including 257 GPS-enabled vehicles of which 144 are refrigerated
: high speed cross belt sarter(one of its kind in IND ) , became operational in July 2017(Net margin booster!!!)

Avg buy rate of
selling shareholder(Griffin) : 323 rs
Promotor (FEL) : 23.5rs
Peer : only Mahindra Logistics Ltd (MLL)

.................................. .MLL............ FSC
PAT CAGR..................11%............. .36%
REVENUE CAGR....... 17%...............17%
Margin(''17)................ 1.72%...........8%**

CAGR r for past 3 yrs nly.
FSC lagging only on No. 5
*roughly calculated
** highest among all listed player.

@664,EPS(''17)=11.4 => PE :58

EPS(''18) = 15.7rs(Assumed from giving 20% revenue growth with 9% margin)

=> 2018 PE =42

Now mahindra logistics (@442) trading 55 PE and 3140cr m.cap with same EBITDA(HY18) and PAT(''17),with 1/4th net margin , 17/20th PAT(HY18) so mkt may give the exact same m.cap to FSC also
@3140cr m. Cap FSC price = 784 Rs(on or before 2018 GATE examination result)
Or simply 50 PE = 785 INR

Listing @45 PE = 707rs*
(nifty above 9800 preferable!! )

Same 55 PE as Mahlog => Price : 864rs(1 yr)
I m bullish on whole logistics sector due to this Key drivers :
1) GST
2) Infra status given to logistics players
Rii forms reqd 1.55L near so, allotment ratio may 1/4 to 1/5
Apply for short-mid-long term, expected listing gain 1 FD!!

Consider all Above 👆 As an Imo.

43.12. Market kid  Dec 8, 2017 3:43:40 PM IST

Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd IPO

Amit bruh gamble posted reviw on 2nd dec, which is i most like of him, other shouting on last day only

I also have applied 3 but will buy more 3-5 on listing,

In subscription figures Fii contributing most, so yes you seems right of not list in negative, seems another high beta listing after flop show of shalby and good of Hdfc?
43.13. Cool Sunshine  Dec 8, 2017 6:54:07 PM IST

Future Supply Chain Solutions Ltd IPO

Everyone has their own style and that is the beauty of this forum. It gives multiple styles, strategies, perspective ,techniques ,timings etc etc. It is pointless to say,fight and argue about which ,what
and who, someone likes or otherwise. It is upto individuals to accept or ignore someone or something.
Suggest avoiding direct or indirect boastful rant but focus on what someone can give back to this forum while utilising it for their own financial gains.
42. gamble  Nov 29, 2017 2:52:29 PM IST Reply

Shalby Limited IPO

Capacit''E @425 , it was just matter of time !!!

2 month 4 FD, isn''t that amazing? ?

57. gamble Sep 25, 2017 11:22:59 AM IST Reply
Capacit''e Infraprojects Limited IPO

All who brought capacit''''E do not panic... Biggie will surely enter into this... This 350/340 is very attractive price range imo...

CagR of 157% is really rare...!

Just wait and watch..!

if comes down 15% more(tough!! ) then average it later.. !
42.8. CLD  Dec 2, 2017 10:34:29 PM IST

Shalby Limited IPO

Gamble ji

I have a whats up group for secondary market for investors only. Some of my members mentioned about your knowledge & expertise.

I would request you to join my group "MARKET MASTERS". All disciplined & respectable members sharing true information for benefit of all.

Let me know if you are interested.
42.9. BullOverBear  Dec 2, 2017 11:42:23 PM IST

Shalby Limited IPO


Please share your opinion on adding more of them to portfolio.
41. gamble  Nov 28, 2017 8:26:09 PM IST Reply

Shalby Limited IPO

Shalby multispeciality ipo - Overpriced ipo, avoid or apply with sell on kostak,

Will provide detail analysis till tommo.
40. gamble  Nov 13, 2017 11:12:25 AM IST Reply

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO

I was not expecting this quick 3% gain,
Anyway reducing some quantity @742,it was good trade!!

Now premium nikl jayega aaj ke profit se, may b!!

349.1. gamble Nov 13, 2017 10:10:09 AM IST 1 |
IPO Guru (1500+ Posts, 2800+ Likes)

Added some @719.5 placed limit earlier,

If it go down '''''''' Medicliam premium Nahi bharenge'''''''' !!!!!
40.1. Prashant Hemrajani  Nov 20, 2017 1:49:15 PM IST

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO

Sir share your view on nia and gic now... what to do
40.2. lakkiboy  Nov 28, 2017 11:07:30 AM IST

The New India Assurance Company Limited IPO

@gamble ji, Holding talkwalkers from 310 level and around 6 months.. i dont see any upside... Canni continue to hold?
39. gamble  Nov 20, 2017 9:47:13 AM IST Reply

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Still mahindra logistics struggling but contra bet working very well,
GATI soaring with above 3FD, refer,,

44. gamble Oct 29, 2017 7:42:03 PM IST Reply
Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO

Contra bet....

As gives optional buy frm secondary mkt in mostly all ipos, here''''s for MLL

Below 2 logistics stocks

=> Allcargo(168)..... .18PE,Sales 5580cr vs m.cap 4128cr

=> Gati(116)........25PE,sales 1690cr vs M.cap 1265cr

Expected return :
1FD till MLL list(not sure)
3FD till mid FY18(confident)

Mostly all logistics companies hv given good numbers in Q1 compare to last FY,
Green signal to shift from high beta, overvalued sector to this sector????

39.6. Aniketiaf  Nov 21, 2017 4:11:13 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

SKM EGG again up by 20%(intraday)
39.7. Djds  Nov 21, 2017 5:01:37 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Gamble bhai can i get ur idea on k to buy or not
38. gamble  Nov 17, 2017 10:41:29 AM IST Reply

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

That''s why management was soooooooo confident,
Listing ki setting ho chuki thi!!

48. gamble Nov 7, 2017 9:33:54 PM IST Reply
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Again management(HDfC life chairman) said price of 290rs is discount price, 22 anchor investor which hdfc life received they had never applied before in any Indian mkt ipo that show how we r best in class!!! (kahne ka matlab hai log mar rhe hai hamare ipo me invest krne k liye!! )

Also added enough room for immediate return !!! (wo chhahte ki immediate return mile)

But very much confident for mid to long term return. (mid term return to accha milega hi milega if invested at ipo price(290)!!)

Confidence or overconfidence ??

This much aggressiveness? ??
lagta hai listing ki setting ho chuki hai ! !! 😉
38.1. Lionkingnmr  Nov 17, 2017 10:49:34 AM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

I would say it is TRUST on their Brand name which they have built in decades. Mr Parekh is wizard.
37. gamble  Nov 6, 2017 2:30:55 PM IST Reply

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

........... HDFC Standard life.............
(sar utha ke jiyo !!)
=> valuation(@290)

2017 PE 65,PB 15,
But 2017 gone, let''s focus on future!!

2018 Half yr EPS 2.77,Full expected 5.5, BV 24.5 => PE : 52, PB : 11.9

EV = 140.10 billion, M.cap = 58277cr
P/EV = 4.2

Note : P/EV means m.cap/Ev which is imp parameter to compare insurance peers.
=> peers

.............. Hdfc Lyf..... . Sbi Lyf...... Icici pru

P/EV.......... 4.2x..............4x.............3.4x
PAT CaGr*....11%..........10.5%.........1%
NBP cagr......18%..........9.2%.........9.1%
AUM cagr......23%..........16%..........12%

* CAGr of 3 yr, 2016-2018(expected)
NBP = New business premium
Taken value of sbi lyf 650rs,icici pru 390,hdfc lyf 290rs
Just look this 👇

Last 6 month(ended sep17) performance with YOY half yearly comparison

.... EPS 2.77 vs 2.33
.....PAT 555cr vs 464cr
.... BV 22.32 vs 18.32
SBI life
.... EPS 5.39 vs 4.29
.....PAT 538cr vs 428cr
.....BV 61.82 vs 51.72
Icici Pru life
.....EPS 5.76 vs 5.75
....PAT 827cr vs 823cr
.....BV 47.59 vs 47.63

it''s clear that icici pru is lagging in almost all parameters, so hdfc life can command higher valuation than pru and also somewhat superior than sbi life

=> Just give same PE(2018) of sbi life
. i.e 61*5.5 =335 ( 3 month target after list)

=> PB 12.5 = 306*(listing tgt)


RII 18.5L near form reqd for 1x,so almost everyone should get allotment imo

=> conclusion

I M applying big time in this superior-Class quality brand with holding period of 3 month( temporarily decided),
expected listing gain 0.5FD!!

Contra call :
Buy sbi life near 640type(if possible )
Buy icici pru near 380type(if possible)

37.15. gamble  Nov 17, 2017 9:51:08 AM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Listing beyond imagination,

Was expecting 306 type but now can see 310-11 type,

Booking partially only to set some cash free. !!!
37.16. Market kid  Nov 17, 2017 10:06:11 AM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

This time in hdfc, You are the only guru, other expert fails

Man gye bruh.
36. gamble  Nov 13, 2017 9:36:40 PM IST Reply

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

ET report : Management super confident !!

Talking to ET Now, Bharat 22 ETF Launch - Nimesh Shah , MD & CEO, ICICI Prudential AMC , says the way they have selected you can say this is a very good value index also.

Edited excerpts :

Markets are up and you have been hiding, it should be the other way round?

We have not been hiding, we have been talking to the customers, we have been talking to the distributors. The business is growing very fast. We believe that the retail investors should be properly informed what they are getting into. A lot of money is coming in and we need to be very careful and as the markets go up, we need to explain big time to the retail investors that as the market goes up the risk also goes up. The risk return trade-off has to be understood by the retail investors well. A lot of travelling is happening across India and it is great to be in touch with the real India on a continuous basis.
But Bharat 22 ETF could be that one-stop destination where you can really bet on this ETF or buy the NFO and participate in the India growth story. Let me start with a very simple question;
what is Bharat 22 ETF all about?
The government has decided to divest their holdings in a unique way instead of simply getting the institutional investors in. The government’s idea was that why do not we get the common man into this, to share the India growth story with the common man.

After we got the mandate there was so much to and fro with the government in terms of which we have selected the stocks.
The representation is by design, it is not by default. The government had large ownership on L&T or Axis Bank. That is why Axis Bank weightage is high. This is something which you have pitched, your AMC has designed, it is not by default?
We and the government both felt that we could have 40%. We wanted a diversification not only amongst the private sector companies but also the government companies. Holdings around 40% would be private sector companies and around 60% is government holding. It was designed that way.
In India, the ETF route is not very popular and an NFO of an ETF may sound easy but would an ordinary investor say it is too complicated?
The only requirement is anybody who owns stocks will have a demat account. ETF is the right route in this particular case because it is not only a passive investment, I will explain why. Though it is a ETF, it is going to be rebalanced every year. Also, there are stock limits and there are sector limits also. Suppose those limits are hit, suppose a particular set of stocks do well and just to give an example, a particular stock, say ITC is at 15% over here and suppose that goes up in value to 18 or 19% of the portfolio, then by the year end I have to cut that position and bring it back to 15%.
So though it is passive investment, there is automatic profit booking. This is one of the smart beta factors that we have brought into this fund that we will rebalance it every year so profits will be booked and you get the index back every March.
At a very low entry load, one is getting an option to indirectly participate in ETF where there is going to be a dynamic churn every year depending on the market conditions?
In fact, there is a positive entry load. There is a 3% discount that the government has given on shares so there is no entry load. If you give me Rs 100 you get Rs 100 but you get that stock at 3% discount. So in effect, the entry load is at minus 3%. That is a positive thing for the investor.
36.12. Lahari  Nov 15, 2017 10:40:57 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

3% Discount.. No use...ICICI direct will recover this amount in the name of charges.
36.13. MBL  Nov 15, 2017 11:07:17 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Gamble ji any 3-4 stocks for a period of 1 year
35. gamble  Oct 31, 2017 8:17:17 PM IST Reply

Khadim India Limited IPO

............... Khadim''s....................
Fashion for everyone!!!
=>2nd largest footwear(as per retail stores concerned)
=>Good presence in East and south
=> 829 retail Khadim''s stores
=> m.cap = 1350cr near
Avg price of acquisition :
Promotor :
Knightsville Private Limited = ₹ 3.52
Siddhartha Roy Burman = ₹ 6.55
PE investor :
Fairwinds = ₹ 153.79
Valuation :
@750 rs, PE 2017 = 43

FY18 Q1 EPS =4.11
(should b max that any footwear brand post in whole yr, check bata, relaxo)

Expected 2018 EPS 13-15.
Take 14=> PE : 53
............ .....Khadim... Bata.... Relaxo... Liberty

Sales cagr.... 10%......5%.......15%.....8%
PaT cagr..... 32%**......-.........28%......4%

**Posted loss in 2015 so not much reliable
Branded Footwear expected to grow 15% CAGR in nxt 5 yr, but how much u taking Khadim as a brand, depends on u and ur location !!!

Macchar maar rhe hote hai ye bade brand wale sare din, in hope of koi murga aa jaye aur hum pakda de!!
Competition will only get tougher and tougher from here on, hundreds of local brand emerging, difficult to sustain for khadims even at 5% margin imo.

I M seeing whole footwear industry as a overvalued as per current scenario,
Yes, Relaxo may be good pick if targeting 2-3 years

My fair price :
50PE 2018 = 14*50 = 700INR or below.

Giving 50PE just based on peers and mkt conditions, otherwise should not command above 40 PE imo.


As per grey and mkt conditions you may get some like 5% listing gain but i m not seeing any,
If really want to confirm listing gain then wait and watch till last day subscription.

I M avoiding in any cases.

35.18. gamble  Nov 15, 2017 2:56:57 PM IST

Khadim India Limited IPO

Galabhai don''t know, sharp fall in mkt is half reason other may b rcom, today i averaged rhfL but now no more fresh buying.don''t kn whether it''s worth averaging or not.

@rsk agree, but now no point given 30PE also.
35.19. rsk  Nov 15, 2017 3:01:09 PM IST

Khadim India Limited IPO

lol, cut of 20 in PE. amazing
34. gamble  Oct 18, 2017 11:09:40 AM IST Reply

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Do not scared of 40-50 rs movement kip strict sl 599 and hold for 700+....

Disc : alloted 32,sold half 16 @660
34.16. gamble  Nov 14, 2017 2:55:45 PM IST

MAS Financial Services Ltd IPO

Check high dear chem cho 700+.
34.17. Chem cho  Nov 15, 2017 2:21:07 PM IST
33. gamble  Nov 6, 2017 4:19:02 PM IST Reply

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

Don''t judge too quickly, this is 1st day of Nippon life AMC and here msgs floating like today was the last day,

Actually it''s good for people applied and not Alloted can buy with lower premium.

Still it giving u 13% return, so if Not comfortable then better exit without irritating/blaming urself daily .

Otherwise kip some patience and
hold #320-40 pending.
33.10. Djds  Nov 9, 2017 10:15:09 AM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

Gamble guru kaun se stock main invest kare
.aur vijaya bank ka target price?say some companies to invest
33.11. gamble  Nov 10, 2017 10:13:51 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

All good and Diversified gala bhai, especially GATI, OmKar......

RHFL best @this price lake cityji imo

Koi tgt nai hai djdsji , if bought near 60 then 74 good, if upper entry then decide 20% upper,
But seems golden stock among high npa psbs,
No problem in holding long.

32. gamble  Oct 28, 2017 7:05:35 PM IST Reply

Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO

................. Mahindra Logistics.................
One of Largest 3PL(3rd party logistics) service provider in india.

Providing services in

SCM-supply chain management (90%)
..........Automotive, Engineering, Consumer goods, pharma, E-com industries etc
CLIENTS : Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz etc

PTS-people Transport solutions (10%)
.........IT,Financial,ITes, consulting, Manufacturing industries etc
Kedaara capital bought 23%stack @122(in 2014) and selling 13.5% stack @429

SubsidiarieS :
2*2 logistics, Lords fright
Earlier were loss making but in last 3, 6 mnths made profit !!
Peers : no exact comparable but still nearly peers

............... . M.cap...... PE..... 5 yr CAGR....mcap/sales
TCI.......... 2130cr........30..........0%....1.10
All cargo...4100cr.......20.........6%.....0.75
Vrl........... 3200cr........43.........11%.... 1.8

Above taken only consideration of m.cap similarity

Other logistics player trading,
Aegis 64PE , Allcargo 18PE(good pick for med term! )

Avg logistics ind PE : 52.8

So, price band is not much high if see overall picture,

Mahindra other group share,
Mahindra CiE trading much higher PE ratio than its peer,so this one may also !!
Valuation :

Profit margin : 1.7%(big negative)

5 yr PAT caGr,income CaGr :18%, 15%
3 yr PAT cagR, income CagR: 17%,11%

2016-18 PAT,income CagR(expected) : 23%,25%

@429, 2017 PE 64,

2018 Q1 EPS 2.18, Estimated 7.5-9
Take 8 rs => 2018 PE : 53

Ind PE 53,but taking consideration of good growth,strong group, enrich mkt conditions, much more business opportunity to grow than former logistics company we may give xtra 5 PE to this one,

58*8 = 464(listing tgt)
60*8 = 480( till uttrayan)
Favorable statements:

Overall logistics ind to grow 13% caGr in nxt 3 yr, while 3PL ind to grow 21%cagr,

So good opportunity for mahindra logistics to use this growth and unlock it''s true value.

If MLL can increase PAT margin just near 3% in coming yrs(After GST seems possible) , then MLL has set price band 30PE of 2019(attractive)!!
Allotment :

Nearly 1.97L forms reqd for 1x
Due to Nippon, khadim,niA and virtually higher price band expecting only 6-7L or below forms,
Allotment ratio may : 1/3 (Fair possibility/ almost confirmed, linkintime 😊)


Subscribe for short mid long term ,possible listing gain 1-1.5 FD!

For listing gain confirmation you may wait till 3rd day 1.30pm(to check subsc fig) or till SPT says avoid!!!

M applying in any cases.

Note : GMP going down steadily with low volume , may only stabilise near 20-25!!

32.21. Cool Sunshine  Nov 10, 2017 12:27:16 PM IST

Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO

@593.20. Khemka

On a lighter note.......I would be very happy with 2 or even with 1 fd if it is guaranteed.
32.22. tnk  Nov 10, 2017 1:06:46 PM IST

Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO

It''s not fd interest, its OD interest gone
31. gamble  Nov 6, 2017 10:04:08 AM IST Reply

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

Bought some extra @282.. Looking risky but will hold for 2-3 months sl 270
31.6. Kabali  Nov 9, 2017 9:43:47 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

@gamble ji...sir do u track HEG or GRAPHITE India...both graphite electrodes manufacturers shares flying...any comments on these companies?
31.7. Solution of Queries  Nov 10, 2017 12:13:48 PM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

@Kabali ji ,

as Heg & graphite india already run so much , so be caution before making any position from here....!!
30. gamble  Nov 10, 2017 9:56:27 AM IST Reply

Mahindra Logistics Limited IPO

Mahindra logistics..
Listing at par, 429-432
Rii placed limit @429 and will b executed, nii cost almost nil, so overall no gain no loss for all.

Personally i m holding with sl 409 strict 396 type(5%-7% ), after list some Pressure- short sell may come but let see...

Expecting punter play !!

Busy this days so less msgs..
29. gamble  Nov 7, 2017 9:33:54 PM IST Reply

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Again management(HDfC life chairman) said price of 290rs is discount price, 22 anchor investor which hdfc life received they had never applied before in any Indian mkt ipo that show how we r best in class!!! (kahne ka matlab hai log mar rhe hai hamare ipo me invest krne k liye!! )

Also added enough room for immediate return !!! (wo chhahte ki immediate return mile)

But very much confident for mid to long term return. (mid term return to accha milega hi milega if invested at ipo price(290)!!)

Confidence or overconfidence ??

This much aggressiveness? ??
lagta hai listing ki setting ho chuki hai ! !! 😉

29.6. Tan  Nov 8, 2017 12:05:38 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

I guess this is what they teach them in B-Schools.Selling anything and extracting the maximum, however bad that thing may be. 🤑
Govt. Insurance companies don''t need the hype bcoz LIC is their saviour,but a firm with PB of 15 does. 😛
29.7. Aniketiaf  Nov 8, 2017 3:53:09 PM IST

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd IPO

Total 08 lots (02 lots each account).
28. gamble  Nov 5, 2017 6:05:07 PM IST Reply

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

R Nippon listing expectations....

Near 308-317rs

@308 rs (45 PE)
@317 rs (10 PB)

10PB looks overvalued but with compared to what??

First AMC to list on bourses, 20% cagr possible nxt 5 yr AMC business,

So mkt may give higher valuation like
PE 50 (340) - PB 12(380),

U just needed
- strong holding capacity (minimum 3 month) and some trust in Nippon life.

Avoid listing day gambling/intra play .

Discl : Alloted 2 lots,
will try to sell 1st at 340 (within 2 month if possible)
28.6. gamble  Nov 6, 2017 6:32:59 AM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

Some part exited in recent rally, some still trap.
Too much rise of 40% before quarterly result looks fishy, so exited some,

28.7. Khemka  Nov 6, 2017 10:09:09 AM IST

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd IPO

First time gamble taking risk of predicting ipo listing buisness imo .but your rate may become resistance range .
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